CaGR Quest Capital

🇮🇳 | Evolving | Market Participant | Retweets Not = Endorsements | Not SEBI Registered | Nothing is a Recommendation I Do your own Research & Due Diligence

[CaGR Quest Capital @CaGRQuestCap]

@LearningEleven AI stocks globally were close to making a bottom.
Selling exhaustion seen in MTAR today at Monthly support levels.
Bloom Energy has made a bottom day before yesterday and is up 15% today, so MTAR may follow suit, unfortunately daily move is capped due to surveillance measure.

[CaGR Quest Capital @CaGRQuestCap]

@LearningEleven Couldn’t agree more.
Reading and knowing about as many companies as possible also creates familiarity and helps press the trigger immediately if such results are as per or exceed one’s expectations!!

[Hitesh Randhawa @HiteshRandhawa]

In a cyclical sector or business, when impact of cyclicality is reduced (due to structural changes) making the business performance and cashflows more predictable, the valuations move to and settle at a higher base!

[Hitesh Randhawa @HiteshRandhawa]

#ATULAUTO Will market pay attention? Is it waiting for further confirmation?

Q1FY27 sales volume is up by more than 42% which is the highest in last many quarters.

So what are the drivers?

From FY23 AR- “As part of its core strategy, the Company is tapping on export markets where our product is suitable to the needs of the customers… The Company is taking further steps to widen its international marketing network.”

Exports were 7%-8% of sales in FY23.

In FY25 AR - Company calls export uptick “a testimony to the Company’s growing global footprint” and explicitly says they want exports to move from ~7–8% of revenue to >20% over time.

Exports rose to ~14% of sales in FY25, and are ~16% of Q1FY27 sales!!!

Since Sept'2025 company has consistently started selling more than 2000-2200 ICE 3W vehicles.

Since Aug'2025 company has consistently started exporting more than 450-500 ICE 3W vehicles.

The drag has been the EV vehicle sales which is still EBITDA negative.

Q1 is seasonally weak relatively speaking but it is interesting to see that Q1FY27 in EV segment has clocked almost same sales volume as Q4FY26 and 6% higher over Q1FY26.

Company has a capacity of 120,000 vehicles and is operating at ONLY 32% capacity utilization.

So, the company has done reasonably well in past few months and expanded margins as well, DESPITE the drag from EBITDA negative EV division and such low capacity utilization.

Therefore, if the current exports momentum continues and even if EV segment is able to break even then the company might still do well going forward.

EV turning around for good would be icing on the cake.

The company is taking various steps like, tying up with Exponent Energy (Atul's vehicles will be integrated with OTO three-wheeler mobility platform - a unified architecture bringing together best-in-class battery technology, powertrain systems, and vehicle software. Exponent's proprietary technology enables 15 minutes rapid charge and claims to be the fastest globally for commercial vehicles).
Atul has also brought back Paul Zachariah who had been an old timer at the company and was recently with Kinetic Green Energy & Power Solutions Ltd.

Next few quarters therefore should be worth tracking for #ATULAUTO

Main monitorables or Risks are:
1. Atul's EV division turning around
2. Risk due to EVs eroding domestic ICE profits faster than Atul’s EV business can scale and turn profitable.
3. Atul's distributor expansion in other geographies outside Gujarat.

P.S. Read standard disclaimer/disclosure on my profile. This is not a buy/sell recommendation and I own a small position in this company.

[CaGR Quest Capital @CaGRQuestCap]

@LearningEleven #EmmforceAutotech

Valuations reasonable, capability & R&D (2% of revenue) looks good.
Healthy EBITDA margins of ~20% despite low capacity utilization!

Entire CAPEX is front loaded.

Small company when uses Japanese equipment over cheaper Chinese alternatives says a lot too!

[Hitesh Randhawa @HiteshRandhawa]

#MCX entire Q1FY27 turnover data is available now.

Calculated MCX estimates for Q1FY27 basis that.

Q1FY27 PAT shows as ~400 Crs, say a range between 390-410 Crs.

This snapshot shows comparison of Q1FY26, Q3FY26 and Q4FY26 results with Q1FY27 estimates.

