@OfficialApay Hopefully we end up with the same percentage ownership of APAY and our tokens don’t get watered down. So if currently we own 0.5% of total APAY tokens we should own the same 0.5% of the new one.
$DJT
Full Squawk Box interview with McGurn:
https://t.co/fenvbHnhz6
Sorkin and the desk ran the full program today:
Midterms and Democratic “siege” fear
Selective “the President’s family shouldn’t be in business” moralizing
Truth API treated as scandal
Fusion merger treated as an afterthought
The net effect of that coverage is simple.
It dooms the company in the public narrative, grinds down the psyche of retail shareholders, and helps keep the price and volatility suppressed.
While that is happening, desks and whales get to quietly acquire massive leverage across multiple expirations and strikes — low-delta calls at crushed IV — exactly the kind of convexity that becomes extremely valuable if the surface ever breaks.
Today’s tape:
Put/Call volume ratio: 0.12
Put/Call open interest ratio: 0.57
Continued building of multi-expiration call ladders (not retail weeklies)
So the television product sells maximum fear and political risk to the audience, while the options market shows larger players loading upside at discounted prices.
You can call it narrative bias.
You can call it aligned incentives.
Or you can say it out loud: this style of coverage functions as a daily assist for the same big players who are stacking leverage on the cheap while retail holders get their psychology worked over and the price is held down.
The gap between what is being said on air and what is being bought in size is no longer subtle.
NFA DYOR
CALIFORNIANS‼️YOU NOW HAVE A CHANCE TO SAVE YOUR GOLDEN STATE: VOTER ID!!!
Of COURSE the DEMOCRATS don’t WANT PROOF to VOTE! They wanna KEEP CHEATING FOREVER🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸
#VoteYesOnProp39
PLEASE RETWEET
$DJT
$DJT
For the record: I started building this convexity book right after the TAE announcement (late November / early December). I’ve bled duration through the long grind, but I’ve also used the gamma ramps to roll and add size, and the gamma crashes / sharp dips to roll and increase.
I’m now sitting on ~750 calls across the ladder — more conservative strikes than the big desks, but still real size. October starts at the $9s. November starts at the $10s.
That doesn’t automatically make me right. It does mean the large desks have already placed very large bets of their own:
September 18th expiration: roughly 5,000–7,000 calls per strike between $9 and $12 November: multiple strikes with over 10,000 open interest across the $15–$20 area (some levels 13k–16k)
Those are not retail lots. Those are structured convexity ladders.
Most people (and certain “price is truth” commentators) still don’t understand the mechanics. When the stock starts moving higher, dealer gamma on those ladders flips. They have to buy stock to hedge — first at $9, then $10, $11, $12, and higher. Each successive level forces more buying. The move becomes self-reinforcing.
That’s how a properly built convexity plane works once the pin breaks. Ignoring the open interest and the hedging flow while reducing everything to “it’s just BTC” is not analysis.
The setup has been in the market for months. Whether it triggers is a separate question — but the plumbing is real.
@michaellistman
NFA
Draft to @kjmcgurn:
@kjmcgurn
Quickly improving shareholder value and sentiment is not primarily about the share price. It is about volatility.
Right now the tape behaves like there is a pin in place on $DJT. The parties holding moderate to large amounts of rehypothecated / synthetic supply need the stock as stable as possible. Stability is their friend. Low volatility makes the suppression routine and cheap to maintain.
You said on the shareholder call that management would keep shareholders updated more frequently. That matters.
When the only thing hitting the news feeds is negative (or silence), suppressing the stock is easy.
When the company actually puts out steady, credible updates on the media side, the flywheel, partnerships, and the TAE progress, two things happen:
Speculators and longer-term capital have a reason to add.
Volatility rises.
Higher volatility is the enemy of a pin. It forces the other side to work harder and spend more to keep the surface contained.
Anyone with sense knows a legitimate path to closing the TAE merger does not support a ~$2B valuation. On the merger math alone the stock should be trading multiples higher. The fact that it is not is not a mystery — it is what sustained low-volatility suppression looks like.
Live up to what you said on the call.
More real updates → better sentiment → higher volatility → a harder surface to pin.
That is how you actually help shareholders from the company side.
NFA
$DJT
What the Tape and Mechanics Are Saying Into Next Week
Today we ran above $10.50 and pulled back to the $9.80s into the close. This is classic options-expiration + month-end behavior. Hedge funds and market makers mark books, adjust hedges, and roll positions on these days. That creates temporary mechanical pressure even when the underlying bid is still present.
The bigger picture from the recent tape: Repeated tests of the $9.98–$10.50 zone
Ability to push through key levels before the expiration noise hits
Continued signs that the long-side interest is still active and waiting for cleaner windows
Most likely scenario next week:
Once the expiration and month-end pressure lifts, the stock has a good chance to bounce with more vigor. The path of least resistance still looks higher if the long algos and institutional interest remain engaged, especially with the S-4 and Clarity Act windows still on the horizon. Short-term noise does not change the larger setup. The synthetic overhang is still expensive to maintain, and the catalyst calendar has not moved. Added into the close. Still holding for the long-term TAE story. We shall see. NFA DYOR
Mayor of Charlotte, NC asks that we not post about this lady murdered on a Charlotte train by a repeat offender with 14 prior arrests
I say in Iryna’s memory please share and make this go viral! A repeat offender with 14 prior arrests should not be roaming the streets of ANY city! They should be locked up!! Epic failure in the justice system..
We will never forgot her ever
Updated timing and sequence just a guess NFA DYOR
$DJT – My Updated Theory on Timing & Why It Makes Sense
I believe TMTG is deliberately staying quiet on full token details until the Clarity Act has real momentum. They locked in the critical anti-synthetic pieces early (Feb 2 record date + explicit exclusion of rehypothecated lenders), but they’re waiting for regulatory cover before giving the token real economic teeth.
Likely Sequence Now:
Clarity Act has cleared committee (15-9 yesterday) and is moving forward.
S-4 can now be filed/accelerated with cleaner language.
Once the bill gains strong momentum (or passes), they set the official token distribution date and upgrade the perks (platform benefits, activity rewards, MCGA/CRO integration, etc.).
This creates dual pressure — on both the main $DJT ticker and the new SpinCo (TVA) entity.
The shorts could be truly fucked.
Brokers will face hard delivery obligations on the record date. Real owners get SpinCo shares + valuable tokens. Synthetic holders get nothing. When liability hits, brokers will recall real shares in a heartbeat to protect themselves.
This isn’t about rushing a quick squeeze. It’s about building a clean, durable capital structure for a serious fusion + media + crypto company.
The experienced players (Schwab, Yorkville, etc.) understood the synthetic overhang and built the escape hatch accordingly.
The pin has given us time to accumulate. The mechanics are getting stronger in the background.
We shall see.
I am taxed without representation.
I am absolutely opposed to taxation, and this view has no representation in Congress at all.
There hasn't been a floor vote to repeal the income tax in 112 years.
The least one of you parasites could do to "earn" your six figure salary would be to file a bill to repeal the income tax.
Thank you for listening, and God bless.
If you are also taxed without representation like me, I would appreciate it if you repost this.
Californians, if you have not already, please get your Yellow immunization record cards for you and your family.
CAIR is NOT an Immunization Registry; it is targeting and tracking, especially your children for kidnapping..
Check this past newsletter going over the California CAIR brochure: https://t.co/z8Kw5fLpq9