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calhoosier
@calhoosier
on my way...
OC
Joined July 2008
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ES structural context
i apologize if you are farsighted
a full daily/eow plan on scenarios and areas of interest and what "really" matters, within this context, will be available to tadpoles tonight
GM
This post encompasses my current thoughts on the market $SPX and the basis for my inclination to lean toward a quick and big selloff - in unorganized stream of consciousness form:
The next 2-4 weeks has potential for a big move in either direction imo. At the moment I'm not super confident in which direction, but I give the edge to downside, and that'll be explained below. As usual, I'll be posting some of my real time thoughts and leans and ideas here as my bias evolves, so keep my notifications on. The thoughts and views in this post are almost guaranteed to change / adapt with new MGI.
I believe we can see a swift -5%+ capitulation from here at $SPX 7500/7600 to around $SPX 7120-7140 before July Mopex (imo, next few days would be likely) followed by maybe a classic American Dynamism V-shape bald-eagle screech to NATH ... or maybe we just keep selling after that to (?) SPX 62XX-66xx. This is pulled out of my ass, but to me, when i throw out all saving-face public skepticism & expressions of disclaimers of my expectations of extreme outcomes, this feels actually realistic to me. Keep in mind, a -5% sell in a few days is by definition not likely as it's an outlier scenario, so to time this is realistically unrealistic. Don't @ me if I'm wrong because it's likely I am.
Some notes and opinions in no order:
1. This continues to feel like a war of attrition between passive seller & PPT/forced/inorganic buyer. "PPT" can exhaust sell which enables upside headline risk, and in that case, the reaction to the reaction is what's gonna matter to me (can the squeeze cause a real capitulation higher that sees a sustainable bid post-pop or does it just get absorbed like it has been for the past month?).
2. Thursday's 7/2 close was not as bullish as it might appear on the surface, to me. The nearly 1000 point NQ RTH sell we saw (and that I predicted here) felt less like a capitulation of buyers and more like the buy program was suspended and organic action took over. SPX closing a fraction of 1 bps positive in the final nanoseconds of the day is the cherry on top to support/validate my notion that the buying seems/feels/is manufactured, implying a purpose separate from the foundational primary and only directive of buyers assumed by auction theory (you know what i'm suggesting, lol). Despite 7/2 RTH finally printing the ES 7480 I've been whining about for the past week, the concept of reaction-to-reaction applies here. The reaction to trading 7480 was buyers defended, and yet the reaction to the reaction (the following move) barely got off the mat (stopped around 50% of day's range). You'd think finally trading a significant area that refused to trade for so long (implying unfair prices) would produce a more convincing intraday leg up [newton's 3rd law vibes] especially given the holiday context. Unrelated but we picked up 7480c 0dte at 25 cents and it went to 4 dollars in 45 minutes lol.
3A. Hypothetical - assuming my admittedly-tinfoil idea that recent buying is PPT/inorganic implies: A. general rules and mechanics of auction theory have little influence when the "machine" is on. This can make it (and has made it) frustrating to attempt to interpret because it adds multiple layers of assumptions and when assumptions compound the result is lack of confidence in my ideas. B. buy program can turn on/off at will, with no warning, which also implies it can turn on and stay on... for as long as it wants?
3B. If you assume the house (PPT, higher prices) always wins, then bet on the house, right? Yes, long term, that's the case, but having no time-frame for the definition of the binary outcome of the house winning (higher prices) = path dependency = house can lose within [arbitrary time frame] and still win in [arbitrary time frame +x time]. What if, for whatever reason, the assumed PPT turns off for 1 day? 2 days? 1 week? I would be inclined to think we would easily see consecutive days like 7/2 stringed together to create one dramatic move down.
