![calebbets3's tweet photo. 10 THINGS TO EXPECT IN THE NFL TONIGHT:
TNF W7: NE v CHI. 63Β°F, No Wind/Rain.
1) The Patriots have won 3 games straight, where Maye has broken out of his early season slump. In his first three weeks, Maye was sacked 9 times, compared to just 2 in the last 3.
Noting this as The Pats are missing both starting guards (Vera-Tucker, Brown), with Moses (RT) questionable after missing last week. Lomu will join this starting line, who allowed zero pressures last week vs NYJ.
2) The Bears are generating the 4th highest pressure rate this season, while 8th in Sacks (17), and 5th in opposing Catchable throw rate. So yes, the front depletion for NE is going to be cumbersome.
Can start with a note on Pats rushers, as Corey Kiner emerged last week with 11 Att for 57 Yards, which included 8 straight in the 4th to burn the clock.
β[Kiner] runs hard, and itβs the same way heβs selling the kickoff returns... We got three capable backs and you ride the hot hand" - Vrabel
3) Bears love their man coverage, and Maye has yet to throw the ball to A.J. Brown when facing it. Brown is looking for a rebound already after he notched 4 drops last week:
"There's no excuses...Just trying to get going again...Put this to bed really fast, I'm gonna watch the tape, and it's over, imma flush it." - Brown
4) Da Bears offense is back to full strength with the exception of Kyle Monangai. Without him last week, Bears carry distribution featured 16 to Swift and 13 to Johnson, though Swift had 4 of the 5 goal line carries.
Swift has notched 15+ carries in all 5 games where he hasn't got injured this season. 5 straight RB1s have covered their receiving yards prop vs New England.
5) Patriots rush defense is ranking Top 10 in OPP YPC and Success Rate this season. Granted, we have now seen 4 of 6 starting backs cross 4.5 YPC; Only 1 of them notched over 2 receptions, and that was Jeanty amidst a 28 Pt loss.
Bears offense runs Zone concepts on 56.5% of attempts, sitting in that Top 10 with Jags (30-137 v NE) and SEA (22-97). Patriots loss both of those games.
6) Caleb Williams is back and passing into a man-heavy Pats secondary, which is missing a starting CB in Carlton Davis III.
Williams has a 76% completion rate vs man, which is +5% comparative to zone, yet has came with a significant hit in Yds/DB (5.5 v 6.78).
7) Colston Loveland showed up last week, notching 6 receptions for 65 yards and recording his first TD of the season. When Williams is facing man, he's in 12 personnel (2 TE, 2 WR) at the 2nd lowest rate in the league (15%).
Loveland has played two games with Caleb against above average man-coverage teams, where he totaled 1 receptions for 3 yards (which was vs zone).
8) Instead, The Patriots are allowing the 6th highest target rate to wideouts. Kalif Raymond notched 214 of his 244 receiving yards in his opening 3 games, and has a chance to boom again here.
He generated 0.36 TPRR vs Man in the aforementioned sample, doubling the next closest Bear.
Last week Raymond played just 47% of snaps, the only time he has logged <60% with Williams. Odunze remains the leader here at 96%, yet 5 straight WR1s have gone under their receiving yards prop vs NE.
9/10) KICKERS, D/ST, and TRENDS!
The Commanders covered their +7.5 vs San Francisco on Monday Night, which moves primetime dogs to 8-2 since Week 1 (excl. SNF).
The Bears have given up just 1.5 FGA per game this season, with 0 last week, ranking them 5th. This was because The Falcons scored on every RedZone trip, yet The Bears at home have allowed a 20% RZ score rate (compared to 90% on the road!).](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HVPSfHbWAAAq6Uh.png)
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10 THINGS TO EXPECT IN THE NFL TONIGHT:
TNF W7: NE v CHI. 63Β°F, No Wind/Rain.
1) The Patriots have won 3 games straight, where Maye has broken out of his early season slump. In his first three weeks, Maye was sacked 9 times, compared to just 2 in the last 3.
