Calcus Cal

PhD student in Physics/MatSci | Trader/Investor for 3+ years | Views are my own and for education purpose ONLY, NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE | DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH!

[Calcus Cal @CalcusCal]

…FLR at 38, COHU at 19, PDFS at 24.5, OSS at 5, IRDM at 17 and so on. Finding thematic opportunities via unrecognized bottlenecks combined with technicals & fundamentals, and you’ll have a winning strategy and knowledge about the world that people around you haven’t even thought

[Calcus Cal @CalcusCal]

@crux_capital_ Got some $CXDO and $NTNX

[Calcus Cal @CalcusCal]

@Banana3Stocks You should look into $ADEA. I think you’ll like the story there too

[Calcus Cal @CalcusCal]

@pennycheck Call $SHMD my wife the way it tests my patience :/

[Calcus Cal @CalcusCal]

$SPY $QQQ

And some of you crazy Mfs want 24-hour trading??

HELL NO!

[Calcus Cal @CalcusCal]

$PRCT calls up 20% today. Apparently they didn’t get the memo 🥳

[Calcus Cal @CalcusCal]

$PRCT casually up 1.3% today.

[Calcus Cal @CalcusCal]

You heard it here folks, you all need to follow me now :)

[RJC @RJCcapital]

if you’re not down at least 10% today your investment advice is not worth following

[Calcus Cal @CalcusCal]

$SPY $QQQ

Sent multiple warnings of euphoria setting in the market. I had hedges and I'm still down 15% today. When liquidity exits there will be indiscriminate selling across the board. You need to have balls of steel in markets. Pullbacks are healthy and create opportunities. They are a feature not a flaw in my opinion.

What helps with that is conviction in your picks, and what helps with that is deep research behind your picks and intimately knowing what you own.

I cut lot of my lower conviction positions today, and the ones I didn't sell, I have deep cost basis on, so I can hold them and stomach the volatility. You should have a risk and portfolio management plan, if you don't you'll be running around like a chicken with its head cut off.

Not Financial Advice!

[Calcus Cal @CalcusCal]

I would prepare myself for some short-term volatility. $AVGO AI-related revenue was a bit weak, so this will probably dampen the AI narrative short term.

I talked about the euphoria that settling in the market last week, a reality check shouldn’t be something unexpected imo.

This doesn’t mean I’m bearish, it means I’m okay with pullbacks.

Not Financial Advice!

[Calcus Cal @CalcusCal]

@StockSavvyShay They had to announce this shit today smh

[Calcus Cal @CalcusCal]

$SPY $QQQ

First time since April that $SPY closed below 21D ema. This is a brutal sell off. We’ll have to see what rate decisions will be made imo to evaluate going forward.

[Calcus Cal @CalcusCal]

$SPY $QQQ

🚨 The labor market data seems promising, so why is market selling off??

Market is a forward looking mechanism. The reason why we’re seeing a sell-off, in my opinion, is because the labor market just threw cold water on rate cut dreams.

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics numbers show NFP +172k in May, beating expectations of ~88k. Unemployment steady at 4.3% (as forecasted).

This “too strong” jobs data,in my OPINION, has investors dumping rate cut expectations. Treasury yields are ripping 10-year now above 4.5%, 30-year cracking 5%.

The Fed’s restrictive stance looks locked in longer. No easy money pivot. Higher for longer = pain for equities imo, especially the rate sensitive stocks.

Not Financial Advice! Just helping/giving my opinion on why the sell-off happened today.

[Calcus Cal @CalcusCal]

$SPY $QQQ

This is not a day to throw darts imo. Preserve your mental capital the best you can.

[Calcus Cal @CalcusCal]

$SHEN is up 2% today. Something to think about 🤔

[Calcus Cal @CalcusCal]

$GLW $LUMN $SHEN $ADTN $COHR

Compute clusters are choking on data transfer speeds, forcing Hyperscalers into deals that will reshape the entire fiber optic supply chain. 🧵

The transition to next-generation GPU architectures requires an increase in fiber optic interconnects to prevent latency bottlenecks between compute clusters. The existing industrial base cannot support this physical density. The fact that a fabless semiconductor designer is providing direct greenfield construction funding and taking equity in a materials manufacturer proves that the optical layer is a critical choke point.

[Calcus Cal @CalcusCal]

$SPY $QQQ

This is the other edge of high beta that people will almost never share, but I will. Had to manage risk on lot of stuff today, but we’ll recover.

This is the price you pay if running/managing a high beta portfolio. This is unusual but not unexpected.