4. 🚨VERY TIN FOIL🚨: The US has a vibes/hope epidemic. Vibes are produced and captured abstractly by young people, and right now, young people can't afford to live while boomers keep winning in every way as asset holders. This generation doesn't feel hopeful at all, and rightly so. The black box arbitrary un-spoken "planners" of the US (like illuminati type shit ((CIA...??)), you and i both know this function exists in some capacity), you know, the powers that be that make long term unspoken decisions behind the scenes that outlast and outlive administrations, need to deal with this problem sooner than later, or we'll risk consequences as a nation akin to what happens when you corner a typically-passive wild animal, which will topple the existing system. The easiest lever to pull to ensure a brighter future for America is the financial security of young people, and the lowest hanging fruit is sacrificing just a bit of boomer/rich-people/asset-holder's surplus of wealth because they can handle it. Boomers aren't really even stock-heavy at their age - I imagine the majority of them still have financial advisors doing nothing but balancing a 60/40 target. Raising rates could be a good way to do this (listen, I'm very naive to rates so someone chime in and correct me where I'm off base). That could cause boomers to sell finally providing an opportunity to millenials/early-gen z to pick up some assets. Boomers rotating into bonds would also provide the govt with revenue compensating for lower income tax revenues (june NFP 57k vs 100k, ~50% of total federal revenue comes from income tax). To be frank, if the directive is solely, purely, unilaterally "improve the lives of young Americans", then the trolly problem here has an easy answer with very little drawbacks. If you view any given modern period's zeitgeist as "planned" at least in some capacity, and the collective group-think toward particular groups/ demographics as one of the intentional result, it'd make sense to prop up the now universal idea that the 1% is the problem so that when it's needed, there's a lever to pull to produce collective "vibes" (hope) and ensure a future that continues to incentivize passive status quo traditional "workers", preventing any threat to the incumbent system of capitalism.
This is an incredibly autistic post and maybe I wasted an hour writing this up when 2 weeks from now we'll probably just be SPX 8k, but hopefully at the least it's an entertaining read. The purpose of this is not to convince you to do anything in particular, I just wanted to put my thoughts out there. And again, to reiterate, I'm not confident in either direction within the time frame of these next 2-4 weeks. Of all the possible immediate scenarios, I currently lean most toward a swift and dramatic selloff (SPX 7120-7140) followed by either crazy bald eagle screeches V shape rip to ATH or continuing to sell for a lot lower. I also acknowledge that upside is now technically enabled and that if the machine stays on we can absolutely just go NATH directly from here.
If you found this entertaining or valuable, leave a comment and share it because I spent a lot of time on it.
Happy birthday to the greatest nation in the galaxy.
GM, and HAGW all 💛
$SPX $SPY $QQQ
![froggytrade's tweet photo. GM
This post encompasses my current thoughts on the market $SPX and the basis for my inclination to lean toward a quick and big selloff - in unorganized stream of consciousness form:
The next 2-4 weeks has potential for a big move in either direction imo. At the moment I'm not super confident in which direction, but I give the edge to downside, and that'll be explained below. As usual, I'll be posting some of my real time thoughts and leans and ideas here as my bias evolves, so keep my notifications on. The thoughts and views in this post are almost guaranteed to change / adapt with new MGI.
I believe we can see a swift -5%+ capitulation from here at $SPX 7500/7600 to around $SPX 7120-7140 before July Mopex (imo, next few days would be likely) followed by maybe a classic American Dynamism V-shape bald-eagle screech to NATH ... or maybe we just keep selling after that to (?) SPX 62XX-66xx. This is pulled out of my ass, but to me, when i throw out all saving-face public skepticism & expressions of disclaimers of my expectations of extreme outcomes, this feels actually realistic to me. Keep in mind, a -5% sell in a few days is by definition not likely as it's an outlier scenario, so to time this is realistically unrealistic. Don't @ me if I'm wrong because it's likely I am.
Some notes and opinions in no order:
1. This continues to feel like a war of attrition between passive seller & PPT/forced/inorganic buyer. "PPT" can exhaust sell which enables upside headline risk, and in that case, the reaction to the reaction is what's gonna matter to me (can the squeeze cause a real capitulation higher that sees a sustainable bid post-pop or does it just get absorbed like it has been for the past month?).
2. Thursday's 7/2 close was not as bullish as it might appear on the surface, to me. The nearly 1000 point NQ RTH sell we saw (and that I predicted here) felt less like a capitulation of buyers and more like the buy program was suspended and organic action took over. SPX closing a fraction of 1 bps positive in the final nanoseconds of the day is the cherry on top to support/validate my notion that the buying seems/feels/is manufactured, implying a purpose separate from the foundational primary and only directive of buyers assumed by auction theory (you know what i'm suggesting, lol). Despite 7/2 RTH finally printing the ES 7480 I've been whining about for the past week, the concept of reaction-to-reaction applies here. The reaction to trading 7480 was buyers defended, and yet the reaction to the reaction (the following move) barely got off the mat (stopped around 50% of day's range). You'd think finally trading a significant area that refused to trade for so long (implying unfair prices) would produce a more convincing intraday leg up [newton's 3rd law vibes] especially given the holiday context. Unrelated but we picked up 7480c 0dte at 25 cents and it went to 4 dollars in 45 minutes lol.
