cagdart

Commodity futures

[AI @nonewthing]

You deserve this more than anyone, Arsenal fans.

22 years of hurt. 22 years of ridicule. 22 years of pain.

All ends in glory.

[cagdart @cagdart]

Welcome to markets

[AetherRev @AetherRev]

@CardChaseFun Couldn’t you just go long then buy up all the inventory and make the price go up. Then go short and dump all the inventory and make the price go down. Also how does this take fakes into account.

[cagdart @cagdart]

@FootballEra_ Gyokeres is the reason for the shit attacking performance

[cagdart @cagdart]

@KonstantinKisin Both things can be true:

Mandelson issue clearly needs investigating - how did we end up pushing a nonce into government?

Structural issues are being ignored and have been for years on end

[peepeepoopoo @DeepDishEnjoyer]

that's how i feel when i put on trades in this market

[cagdart @cagdart]

Odegaards bf% is too high. Needs some ice creams to reduce his cortisol.

[cagdart @cagdart]

This is a reminder that you will one day be on your deathbed and regret having not completed that Duolingo course.

[Anglo Futurism Capital LP 🇬🇧🐿️ @RollingHedge]

Excellent thread, this. Something I’ve spent a lot of time thinking about…

The British state is run by people who have never been fired, never missed a number, never had a client scream at them, never stayed up until 3am working on a deal, or repricing a book because Tokyo opened badly.

They have never experienced CONSEQUENCE. Ever.

THAT is the single most important fact in British public life.

The pipeline is so uniform and mediocre it scarcely needs describing:

- School
- PPE or adjacent
- Civil Service fast stream or a Think Tank research role
- Spell as local councillor to appear “grounded,”
- Then a safe seat and a red box before 40

At no point has the market ever called them a moron.

At no point has a P&L told them their idea was shit.

The feedback loop that every private sector professional takes for granted simply does not exist in their world.

This matters because policy is NOT an essay. It IS a trade. Every regulation has a cost, every tax has a behavioural response, every intervention has second and third order consequences.

In markets, if you misread convexity you get carried out. In government, you get reshuffled to a different department.

The incentive structure could not be more perfectly designed to retain the incompetent and repel the capable.

Anyone with genuine commercial talent is earning multiples of a ministerial salary by their early thirties. So the applicant pool self selects for people for whom the title is the reward because they could never command that status where performance is measured.

The think tank ecosystem makes it worse.
IPPR, the Resolution Foundation, JRF and the rest function as ideological finishing schools and revolving doors. They produce people fluent in the language of policy who have never implemented anything. They can model a distributional impact assessment in their sleep but could not run a corner shop at profit.

This is NOT intelligence. It is pattern matching within a closed system that never tests its own assumptions because everyone in it shares the same priors.

The civil service compounds it further. The fast stream rewards generalism, rotating you through departments every 18 to 24 months to develop “breadth,” which in practice means you never develop depth.

A Treasury official who helped design a tax policy in 2019 is working on transport by the time it starts distorting behaviour in 2022. Nobody owns the outcome.

The private sector has one thing the state fundamentally lacks: a kill switch.

Bad companies go bust.

Bad traders get sacked.

The state just absorbs failure, reclassifies it as “lessons learned,” and promotes the people responsible.

The compound effect of thirty years of this is a permanent class institutionally incapable of delivering growth or even understanding why the private sector they depend on for revenue keeps shrinking under their stewardship. This is what we have, right now.

You cannot fix this with better people inside the same system. The system selects against competence, insulates against feedback, and rewards survival over performance.

Every parliament is just a fresh rotation of the same profile through the same machine expressing the same surprise when nothing improves.

We need parallel institutions to be built by the guy or gal staying up til 3am repricing the book. The risk taker. The entrepreneur.

Then we gradually phase the existing sclerotic failed structures out.

That’s how we win.

Make Britain Great Again 🇬🇧 💪

[cagdart @cagdart]

@CRUDEOIL231 Not as if Iran wouldn’t have planned for this outcome

[cagdart @cagdart]

@lukejcr Restore themselves couldn’t have put out better marketing ffs

[cagdart @cagdart]

Please can this crash back to support

Want to load up on monad emo and hype

[cagdart @cagdart]

Could see this creating an exit opportunity for early investors soon

Then potentially a solid buy

Naval Ravikant involved so fundamentals are good

[Zhu Su @zhusu]

Brutal feeling when you’re watching some shortform ai fruitslop, you change apps for a moment, then you come back and the slop is gone and there are no words you could possibly use to search for that specific piece of slop.

[cagdart @cagdart]

@spectatorindex He has somewhat reduced the meaning of winning in the last few weeks

[cagdart @cagdart]

@spectatorindex What is the US incentive to open the strait?

Their relationships with other countries are mostly bad

They’re sorted for oil anyway

Why do they care?

[AI @nonewthing]

Nothing is wrong with Zubimendi. People are just looking for a scapegoat to talk about and looking in the wrong place.

[cagdart @cagdart]

This giminez lad would be quality if he wasn’t such a diva

[cagdart @cagdart]

Arsenal definitely have the self sabotage gene (ironically the same as spurs)

Likely developed from punching above our weight with with a bunch of kids in the wenger era

[cagdart @cagdart]

Not by any means a gyokeres fan but boy can he strike a ball

[cagdart @cagdart]

@olliefirth_ If there’s no creativity in midfield you can’t have timber and hincapie at the back

[cagdart @cagdart]

@Matteoo_afc Havertz and Zubi earned it with what he had achieved already w international and top flight experience

Not the case for hale end

See the wenger years for reference