Noting this as The Pats are missing both starting guards (Vera-Tucker, Brown), with Moses (RT) questionable after missing last week. Lomu will join this starting line, who allowed zero pressures last week vs NYJ.
2) The Bears are generating the 4th highest pressure rate this season, while 8th in Sacks (17), and 5th in opposing Catchable throw rate. So yes, the front depletion for NE is going to be cumbersome.
Can start with a note on Pats rushers, as Corey Kiner emerged last week with 11 Att for 57 Yards, which included 8 straight in the 4th to burn the clock.
β[Kiner] runs hard, and itβs the same way heβs selling the kickoff returns... We got three capable backs and you ride the hot hand" - Vrabel
3) Bears love their man coverage, and Maye has yet to throw the ball to A.J. Brown when facing it. Brown is looking for a rebound already after he notched 4 drops last week:
"There's no excuses...Just trying to get going again...Put this to bed really fast, I'm gonna watch the tape, and it's over, imma flush it." - Brown
4) Da Bears offense is back to full strength with the exception of Kyle Monangai. Without him last week, Bears carry distribution featured 16 to Swift and 13 to Johnson, though Swift had 4 of the 5 goal line carries.
Swift has notched 15+ carries in all 5 games where he hasn't got injured this season. 5 straight RB1s have covered their receiving yards prop vs New England.
5) Patriots rush defense is ranking Top 10 in OPP YPC and Success Rate this season. Granted, we have now seen 4 of 6 starting backs cross 4.5 YPC; Only 1 of them notched over 2 receptions, and that was Jeanty amidst a 28 Pt loss.
Bears offense runs Zone concepts on 56.5% of attempts, sitting in that Top 10 with Jags (30-137 v NE) and SEA (22-97). Patriots loss both of those games.
6) Caleb Williams is back and passing into a man-heavy Pats secondary, which is missing a starting CB in Carlton Davis III.
Williams has a 76% completion rate vs man, which is +5% comparative to zone, yet has came with a significant hit in Yds/DB (5.5 v 6.78).
7) Colston Loveland showed up last week, notching 6 receptions for 65 yards and recording his first TD of the season. When Williams is facing man, he's in 12 personnel (2 TE, 2 WR) at the 2nd lowest rate in the league (15%).
Loveland has played two games with Caleb against above average man-coverage teams, where he totaled 1 receptions for 3 yards (which was vs zone).
8) Instead, The Patriots are allowing the 6th highest target rate to wideouts. Kalif Raymond notched 214 of his 244 receiving yards in his opening 3 games, and has a chance to boom again here.
He generated 0.36 TPRR vs Man in the aforementioned sample, doubling the next closest Bear.
Last week Raymond played just 47% of snaps, the only time he has logged <60% with Williams. Odunze remains the leader here at 96%, yet 5 straight WR1s have gone under their receiving yards prop vs NE.
9/10) KICKERS, D/ST, and TRENDS!
The Commanders covered their +7.5 vs San Francisco on Monday Night, which moves primetime dogs to 8-2 since Week 1 (excl. SNF).
The Bears have given up just 1.5 FGA per game this season, with 0 last week, ranking them 5th. This was because The Falcons scored on every RedZone trip, yet The Bears at home have allowed a 20% RZ score rate (compared to 90% on the road!).
![calebbets3's tweet photo. 10 THINGS TO EXPECT IN THE NFL TONIGHT:
TNF W7: NE v CHI. 63Β°F, No Wind/Rain.
1) The Patriots have won 3 games straight, where Maye has broken out of his early season slump. In his first three weeks, Maye was sacked 9 times, compared to just 2 in the last 3.
Noting this as The Pats are missing both starting guards (Vera-Tucker, Brown), with Moses (RT) questionable after missing last week. Lomu will join this starting line, who allowed zero pressures last week vs NYJ.
2) The Bears are generating the 4th highest pressure rate this season, while 8th in Sacks (17), and 5th in opposing Catchable throw rate. So yes, the front depletion for NE is going to be cumbersome.