[Calcus Cal @CalcusCal]

$PRCT casually up 1.3% today.

[Calcus Cal @CalcusCal]

$QQQ Red and $SPY green. Rotation from tech/semi to healthcare?

$PRCT, $TEM have good charts imo

Not Financial Advice!

[Calcus Cal @CalcusCal]

@StockMKTNewz Someone forward this guy my tweet

[Calcus Cal @CalcusCal]

$SPY $QQQ

🚨 The labor market data seems promising, so why is market selling off??

Market is a forward looking mechanism. The reason why we’re seeing a sell-off, in my opinion, is because the labor market just threw cold water on rate cut dreams.

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics numbers show NFP +172k in May, beating expectations of ~88k. Unemployment steady at 4.3% (as forecasted).

This “too strong” jobs data,in my OPINION, has investors dumping rate cut expectations. Treasury yields are ripping 10-year now above 4.5%, 30-year cracking 5%.

The Fed’s restrictive stance looks locked in longer. No easy money pivot. Higher for longer = pain for equities imo, especially the rate sensitive stocks.

Not Financial Advice! Just helping/giving my opinion on why the sell-off happened today.

[Calcus Cal @CalcusCal]

@aleabitoreddit I think people don’t realize how booked out $TSM is. I think they’re at a point where they’ll let foundaries like $GFS take on some of the region because the margins from there are not worth their effort. This is bullish $GFS imo, and second order beneficiaries like $SIVE.

[Calcus Cal @CalcusCal]

$SPY $QQQ

🚨 The labor market data seems promising, so why is market selling off??

Market is a forward looking mechanism. The reason why we’re seeing a sell-off, in my opinion, is because the labor market just threw cold water on rate cut dreams.

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics numbers show NFP +172k in May, beating expectations of ~88k. Unemployment steady at 4.3% (as forecasted).

This “too strong” jobs data,in my OPINION, has investors dumping rate cut expectations. Treasury yields are ripping 10-year now above 4.5%, 30-year cracking 5%.

The Fed’s restrictive stance looks locked in longer. No easy money pivot. Higher for longer = pain for equities imo, especially the rate sensitive stocks.

Not Financial Advice! Just helping/giving my opinion on why the sell-off happened today.

[Calcus Cal @CalcusCal]

I would keep my eye out for $AUR. I’ve been looking at this name for a while now, and this note from Craig-Hallum adds to my confluence.

The daily chart looks good too, maybe a pullback to 50D 🤷‍♂️

Not Financial Advice! Just sharing what I’m tracking

[Wall St Engine @wallstengine]

Craig-Hallum Initiates Coverage on $AUR with Buy Rating, PT $18; 'we see potential for a $100B+ valuation'

Analyst comments: "Our call: Aurora Innovation is a clear leader in physical AI and ready to revolutionize long-haul trucking with its autonomous “Aurora Driver.” Significant investments in R&D, aided by its team of industry pioneers, have led to the most commercially advanced, on-highway trucking product available in the market today. Initiating with a Buy rating and $18 one-year price target, but we see potential for a $100 billion+ valuation."

Analyst: Ryan Sigdahl

[Calcus Cal @CalcusCal]

Oppenheimer analyst Brian Blair raised the price target on Timken $TKR to $147.00 (from $137.00) while maintaining a Outperform rating.

Looks like the analysts are catching on. Full thesis below if interested.

[Calcus Cal @CalcusCal]

$TKR - (The Timken Co.)

Actuators account for 40%-60% of the entire BOM for a humanoid robot. This is the single largest cost structure in the humanoid/robotics industry. Humanoids have not started scaling yet, but when/if they do, actuators will open up a huge market for hardware suppliers imo. The bet here is scaling of the TAM. Actuators for humanoids and most robots need electric motors and precision gearboxes, $TKR provides the latter.

Specialized and niche precision gearboxes (Harmonic Drives) are an integral part in humanoids' rotary joints—the shoulders, elbows, wrists, and hips—to allow movement. There is a huge shortage of supply for these Harmonic Drives, there's a tall ladder when trying to bring on additional supply capacity with high lead times in tools needed like Multi-axis CNC, High-Rigidity Precision Grinding Machines, material procurement takes 12-16 weeks, and quality assurance taking anywhere from 45 mins- 1 hour per unit. I'm personally betting that there will be a huge increase in demand for harmonic drives as the humanoid industry scales. Currently most of Harmonic drive suppliers are foreign (Harmonic Drive SE/Japan, Nabtesco/Japan) and private/smaller U.S. firms focus more on worm/planetary/slew but not strain-wave harmonic at scale. There is currently only one U.S. based supplier of Harmonic Drives, $TKR. Historically known as a heavy industrial bearing manufacturer, Timken has spent the last several years aggressively acquiring its way into the exact precision motion control niches causing this manufacturing bottleneck. Through its Industrial Motion segment, Timken owns the complete mechanical stack for robotics:

Cone Drive

$TKR acquired this European business in 2018. This is Timken’s direct asset for the bottleneck and why I'm interested in them. Cone Drive manufactures harmonic strain wave gearing (specifically targeting humanoid robotic joints like hips, knees, and wrists) out of U.S.-based manufacturing facilities. Acquiring them makes $TKR effectively the only U.S.-based public supplier of harmonic drives.

SPINEA (Acquired 2022)

Produces cycloidal reduction gears, which provide the high-load rigidity and torque needed for a robot's heavier structural axes (waist and shoulders).

CGI Inc. (Acquired 2024)

Specializes in high-precision, miniaturized gearheads and sub-assemblies historically utilized in surgical robotics and medical devices.

By rolling up Cone Drive, SPINEA, and CGI, Timken operates as a "one-stop shop" capable of supplying precision gear systems across all six axes of a robotic or humanoid actuator. What makes them even more interesting is that the high-growth robotics harmonic drive business is consolidated inside a massive legacy industrial business. Timken operates under two primary reportable segments:

Engineered Bearings (~66% of FY '25 sales): This includes tapered roller bearings, spherical/ cylindrical roller bearings, ball bearings, and related components. Serves diverse end-markets including automotive, off-highway, rail, aerospace, wind energy, and general industrial. Revenue has been relatively stable/flat in recent years, with growth from pricing/mix and select markets (e.g., renewables) offset by softer demand in others. Q4 2025 sales +0.9% YoY; full-year adjusted EBITDA margin ~18.9–20.0%.

Industrial Motion (~34% of FY '25 sales): This includes precision gearboxes and gears (via brands like Cone Drive, Spinea, and CGI), drives, breathers, seals, automatic lubrication systems, linear motion products, chain, belts, couplings, and industrial clutches and brakes. This segment has shown stronger growth: +8.4% YoY in Q4 2025 (driven by demand, pricing, FX, and acquisitions) and has delivered double-digit internal CAGR in the automation/robotics end-market since 2018. Adjusted EBITDA margin improved to ~19–21% recently (21.0% in Q4 2025).

Peer Comparison

Bearings-heavy peers trade in the 8–12x EV/EBITDA range (e.g., SKF, NTN analogs, or diversified industrials like RRX in power transmission). Precision/aerospace-focused names like RBC Bearings command modest premiums but still align with cyclical industrial multiples rather than secular growth. TKR’s current ~12x EV/EBITDA and ~2.1x EV/Sales reflect its diversified but mature end-markets (auto, off-highway, rail, wind) and perceived cyclicality — not the high-growth robotics optionality.

In contrast, robotics/humanoids/automation peers Timken trades at a discount. $RRX trades around 15.5x EV/EBITDA, while $MOG.A commands a much higher multiple of 21.3x EV/EBITDA. Timken sits comfortably in the middle. I believe TKR’s humanoid exposure (via the faster-growing Industrial Motion segment) is not yet fully priced in by the market.

In the Q1 2026 earnings call, CEO Lucian Boldea highlighted automation/robotics as a strategic priority where Timken has “doubled down,” delivering double-digit CAGR since 2018. Humanoids are explicitly called out as a high-potential subset addressing labor gaps: "Cone Drive and Spinea provide harmonic/cycloidal drives for joints; Rollon for 7th-axis linear; CGI for medical robotics; Timken bearings and Cone Drive harmonics already present in humanoids/exoskeletons. We are nicely positioned to benefit… We will have our newly appointed Chief Technology Officer talk more at Investor Day about the opportunity.” The company participates in humanoid summits and frames harmonic solutions as core to scaling these platforms. With Industrial Motion already outgrowing the legacy bearings segment and backlog momentum building, the humanoid/robotics tailwind represents asymmetric upside that justifies a valuation re-rating above legacy auto/aerospace multiples — toward robotics/automation peers (15–20x+ EV/EBITDA) as revenue contribution scales.

This is my thesis for $TKR not financial advise. I'm simply jotting down my notes and sharing with you all so maybe you can have a new perspective on the industry or even find critics in the thesis yo may not agree with.

[Calcus Cal @CalcusCal]

@StockMKTNewz Who’s gonna buy? Raise your hands 🙋‍♂️