P.S. Numbers can be entirely wrong, do your own due diligence.

[CaGR Quest Capital @CaGRQuestCap]

#CORDELIA #WaterwaysLeisure #WaterwaysLeisureTourism

[Hitesh Randhawa @HiteshRandhawa]

#CORDELIA had poor listing and fell ~22% below issue price at one point yesterday.

But, not sure if it is that bad at current price.
I had marked 550-650 as buy zone, therefore disclosure upfront that I have bought yesterday and today morning as well.

Given the poor subscription and poor listing, it is entirely possible that I am horribly wrong on this one.

Mgmt. on CNBC said that 2000-3000 Crs of topline is possible by FY29 once both new vessels get commissioned and EBITDA margins can be in 35%-40% range.

Currently they operate 1 vessel and 2nd one expected to get commissioned in Oct-2026 and 3rd one Oct-Nov 2027, therefore FY29 would be first full year of all vessels contributing together.

If they do 2390 Crs topline in FY29 and even if I take EBITDA margins to be 27%, then works out to 680 Crs EBITDA.
Current topline 580 Crs and EBITDA 115 Crs.

From valuation PoV, as there is no listed peer, I consider Wonderla and Hotels as closest as business valuation parallels.

Wonderla Trades at at 16 times EV/EBITDA, if I ascribe 20 times to CORDELIA (if I am right then market may discount the growth earlier and ascribe higher valuations during this period) on FY 29 EBITDA of 680 Crs, then EV works out to 13,600 Crs. (Current EV 5180 Crs.).

P.S. I am still looking at this and above are back of the envelope calcs, please do your own due diligence.

#WaterwaysLeisure #WaterwaysLeisureTourism

[Hitesh Randhawa @HiteshRandhawa]

Would #MCX Q1 result be Poor, Terrible or Horrible this time? 😐😐😐

[Hitesh Randhawa @HiteshRandhawa]

#QualitekLabs #QLL #SME is worth a look!!

https://t.co/xKMWqnn5yB

[CaGR Quest Capital @CaGRQuestCap]

#SILKFLEX (Silkflex Polymers (India) Ltd)

[Hitesh Randhawa @HiteshRandhawa]

Study #SILKFLEX (Silkflex Polymers (India) Ltd)

Comes across as a business where one may get surprised to see what valuations market is willing to pay!!!

Product is good.
Global brands approved.
Global certifications approved.
Demand drivers in place.
Exclusive distributor and manufacturing rights.
Venturing from pure trading to high margin manufacturing.
Scope to manufacture many other products for Silkflex Malaysia.
Very scalable business with good opportunity size.

Looks like a good case of earnings growth plus valuation re-rating (valuations look pretty cheap to me).).

Reminds me a lot of #SIRCApaints both listing scenario wise and business wise.

#Sirca was also into similar sector with exclusive distributor rights and then manufacturing for some Italian MNC.

Sirca had listed in 2018-2019 and once bear mkt got over in 2020 then moved up, similar thing here too (not that it means anything and just highlighting a technical commonality too).

Discl: Invested and biased

#SilkflexPolymers

[CaGR Quest Capital @CaGRQuestCap]

@LearningEleven #EmmforceAutotech

Valuations reasonable, capability & R&D (2% of revenue) looks good.
Healthy EBITDA margins of ~20% despite low capacity utilization!

Entire CAPEX is front loaded.

Small company when uses Japanese equipment over cheaper Chinese alternatives says a lot too!

[CaGR Quest Capital @CaGRQuestCap]

@LearningEleven Which are the SMEs you are looking at Sekhar Bhai.
Have you looked at Emmforce Autotech Ltd by any chance.
This looks very interesting and away from limelight at this moment!

Discl: Biased and invested.

[Avipreet @avipreet]

3rd June end of day analysis for 4th June

Today was a brutal day for #Nifty traders and overall markets in general. On such days, one feels lucky to be on the right side of the index move and risk management skills are tested to the core.

The analysis posted yesterday at https://t.co/6nnTXTxFa9 did not really hold good apart from the fact that we did see a complete V shape recovery from the last support level mentioned in the post i.e. 23150. Also, the index did end with a bullish undertone.