Can start with a note on Pats rushers, as Corey Kiner emerged last week with 11 Att for 57 Yards, which included 8 straight in the 4th to burn the clock.
β[Kiner] runs hard, and itβs the same way heβs selling the kickoff returns... We got three capable backs and you ride the hot hand" - Vrabel
3) Bears love their man coverage, and Maye has yet to throw the ball to A.J. Brown when facing it. Brown is looking for a rebound already after he notched 4 drops last week:
"There's no excuses...Just trying to get going again...Put this to bed really fast, I'm gonna watch the tape, and it's over, imma flush it." - Brown
4) Da Bears offense is back to full strength with the exception of Kyle Monangai. Without him last week, Bears carry distribution featured 16 to Swift and 13 to Johnson, though Swift had 4 of the 5 goal line carries.
Swift has notched 15+ carries in all 5 games where he hasn't got injured this season. 5 straight RB1s have covered their receiving yards prop vs New England.
5) Patriots rush defense is ranking Top 10 in OPP YPC and Success Rate this season. Granted, we have now seen 4 of 6 starting backs cross 4.5 YPC; Only 1 of them notched over 2 receptions, and that was Jeanty amidst a 28 Pt loss.
Bears offense runs Zone concepts on 56.5% of attempts, sitting in that Top 10 with Jags (30-137 v NE) and SEA (22-97). Patriots loss both of those games.
6) Caleb Williams is back and passing into a man-heavy Pats secondary, which is missing a starting CB in Carlton Davis III.
Williams has a 76% completion rate vs man, which is +5% comparative to zone, yet has came with a significant hit in Yds/DB (5.5 v 6.78).
7) Colston Loveland showed up last week, notching 6 receptions for 65 yards and recording his first TD of the season. When Williams is facing man, he's in 12 personnel (2 TE, 2 WR) at the 2nd lowest rate in the league (15%).
Loveland has played two games with Caleb against above average man-coverage teams, where he totaled 1 receptions for 3 yards (which was vs zone).
8) Instead, The Patriots are allowing the 6th highest target rate to wideouts. Kalif Raymond notched 214 of his 244 receiving yards in his opening 3 games, and has a chance to boom again here.
He generated 0.36 TPRR vs Man in the aforementioned sample, doubling the next closest Bear.
Last week Raymond played just 47% of snaps, the only time he has logged <60% with Williams. Odunze remains the leader here at 96%, yet 5 straight WR1s have gone under their receiving yards prop vs NE.
9/10) KICKERS, D/ST, and TRENDS!
The Commanders covered their +7.5 vs San Francisco on Monday Night, which moves primetime dogs to 8-2 since Week 1 (excl. SNF).
The Bears have given up just 1.5 FGA per game this season, with 0 last week, ranking them 5th. This was because The Falcons scored on every RedZone trip, yet The Bears at home have allowed a 20% RZ score rate (compared to 90% on the road!).](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HVPS1ZsXAAAUOI4.jpg)
Full Recap | 10.21.26:
-2.14u
β
- Naz Reid o15.5 Pts | -101
β
- Gillespie u15.5 PR | -127
β
- Rhyne o3.5 1Q Pts | -120
β - Sharpe o9.5 Pts | -125 πͺΆ
β - Hachimura o25.5 PRA | -125 πͺΆ
β - Murray u23.5 PR | -120
β - Lillard u5.5 Ast | -138
β - Wiggins o1.5 3s | -120 πͺΆ
Not upset with results here, outside of Murray playing a lot more minutes than I expected. Gave X the bad batch, apologies.
Andrew Wiggins o1.5 3PM | MGM -145
10.21.26 Play #3 | #HEATNation
Played at -120, but given this is my last remotely playable prop from premium, we'll take it.
In preseason, Minnesota starters allowed a 13.6% Corner 3 Rate; This was an intentional scheme in abandoning the corners, yet also is a biproduct of hiding LaMelo Ball.