3A. Hypothetical - assuming my admittedly-tinfoil idea that recent buying is PPT/inorganic implies: A. general rules and mechanics of auction theory have little influence when the "machine" is on. This can make it (and has made it) frustrating to attempt to interpret because it adds multiple layers of assumptions and when assumptions compound the result is lack of confidence in my ideas. B. buy program can turn on/off at will, with no warning, which also implies it can turn on and stay on... for as long as it wants?
3B. If you assume the house (PPT, higher prices) always wins, then bet on the house, right? Yes, long term, that's the case, but having no time-frame for the definition of the binary outcome of the house winning (higher prices) = path dependency = house can lose within [arbitrary time frame] and still win in [arbitrary time frame +x time]. What if, for whatever reason, the assumed PPT turns off for 1 day? 2 days? 1 week? I would be inclined to think we would easily see consecutive days like 7/2 stringed together to create one dramatic move down.
4. 🚨VERY TIN FOIL🚨: The US has a vibes/hope epidemic. Vibes are produced and captured abstractly by young people, and right now, young people can't afford to live while boomers keep winning in every way as asset holders. This generation doesn't feel hopeful at all, and rightly so. The black box arbitrary un-spoken "planners" of the US (like illuminati type shit ((CIA...??)), you and i both know this function exists in some capacity), you know, the powers that be that make long term unspoken decisions behind the scenes that outlast and outlive administrations, need to deal with this problem sooner than later, or we'll risk consequences as a nation akin to what happens when you corner a typically-passive wild animal, which will topple the existing system. The easiest lever to pull to ensure a brighter future for America is the financial security of young people, and the lowest hanging fruit is sacrificing just a bit of boomer/rich-people/asset-holder's surplus of wealth because they can handle it. Boomers aren't really even stock-heavy at their age - I imagine the majority of them still have financial advisors doing nothing but balancing a 60/40 target. Raising rates could be a good way to do this (listen, I'm very naive to rates so someone chime in and correct me where I'm off base). That could cause boomers to sell finally providing an opportunity to millenials/early-gen z to pick up some assets. Boomers rotating into bonds would also provide the govt with revenue compensating for lower income tax revenues (june NFP 57k vs 100k, ~50% of total federal revenue comes from income tax). To be frank, if the directive is solely, purely, unilaterally "improve the lives of young Americans", then the trolly problem here has an easy answer with very little drawbacks. If you view any given modern period's zeitgeist as "planned" at least in some capacity, and the collective group-think toward particular groups/ demographics as one of the intentional result, it'd make sense to prop up the now universal idea that the 1% is the problem so that when it's needed, there's a lever to pull to produce collective "vibes" (hope) and ensure a future that continues to incentivize passive status quo traditional "workers", preventing any threat to the incumbent system of capitalism.
This is an incredibly autistic post and maybe I wasted an hour writing this up when 2 weeks from now we'll probably just be SPX 8k, but hopefully at the least it's an entertaining read. The purpose of this is not to convince you to do anything in particular, I just wanted to put my thoughts out there. And again, to reiterate, I'm not confident in either direction within the time frame of these next 2-4 weeks. Of all the possible immediate scenarios, I currently lean most toward a swift and dramatic selloff (SPX 7120-7140) followed by either crazy bald eagle screeches V shape rip to ATH or continuing to sell for a lot lower. I also acknowledge that upside is now technically enabled and that if the machine stays on we can absolutely just go NATH directly from here.
If you found this entertaining or valuable, leave a comment and share it because I spent a lot of time on it.
Happy birthday to the greatest nation in the galaxy.
GM, and HAGW all 💛
$SPX $SPY $QQQ](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HMUAFF5bkAAaMyt.png)
I post these setups every night on my twitter
So you can follow along, and learn the strategy.