There were multiple factors at play today:
1. Overnight, tensions flared between Iran and other ME countries with fresh reports of Iran attack on Kuwait coming in.
2. Bloomberg published a news article stating that RBI may have sold some #Gold assets to stabilize INR
3. IT Index was down and out with bellwethers #TCS and #INFY down 9 pct (at one point of time) and 4.5 pct.
4. FII sell numbers were already negative as of yesterday.

Inspite of all of this, NIFTY somehow showed a mercurial recovery from the 23150 gap fill level. This was something that fellow traders @rathi_amit , @HiteshRandhawa were rooting for and it happened. Hats off to them! While the sharp recovery came at the back of a resurgent Bank Nifty ,a RBI clarification and a #LTCG waiver rumor all of which could not have come in a minute too late, it still left a sour taste for folks who were both long or short as it ended up eating stop losses on either side.

So, where do we go from here.

1. Change in OI - Neutral to Bullish as seen in the OI change snapshot from #SENSIBULL Pro Traders change in OI is bullish today

2. Price Action - Positive
Nifty ended the day with a dragonfly doji on daily tf. Construed as positive.
Nifty's biggest constituent Bank Nifty ended with a Bullish hammer forming a double or rather triple bottom defending 53000. Bank Nifty could lead the way now and surge ahead pushing Nifty as well

Directional View - Positive on Nifty, again will stay long with immediate targets of 23800 once the 23500-550 zone is crossed. If today's low 23150 is broken, will look to short intraday with target of 23000-22900. Positional view is still long.

Note: All of the above is my own analysis and trading plan for Nifty and other indices, this should not be construed as trading advice in any manner.

[Avipreet @avipreet]

1st June 2026
#NIFTY broke through the crucial psychological level of 23500 today without any issue. Also broke a small trendline support shown below. However, it is close to a potential support level of 23250.

1. Any gap down may result in an immediate reversal given that we are oversold. Also 23500 should act like a magnet and attract straddle sellers for tomorrow's expiry

2. Also, a lot of call writing happened one day prior to 2nd June expiry which was very high as a percentage of total calls written for ATM and near ATM strikes.
For instance: Out of 50 L calls written at 23400, 48 L were written today, and 73 L out of 89 L at 23500. This gives an opportunity for short covering as calls written today would not have a premium cushion to sustain if there are bullish spikes.

Directional View - Look for bullish reversals in case of a gap down supported by reversal seen on smaller timeframes. Can play Nifty positionally long if 23800 is reclaimed.

For Flat opening, will look for a range to be formed and play breakout / breakdown of the range. Note that 23150-23260 is a gap fill zone where Nifty can potentially find support. Below this, 23000 and below will again open up

For Gap Up opening - Observe OI Buildup and price action #NIFTY #NSE

[Hitesh Randhawa @HiteshRandhawa]

#SYRMASGS seems to be playing the long term sustainable game.

Promoter pedigree seems to be top notch.

PCB venture with Shinhyup Electronics if takes off then can be a game changer!

Mgmt. seems to be balanced in their guidance and are walking the talk.
#Syrma can surprise in next 2-3 yrs.

Business and Earnings Quality is improving de-risking it's business model (unlike Dixon, Amber and PGEL's of the world).
Everything they are doing seems to be a very well thought out strategy.

Putting below few links and screenshots that I used in my analysis and discussions, etc.,

Esimates I have posted are my view and are just rough back of the envelope calculations to get a directional view and not a detailed work, therefore please ignore it and come up with your own estimates.