Last season, The Timberwolves did double Giannis β where Portis, Trent, AJ, Lopez & Prince all had 6+ 3PA around him. Giannis had 10 Ast.
Wiggins was 29/35 to 2+ 3PM with 5-8 3PA last season.
@OhYeahNFL https://t.co/YMFhUbkUOG
Someone call for an NBA Spot π
Day'Ron Sharpe 10+ Pts | -125
Day'Ron Sharpe DD | +358
10.21.26 Play #1 | #NetsWorld w/ @SammyGprops
Sharpe moves from a bench role last season to the clear cut starting center. Should be in for good minutes as long as he avoids foul trouble. With 25-32 minutes vs non top 5 paint defenses he is over in 5/7 games over the last 2 years and has notched a double double in 3 of those 7.
Will get matched up against Diabate for the most part here, when covered by Moussa he avg 30.1 pts/75. Last year in 29 minutes vs CHA he scored 20 points. He avg 12.3 pts per 30 mins in the preseason, while now has an actual viable 3ball.
Rui Hachimura o25.5 PRA | BOV -130
10.21.26 Play #2 | #CLIPPERNATION
o18.5 Pts is same weight.
The Clippers lost a ton of guys in the offseason, most notable being Kawhi Leonard (TOR), while also losing Collins (DET), Bogdonavic (HOU, FA), Mathurin (NOP, FA) and Batum. While they acquired Brandon Ingram, he's injured, so their top options are Darius Garland, No.5 Pick in Keaton Wagler, and their top FA signing in Rui Hachimura.
In the preseason, Hachimura led the team in USG at 31.7%, generating 31.6 Pts per 36' and that remains the same in his minutes with Garland. All quotes coming out of Clippers camp on Hachimura:
- β[Ty Lue] told us with Rui he wants him to average seven or eight rebounds a game.β - Garland
- βHe likes when we get the rebound. He wants us to push the ball. I get the rebound, I can push the ball easy.β - Rui
- βWe just talked to Rui about being more assertive, being more aggressive, being able to use him different ways than just standing in the corner... you got to be able to post up, come off pin downs, come off screens, and we're going to play through them a lot.β - Lue
Meanwhile, This Kings defense is one of the worst I have ever seen. In 27 preseason minutes with LaVine, Sabonis and Acuff on the floor together, they gave up 82 points. In 75' with just the two backcourt guys, they allowed 205 Pts, which is just diabolical. Now Simmons is also out of the mix, so this is going to be real disgusting.
They have also gotten destroyed on the glass in their preseason, with all starters outside of Curry and Harper amongst the Warriors/Spurs notching 6+ Reb despite none running over 25'. With POA defensive options in Dunn and JJ, Hachimura should see a significant rebound uptick this season.
Overall, Sacramento's offseason moves includes the losses of DeRozan and Westbrook, while only adding their three draft picks in Acuff (7), Karaban (29) and Sharp (45).
![calebbets3's tweet photo. Rui Hachimura o25.5 PRA | BOV -130
10.21.26 Play #2 | #CLIPPERNATION
o18.5 Pts is same weight.
The Clippers lost a ton of guys in the offseason, most notable being Kawhi Leonard (TOR), while also losing Collins (DET), Bogdonavic (HOU, FA), Mathurin (NOP, FA) and Batum. While they acquired Brandon Ingram, he's injured, so their top options are Darius Garland, No.5 Pick in Keaton Wagler, and their top FA signing in Rui Hachimura.
In the preseason, Hachimura led the team in USG at 31.7%, generating 31.6 Pts per 36' and that remains the same in his minutes with Garland. All quotes coming out of Clippers camp on Hachimura:
- β[Ty Lue] told us with Rui he wants him to average seven or eight rebounds a game.β - Garland
- βHe likes when we get the rebound. He wants us to push the ball. I get the rebound, I can push the ball easy.β - Rui
- βWe just talked to Rui about being more assertive, being more aggressive, being able to use him different ways than just standing in the corner... you got to be able to post up, come off pin downs, come off screens, and we're going to play through them a lot.β - Lue
Meanwhile, This Kings defense is one of the worst I have ever seen. In 27 preseason minutes with LaVine, Sabonis and Acuff on the floor together, they gave up 82 points. In 75' with just the two backcourt guys, they allowed 205 Pts, which is just diabolical. Now Simmons is also out of the mix, so this is going to be real disgusting.
