caleb

[caleb @CalebWIIM]

@IneffectiveMath Possible at all this is a function of opponents? They have played a lot of teams with a couple uniquely good players (nyr twice, nsh twice, njd, edmonton).

https://t.co/PSqedeLxEJ

For example this is L/R lopsided, but the Edm chances are all coming from a few players

[caleb @CalebWIIM]

@colintj how likely is it that 1 and some of 2 were largely fixed last year by Sainristil/Moore being really smart and they simply don’t have anyone like that this year?

[caleb @CalebWIIM]

@colintj think it goes College American Football > Band American Football > Pro American Football. But it’s all quite close.

[caleb @CalebWIIM]

@hockeyanalysis Detroit also just signed him to ELC already a couple months ago, so they do seem to value him. It suggests they are acquiring assets for a 2024 draft move because it's a little puzzling otherwise.

[caleb @CalebWIIM]

@b1rky Ghositisbehere signed in Detroit the exact same contract as Klingberg got and was extremely productive and was a huge part of that PP becoming respectable. He’s not flawless, but he would have fit great in Toronto imo.

[caleb @CalebWIIM]

@IneffectiveMath @hockeyanalysis I agree with that. And it does seem likely the NHL is not perfectly calibrated on that tradeoff.

[caleb @CalebWIIM]

@hockeyanalysis @IneffectiveMath I like the model of cheap veteran NHL backup and young prospect in AHL as the starter injury replacement for this reason exactly.

[caleb @CalebWIIM]

@IneffectiveMath @hockeyanalysis Reason I asked is because when signing a backup G that a contender will have sit out 50+ games a year + the entire playoffs, it seems entirely reasonable to consciously trade away a couple percentage points of expected-sv% in return for lower variance.

[caleb @CalebWIIM]

@IneffectiveMath @hockeyanalysis Do you disagree that a 21yo in their first season is higher variance - in both directions - than a 29yo that's been an NHL regular for awhile?

[caleb @CalebWIIM]

@IneffectiveMath @hockeyanalysis But that is the actual problem being solved for here. Backup goalie is a unique role where “just don’t self destruct” is the most important trait.

To be clear, I’m mostly pushing back because you’ve made a strong claim without evidence. Entirely possible you’re right.

[caleb @CalebWIIM]

@IneffectiveMath @hockeyanalysis You don’t think a goalie with 200 starts at NHL-acceptable performance levels is more likely to turn in an NHL acceptable performance than someone with 20 starts? That seems like the obvious default case that would need to be disproven.

[caleb @CalebWIIM]

@IneffectiveMath @hockeyanalysis Is it that obvious? Priority with backup goalie is floor, not ceiling, which I think is the biggest difference from skaters. Is there data that shows U25s Gs have on average higher floors than 25-35 y/o? (Know it’s tricky to compare due to survivorship)

[caleb @CalebWIIM]

@IneffectiveMath @hockeyanalysis If your young F is overwhelmed, you shelter because 4th line doesn't matter that much. If your young G you were counting on for 30-40 starts is overwhelmed, your season tanks and you get fired. See: BUF/NJD

[caleb @CalebWIIM]

@ThiccStauskas it really breaks the brain of the southerners when a northern team is the clear best team in a given year.

[caleb @CalebWIIM]

@ByronMBader think the model needs a few more inputs if it still had percentages that low after the SHL season in which he won their norris-equivalent award at age 19.

[caleb @CalebWIIM]

@draglikepull I don’t know what specific claims you’re talking about or when they were made, but it was quite awhile before the US was doing empirically worse even if the leadership at the top was obviously far dumber.

[caleb @CalebWIIM]

@draglikepull Ok. I sort of get your point, but suggesting predictions back in March should be less certain isn’t a completely nonsensical take. That seems pretty different from actually offering a blatantly wrong prediction, which your remarks made it sound like was happening.

[caleb @CalebWIIM]

@draglikepull What are some examples of things you think he has gotten wrong?

[caleb @CalebWIIM]

@iyer_prashanth Wait, is the line fill height correlated with how high the pick is or how low? This is important info.

[caleb @CalebWIIM]

@Misopogon I predict you’ll rage quit again when you get to the 4th and 1 Haskins run