1. Q1FY26 (July 24, 2025) Guidance Summary https://t.co/m6GwzkLJfO

2. AI generated information links to get overview on certain areas given below.

Syrma SGS: BUSINESS ANALYSIS REPORTS

Comprehensive Report on Syrma SGS Technology Limited Promoters
https://t.co/xhgWQZDV9x

Syrma SGS Acquisition History and Competitive Analysis
https://t.co/JQH8FD2WV1

Syrma SGS Technology Business Analysis
https://t.co/MU4k5TT1Vq

Syrma SGS vs Global EMS Leaders Evolution Journey
https://t.co/fsMzDqGFx4

Asian Electronics Firms' India Strategy
https://t.co/H10RKjGZUL

Shinhyup Electronics Business Risk Analysis
https://t.co/kBElECEnYi

Korea Circuit Business Risk Analysis (Amber's JV Partner)
https://t.co/Y5WJmfo2k8

Rexxam Business Risk Assessment (Dixon's JV Partner)
https://t.co/2u2tcTbWA3

P.S.
1. Take everything mentioned in the post and all the data and analysis with bucket of salt as AI generated (not all information maybe correct, objective is to get high level view of the business)
2. Invested, Assume Bias & Vested Interest
3. Read disclaimer/disclosure in Pinned message on the profile
4. Not a recommendation to Buy/Sell (ignore the investment or buy/sell thesis in the AI generated summary; it is not my view and AI generated automatically)
5. Do your own due diligence and consult your financial advisor

#Syrma

[CaGR Quest Capital @CaGRQuestCap]

S Chand & Company Ltd #SCHAND -- Is it a 'Heads I win and Tails I don't lose' story?

[Hitesh Randhawa @HiteshRandhawa]

S Chand & Company Ltd #SCHAND -- Is it a 'Heads I win and Tails I don't lose' story?
CMP - 213
Mkt. Cap. – 750 Crs.

I looked at it few weeks back (600 Crs Mkt Cap, Price 170) and shared the story with few mkt participants but no one was interested and got some good reasons to support their reluctance.
Will state those reasons as well and would like to hear your views on them especially if you have any.

Valuation:
At ₹600 Crores Market Cap, the company presented significant value:
- 6 times EV to CFO (based on average CFO of ₹100 Crores for last 4 years)
- Cash flow based earnings yield of approximately 18%

While the value proposition is strong, growth catalysts are essential for realizing stock performance. The implementation of NCF (National Curriculum Framework) appears to be that catalyst for the next 2 years.

Future Outlook:
- Potential for CFO of ₹150-200 Crores in next 2-3 years
- ₹90-100 Crores PAT seems achievable by FY27
- At ₹600 Crores Market Cap, this represents:
- Approximately 6 times FY27 earnings
- Approximately 4 times EV/CFO going forward

As far as exit multiples are concerned one can ascribe exit multiples on his own.

NOTE:
1. Consolidated document available at this link https://t.co/JDjtGKt2Bt
2. Please read the DISCLAIMER in the document in #1 and the DISCLAIMER in my Bio and Pinned Message
3. Future Outlook given is my interpretation basis the available information and I can be entirely wrong
3. Discl: I am invested in the stock from lower levels and have transacted in last 30 days and intend to transact further

[Hitesh Randhawa @HiteshRandhawa]

Affordable Housing Sector is gaining limelight and maybe has been the strongest sub-sector in this market correction.

For the next 2-3 years, the housing finance industry is projected to grow at 16-17% with the affordable housing segment expected to achieve a 22-23% CAGR!

Quite a few catalysts in place for the sector:
1. #PMAYUrban
2. Govt's mortgage guarantee scheme for lower income group
3. Personal Income Tax slab revision benefits for people earning upto 12 lacs
4. 2nd home tax benefit announced in budget
5. Falling Interest Rates

Had prepared HFC Trends and Outlook report (for personal consumption and few friends) basis Q3FY25 Earnings Call of the companies that can be found here https://t.co/pUOrE2eYfc

Hope the community finds it useful.

#AADHARHFC #AAVAS #INDIASHLTR #HOMEFIRST #APTUS #BAJAJHFL #PNBHOUSING #CANFINHOME #REPCOHOME #LICHSGFIN

[CaGR Quest Capital @CaGRQuestCap]

One thing that RAs and Investors who have come up in last 5 yrs (and use technicals for stop losses) would learn in this bear mkt (assuming it continues) is that there isn't a constant stop loss rule applicable in all types of mkts.
Awareness of what stop loss works in what types of markets and making adjustments accordingly is something that isn't talked about and not given enough importance!!!