They have also gotten destroyed on the glass in their preseason, with all starters outside of Curry and Harper amongst the Warriors/Spurs notching 6+ Reb despite none running over 25'. With POA defensive options in Dunn and JJ, Hachimura should see a significant rebound uptick this season.
Overall, Sacramento's offseason moves includes the losses of DeRozan and Westbrook, while only adding their three draft picks in Acuff (7), Karaban (29) and Sharp (45).](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HVLXLIEbQAA17GA.jpg)
Alright, just posted my entire slate along with every team's offseason changes to patreon.
Will get a bit of WNBA work in then start posting a couple NBA spots here! Huge hoops day, let's enjoy it.
Someone call for an NBA Spot π
Day'Ron Sharpe 10+ Pts | -125
Day'Ron Sharpe DD | +358
10.21.26 Play #1 | #NetsWorld w/ @SammyGprops
Sharpe moves from a bench role last season to the clear cut starting center. Should be in for good minutes as long as he avoids foul trouble. With 25-32 minutes vs non top 5 paint defenses he is over in 5/7 games over the last 2 years and has notched a double double in 3 of those 7.
Will get matched up against Diabate for the most part here, when covered by Moussa he avg 30.1 pts/75. Last year in 29 minutes vs CHA he scored 20 points. He avg 12.3 pts per 30 mins in the preseason, while now has an actual viable 3ball.
Happy NBA Opening Day πββοΈ π€
Go read that final sentenceβ¦ ππ΅
10 THINGS TO EXPECT IN THE NFL TONIGHT
MNF W6: WSH v SF. 64Β°F, 11% Rain.
1) No Croskey-Merritt (groin) for The Commanders tonight, which will leave Rachaad White as the lead back. Tough timing, as Daniels had only just returned to Washington last week and JCM was coming off his most productive game of the season.
White already played 60% of snaps last week compared to Ekeler's 10%; Expect him to handle bulk of carry and route share.
2) Commanders' backfield will be running into a beat up SF Front 7 that is missing Greenlaw (SUSP), Bosa (knee/calf), Wallow (hamstring) and has RDT Halton questionable. The Strong Safety Sigle is also out here with an ankle injury, so yea, injury bug is here.
On the season, The 49ers have allowed the 3rd highest Success Rate (45.1%), yet by far the lowest Explosive Rate (3%!!). This leaves us with 3 RBs already notching 20+ carries vs SF:
- Love 21 Att, 90 Yds
- Achana 20 Att, 74 Yds
- Wilson 20 Att, 61 Yds
Love leads the group at 4.3 YPC, with a long of just 8 yards.
3) It doesn't get much better injury wise on the offensive side for SF, with Deebo Samuel already ruled out and Mike Evans possibly joining him with a rib issue. Bear in mind this WR core is already missing Stribling, Pearsall and Robinson on IR.
From Larry Kreuger, "Just came off the field at #49ersβ Saturday practice. Based on what I saw, Iβd be very surprised if Mike Evans plays on Monday. He was off to the side."
4) With both Evans and Samuel out, Christian McCaffrey has generated 0.27 TPRR, followed by Kittle at 0.26 TPRR.
This season, The Commanders have ran 2-HI safety looks on 59.4% of opposing drop backs -- 3rd highest rate in the league. Logically, this coverage look funnels more receptions to RBs.
McCaffrey has notched 0.28 TPRR vs 2-HI, and 0.33 TPRR against their top individual look of Cover 2.
5) Hard to understate how incredible Brock Purdy has been. He is now the all time leader in EPA/Play (min. 48 GP), while leading the field in Passer Rating this season (119.3) despite facing three consensus Top 3 pass coverages in LAR, SEA and DEN. Wow.