If you enjoyed and learned something from this thread LIKE+RT❤️for more trade plans and educational threads.
https://t.co/a3fz1IbB7V
Weekly Market Outlook out now
https://t.co/QPGm1WM2u8
I’m officially working with SmartPropFirm 🤝
A platform that actually benefits my community long term.
I’m selective with who I align with.
This made sense. More to come.
Here’s what they’ve built:
✅ Verified Prop Partners
💰 Payout Bonus → FREE eval at payout
🎯 Structured reward system
🛠 Access To Trading Tools (Trade Copier)
Coming soon:
• Smart Payout Helper
• Prop Finance Tracker
• Prop Education
This is becoming the #1 prop platform built to help traders succeed in their prop journey.
To celebrate 👇
🎁 GIVEAWAY
x10 FREE 50K accounts (winner’s choice):
• TakeProfitTrader
• Lucid
• Tradeify
How to enter:
Like
RT
Comment your top 3 firms
🌐 https://t.co/cRyHyhmp0B
Lanto x SmartPropFirm
🎁 GIVEAWAY: x20 FREE Prop Accounts
(Winner’s choice: Lucid, Tradeify, Alpha, etc)
SPF is a prop platform that actually benefits my community long term. You earn rewards on every purchase and get a free eval at payout as a bonus.
How to enter:
Like, RT
Follow @lanto_trades + @smartpropfirm
Comment your favorite thing about SmartPropFirm!
🔥 BONUS:
+1 extra entry if you enter on Instagram too
@lanto_trades The community is amazing. Solid people, great education, and super fun each day. Hope this injects a little motivation / appreciation your way
Shouldn't be a surprise. For years now there have been more people in China learning English than in the U.S. learning English. Let that sink in.
Two Chinese girls in Shanghai say that they have never lived in the U.S. but have learned native-level English and want to study at a university in California.
🇺🇸🇨🇳
@froggytrade cook froggy. cook!
I’m on a generational run recently. Doing my best to remain humble so the market doesn’t do it for me. Just wanted to put out into the ether that i’m thankful for the life I’ve built and lived, and grateful for the lows that enable the highs.
https://t.co/2xbULYofx8
Weekly Market Outlook out now
Trading center: Update
Over the course of the last couple weeks, i've slowly fixated more on trying to make everyone happy. Started prioritizing alerts over education.
Have taken more risky trades, giving different results.
That's not who I really am. My love for doing discord comes from teaching others, and seeing them win.
I will also start giving a combination off alerts + ideas. Alerts will include exact entry, and the ideas will not. But... if you truly educate yourself in here, you would never need my inidcation to enter being that confirmation is the same everytime!
Starting tomorrow:
(non negotiable) Lives go from starting at 9:45am to -> 9:30am EST
1-0 mindset. If at any point throughout a trading session, we go 1-0, we are done.
More education. Learning >>>
No more risky takes. If price is bad, we purely sit out. Expect more b/e days, but also expect more calculated takes.
Chat:
Starting tomorrow, negativity, and toxicity will not be handled. If i see folks being negative towards each other, or to trades, I will start timing out indefently.
3 strikes, strike 3, you are banned and refunded.
For the last 3 years, we have had the best community in the industry. Built off a community who prioritizes on learning, and becoming their own great trader.
Members evolution plan:
Level 1: Intro to the discord, navigate 📍｜discord-guide and watch education to understand how lanto trades. Can use Lanto's takes as primary insight.
Level 2: Once you have gotten a better understanding of the system, and have evolved better, you can now start taking your own trades w/ Lanto's bias as confirmation. From taking signals -> taking own trades + Lanto confluence
Level 3: Once you have fully emerged as a trader in the community, you start taking your own trades entirely. This is the FINAL BOSS phase. Once here, and you see consistency, your investment to the community has paid off!
Time to build machines. You and I both work together at getting YOU at the next step.
Let's get it fam.
@gyaigyimii is this actual product that's available? i found the "who cares, i'm already late"
did you just modify this via AI? if not, please share link as this is FIRE!
@mtxxx27 Love the risk control. Stick with it!!!
The older I get in this game, the more I realize @Trader_Dante was right:
“Finding and taking excellent trades is not the hard part. The hard part is trying not to do anything stupid in between them.”
My edge isn’t my entries, it’s my ability to do nothing when there is nothing to do.
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