Japan's economy in one sentence:
40 years of zombie companies propped up by ultra-low rates, exploding public debt, an aging population, zero productivity growth, and a BOJ that refuses to raise rates while announcing massive stimulus packages as markets hit all-time highs, yields rocket, and real wages fall for the third year in a row.
The richest poor country on earth.
Stagflation won't be pretty.
Everyone is suddenly back to debating who to unfollow because this whole space has turned on itself yet again, so here is my take…
I usually stop following accounts that pump out views when everything is going up and then disappear the moment things turn down, right when the community needs them most.
Most step back because they do not want to be ridiculed. I get it. None of us do. But if you are in this game, it comes with the territory. You have to learn to take the hits...
I have been doing this a long time. I have been more right than wrong over the years, but I have had my fair share of bad takes too. That is the nature of markets. They humble everyone. If you do not like these insights, unfollow. Simple.
What counts is having the courage to stand up, be brave, and be bold when others are fearful. That is how you actually show up for the community when it matters most.
Right now, almost nobody wants to take a view. Everyone has their head buried in the sand and a bullish argument is the last thing anyone wants to hear.
When the market is falling like this it becomes almost impossible to separate signal from noise because every narrative is competing for emotional bandwidth. That is exactly why I am posting this. It is not a call and it is not an opinion. It is fact. Objective, not subjective, is what we need right now.
This market is oversold, but bottoms take time to form (chart 1).
When you look back at past oversold conditions, the path of least resistance has on average been higher following the last five times Bitcoin’s RSI dropped below 30 since this bull market began in Q4 2022 (chart 2).
Important note: If you believe the bull market is finished and we are entering twelve months of pain, these charts are not for you. Move along...
Excited to publish my Crypto Trends Report for 2025!
It frames crypto’s growth as a story of 3 compounding s-curves: asset creation, asset accumulation, and asset utilization
The report applies this lens across five key thematic areas – macro, stablecoins, centralized exchanges, onchain activity, and frontier markets – to predict where the industry may be headed
💸 Liquidity explains everything — and the rest is just noise. @RaoulGMI and @BittelJulien on #TheEverythingCode
From Bitcoin to tech stocks, one macro variable dominates 90–96% of price action.
This simple animated video series answers the question, "How does the #economy really work?" Based on my practical template for understanding the economy.
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This is Part 3, I hope you find these helpful.
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