Now, he faces a WSH secondary that not only ranks B10 vs backfield receivers (McCaffrey), yet also with these marks:
- 69.3% Catch Rate (24th)
- 1,380 Air Yards (21st)
- 11.2% Lead WR TGT Rate (28th, Evans π)
6) Jayden Daniels is of course a different QB, currently leading the field in Scramble Rate at 16.3%. The 49ers have given up just 5 scrambles this season, good for 2nd fewest in the league.
This stems from their high volume of 1-HI safety schemes, which they run at the 5th highest rate. Here is Daniels vs the other Top 10 in 1-HI Freq%:
- 7 Rush, 69 Yds vs DAL
2025
- 11 Rush, 68 Yds vs NYG
- 10 Rush, 52 Yds vs CHI
Conflicting.
7) Jayden Daniels has had his struggles against 1-HI, producing 5.02 Yds/DB, which ranks 34th of 42 QBs with >20 DBs.
We already noted the Front 7 injuries for SF, so would expect their current Top 5 Pressure Rate to regress a bit. Daniels has sat at a B5 1.63 Yds/DB against Pressure, so a clean pocket is really key to any hope at a WSH win tonight.
8) Stefon Diggs (hamstring) is questionable, yet didn't participate in Thursday's practice while being limited in Friday's. Granted, WSH limited a ton of their offensive contributors, so may be less important than typical.
He leads the team in TPRR against both 1-HI (0.25) and Cover 1 (0.24).
9/10) KICKERS, D/ST, TRENDS!
After The Broncos home-upset Seattle on TNF, non-Sunday primetime dogs are now 7-2 since Week 1.
No team is giving up more FGA/gp in their L3 games than San Francisco, at a whopping 3.7. This was most recently capped off by Jason Myers, who went 5/5 with all being 40+ Yards. It has now been 4 straight weeks where an opposing kicker has 3+ FGA.
The Commanders have given up 14 Pass TDs (3rd most) despite just 5 GP, with 12 of them occurring in the RedZone and 7 to Tight Ends (Kittle π).
Rhyne Howard o19.5 PR | Fanatics -115
10.19.26 Play #1 | #DareToDream
Valkyries win the defensive grinder of Game 1 68-64, and the question will be if The Dream can generate enough offense to reward their defensive efforts. This seems challenging, as Atlanta had their lowest expected shot quality percentage of the season AND had 94% of their shots contested.
After a 14 Pt opening half, Angel Reese produced 0 Pts off 0/2 shooting in 17 2H minutes. She noted, "I don't think they really did anything [to defend me differently]... I wasn't aggressive enough with the ball and trying to get the ball and get to my spot. So I'm definitely gonna do a better job of that next game."
Some truth to this, yet Reese saw just 19 halfcourt touches in the 2H compared to her 28 in the first. With Valkyries collapsing on all drives (which oftentimes works given Stokes' shot blocking opportunity), she does have dump off opportunity.
On the other hand, she scored all 14 Pts on non-Stokes players (5/8 1H), while shooting 0-2 when against her. For GSV, this makes their job easy, just keep Stokes on Reese and deny the switch. In fact, Reese did not see a single assignment outside of Stokes in that scoreless 2H.
Worth noting that Reese did have 12' of time where Stokes was not on the floor, so that will be her productive time. Leaves her scoring a bit unpredictable.
Overall, Atlanta's effective field-goal percentage (eFG; 35.9%) and expected shot quality (43.3%) were its lowest of the season (regular season + playoffs). What's crazy is that up until now, Valkyries have been deploying high pickups these playoffs; Against both Dallas and Aces, every single game had an average pickup distance of >45', yet against Atlanta in Game 1 this was just 37.7'.
This, paired with more switching and less doubling (compared to what we saw vs Paige/Jackie), pretty much translates to a simple "Beat us in Isolation" defense. With Rhyne Howard being in a shooting slump near all playoffs, Gray's hand injury, and Reese still remaining inconsistent away from the rim, it's a good strategy.
This is where I think Rhyne Howard remains a strong bet to have solid shooting volume. She noted postgame, "They forced us into a game of basketball that we don't play".
![calebbets3's tweet photo. Rhyne Howard o19.5 PR | Fanatics -115
10.19.26 Play #1 | #DareToDream
Valkyries win the defensive grinder of Game 1 68-64, and the question will be if The Dream can generate enough offense to reward their defensive efforts. This seems challenging, as Atlanta had their lowest expected shot quality percentage of the season AND had 94% of their shots contested.
After a 14 Pt opening half, Angel Reese produced 0 Pts off 0/2 shooting in 17 2H minutes. She noted, "I don't think they really did anything [to defend me differently]... I wasn't aggressive enough with the ball and trying to get the ball and get to my spot. So I'm definitely gonna do a better job of that next game."
Some truth to this, yet Reese saw just 19 halfcourt touches in the 2H compared to her 28 in the first. With Valkyries collapsing on all drives (which oftentimes works given Stokes' shot blocking opportunity), she does have dump off opportunity.
On the other hand, she scored all 14 Pts on non-Stokes players (5/8 1H), while shooting 0-2 when against her. For GSV, this makes their job easy, just keep Stokes on Reese and deny the switch. In fact, Reese did not see a single assignment outside of Stokes in that scoreless 2H.
Worth noting that Reese did have 12' of time where Stokes was not on the floor, so that will be her productive time. Leaves her scoring a bit unpredictable.
Overall, Atlanta's effective field-goal percentage (eFG; 35.9%) and expected shot quality (43.3%) were its lowest of the season (regular season + playoffs). What's crazy is that up until now, Valkyries have been deploying high pickups these playoffs; Against both Dallas and Aces, every single game had an average pickup distance of >45', yet against Atlanta in Game 1 this was just 37.7'.
This, paired with more switching and less doubling (compared to what we saw vs Paige/Jackie), pretty much translates to a simple "Beat us in Isolation" defense. With Rhyne Howard being in a shooting slump near all playoffs, Gray's hand injury, and Reese still remaining inconsistent away from the rim, it's a good strategy.
This is where I think Rhyne Howard remains a strong bet to have solid shooting volume. She noted postgame, "They forced us into a game of basketball that we don't play".](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HVBk5crXMAAIMF4.jpg)
@MrPonkin @SammyGprops Man, The Valks just are currently in such a tier of their own defensively that I can't say positive regression is necessarily "due" for Atlanta. They had just 6% of their shots in Game 1 not contested. Mind boggling.
Someone call for an NBA Spot π
Day'Ron Sharpe 10+ Pts | -125
Day'Ron Sharpe DD | +358
10.21.26 Play #1 | #NetsWorld w/ @SammyGprops
Sharpe moves from a bench role last season to the clear cut starting center. Should be in for good minutes as long as he avoids foul trouble. With 25-32 minutes vs non top 5 paint defenses he is over in 5/7 games over the last 2 years and has notched a double double in 3 of those 7.
Will get matched up against Diabate for the most part here, when covered by Moussa he avg 30.1 pts/75. Last year in 29 minutes vs CHA he scored 20 points. He avg 12.3 pts per 30 mins in the preseason, while now has an actual viable 3ball.
@SammyGprops Big man go to work
@speedbet_win Every chart that man is top of.
10 THINGS TO EXPECT IN THE NFL TONIGHT
MNF W6: WSH v SF. 64Β°F, 11% Rain.
1) No Croskey-Merritt (groin) for The Commanders tonight, which will leave Rachaad White as the lead back. Tough timing, as Daniels had only just returned to Washington last week and JCM was coming off his most productive game of the season.
White already played 60% of snaps last week compared to Ekeler's 10%; Expect him to handle bulk of carry and route share.
2) Commanders' backfield will be running into a beat up SF Front 7 that is missing Greenlaw (SUSP), Bosa (knee/calf), Wallow (hamstring) and has RDT Halton questionable. The Strong Safety Sigle is also out here with an ankle injury, so yea, injury bug is here.
On the season, The 49ers have allowed the 3rd highest Success Rate (45.1%), yet by far the lowest Explosive Rate (3%!!). This leaves us with 3 RBs already notching 20+ carries vs SF:
- Love 21 Att, 90 Yds
- Achana 20 Att, 74 Yds
- Wilson 20 Att, 61 Yds
Love leads the group at 4.3 YPC, with a long of just 8 yards.
3) It doesn't get much better injury wise on the offensive side for SF, with Deebo Samuel already ruled out and Mike Evans possibly joining him with a rib issue. Bear in mind this WR core is already missing Stribling, Pearsall and Robinson on IR.
From Larry Kreuger, "Just came off the field at #49ersβ Saturday practice. Based on what I saw, Iβd be very surprised if Mike Evans plays on Monday. He was off to the side."
4) With both Evans and Samuel out, Christian McCaffrey has generated 0.27 TPRR, followed by Kittle at 0.26 TPRR.
This season, The Commanders have ran 2-HI safety looks on 59.4% of opposing drop backs -- 3rd highest rate in the league. Logically, this coverage look funnels more receptions to RBs.
McCaffrey has notched 0.28 TPRR vs 2-HI, and 0.33 TPRR against their top individual look of Cover 2.
5) Hard to understate how incredible Brock Purdy has been. He is now the all time leader in EPA/Play (min. 48 GP), while leading the field in Passer Rating this season (119.3) despite facing three consensus Top 3 pass coverages in LAR, SEA and DEN. Wow.
Now, he faces a WSH secondary that not only ranks B10 vs backfield receivers (McCaffrey), yet also with these marks:
- 69.3% Catch Rate (24th)
- 1,380 Air Yards (21st)
- 11.2% Lead WR TGT Rate (28th, Evans π)
6) Jayden Daniels is of course a different QB, currently leading the field in Scramble Rate at 16.3%. The 49ers have given up just 5 scrambles this season, good for 2nd fewest in the league.
This stems from their high volume of 1-HI safety schemes, which they run at the 5th highest rate. Here is Daniels vs the other Top 10 in 1-HI Freq%:
- 7 Rush, 69 Yds vs DAL
2025
- 11 Rush, 68 Yds vs NYG
- 10 Rush, 52 Yds vs CHI
Conflicting.
7) Jayden Daniels has had his struggles against 1-HI, producing 5.02 Yds/DB, which ranks 34th of 42 QBs with >20 DBs.
We already noted the Front 7 injuries for SF, so would expect their current Top 5 Pressure Rate to regress a bit. Daniels has sat at a B5 1.63 Yds/DB against Pressure, so a clean pocket is really key to any hope at a WSH win tonight.
8) Stefon Diggs (hamstring) is questionable, yet didn't participate in Thursday's practice while being limited in Friday's. Granted, WSH limited a ton of their offensive contributors, so may be less important than typical.
He leads the team in TPRR against both 1-HI (0.25) and Cover 1 (0.24).
9/10) KICKERS, D/ST, TRENDS!
After The Broncos home-upset Seattle on TNF, non-Sunday primetime dogs are now 7-2 since Week 1.
No team is giving up more FGA/gp in their L3 games than San Francisco, at a whopping 3.7. This was most recently capped off by Jason Myers, who went 5/5 with all being 40+ Yards. It has now been 4 straight weeks where an opposing kicker has 3+ FGA.
The Commanders have given up 14 Pass TDs (3rd most) despite just 5 GP, with 12 of them occurring in the RedZone and 7 to Tight Ends (Kittle π).
@NekiasNBA Didn't even know this was data taken, but that is wild.
Recap | 10.17.26:
+2.1u
β
- Thornton u13.5 PRA | DK -129 πͺΆ
β
- Kiah Stokes o2.5 PTS | FD -130
β
- Stokes 5+ Pts | +225
β
- Reese u0.5 3s | FD -144
Game 1 Down!
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