Patrick Calver

Head of Strategic Communications @EconChange | Previously external affairs @jrf_uk | Even more previously @BankofEngland & @HMTreasury

[Cost of Living Action @CostOfLivingAct]

Almost two thirds of people in the UK have cut back on essentials due to the cost of living.The crisis isn’t over — it’s getting worse.

Today we're launching the Cost of Living Action campaign, calling on the Government to end this crisis and ensure it never happens again.

[Invest in Britain @Invest_Britain]

A group of the UK’s most distinguished economists have written to the Chancellor, warning her that new cuts to spending or investment at the Spring Statement would be a “profound mistake”:
https://t.co/Nkvc4p4pNn

[Joseph Rowntree Foundation @jrf_uk]

📉These #DisabilityBenefits cuts would be unprecedented - the largest since the OBR was created in 2010.

The 'Right to Try' guarantee might help to remove the barriers that prevent people from working, but enormous cuts mean the Government risks undermining any positives. 2/4

[Invest in Britain @Invest_Britain]

Andy Haldane: "It would be deeply counterproductive to both growth & to the fiscal position" to cut "investment & indeed in spending more generally" after the March OBR forecast.
He says cuts will lead to a doom loop btwn debt & growth: "that's a situation to avoid at all costs."

[rachelle_earwaker @r_earwaker]

New PRS stats out today for Oct 24 show an annual increase of 8.7% in GB and 10.5% in London, equating to £105 more per month on avg in GB and £204 in London, compared to Oct 23. These are big rises, on the back of the decision taken to keep LHA frozen at the Budget. 🧵 1/x

[New Economy Brief @NewEconomyBrief]

Early analysis shows that the economy (particularly the cost of living) drove Trump's election win.

This week, we explore the economic factors behind Trump’s success and the controversial policies he is proposing.

https://t.co/fYuguYc6KU

[Patrick Calver @CalverPatrick]

@Conor__OShea @genrentuk Best of luck with what’s next! It’s been a pleasure fighting the good fight with you over the last couple of years.

[Mariana Mazzucato @MazzucatoM]

In @thetimes, alongside @Gus_ODonnell & others, we welcome #Budget2024's shift on public investment & fiscal rules.

The UK has trailed behind G7 peers in both public & private investment for too long. This isn't just about spending more—it's about designing a fiscal framework that enables mission-aligned investment to crowd in private finance & drive long-term growth.

Patient, long-term public investment is critical for addressing key challenges like health & climate change. The new fiscal rules could create space for this, but success depends on how we design the guardrails to ensure investments deliver public value.

Read our letter ➡️ https://t.co/PQvKHUioTy

[Ben Chu @BenChu_]

Capital Economics helpfully puts the post #Budget UK government debt market moves in context.

There's been a rise in 10 year Gilt yields - a sign of market repricing in response to the extra borrowing - but nothing really comparable to what happened after the Sep 2022 Truss mini-Budget...

[Invest in Britain @Invest_Britain]

Our response to the Chancellor's first Budget today: https://t.co/RXHpdtmN3R

[Invest in Britain @Invest_Britain]

It's Budget Day and here is what we are looking for from the Chancellor.

Read our pre-Budget briefing on underinvestment in the UK economy, the impact of inherited plans for public investment cuts on growth, and the case for raising public investment: https://t.co/6wYojR3qmZ

[Hugo Gye @HugoGye]

@theipaper Polling shows voters and MPs support moves to relax borrowing rules in order to fund new long-term investment: https://t.co/sZ4FgTJYT5

[Anton Muscatelli @AntonMuscatelli]

There is a lot of nonsense being said about gilts yields reacting to the debate on changing the fiscal rules. This nice chart from @DeutscheBank shows that the communications from @RachelReevesMP and @hmtreasury have NOT impacted on market trends.

[Anton Muscatelli @AntonMuscatelli]

Yesterday's splash in the @FT suggested that UK gilts yields are rising on budget speculation around the fiscal rules. My letter in the FT explains why it's a bit more complicated.... "Reeves has to strike right balance on debt policy" (1/n) https://t.co/wCRYWLDuYi via @ft

[Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm]

There is an inclination to attribute the recent rise in yields on UK government bonds to, quoting today’s Financial Times, “concerns about the Labour government’s Budget, pushing the gap with Germany to the widest in more than a year.”
It is more complicated than that.
Just note the Bloomberg graphs below that show that the 10-year yield on US government bonds has increased by the same magnitude as the UK in the last month. The US move up has been in response to a stronger-than-expected economy there. Moreover, UK yields have traditionally been more sensitive to US yields than has been the case for German and other Eurozone yields.
The bottom line is that both domestic and global developments impact UK yields. Focusing on only one can deliver too partial a picture.
#economy #markets #UK #debt #gilts #econtwitter @FT

[Chris Birt @cdbirt]

🚨Poverty in Scotland 2024 out today.

Stark findings about levels of poverty and about how our social security system is failing us.

Looking forward to hearing both UK and Scottish governments’ response at the launch of the report this morning.

[New Economy Brief @NewEconomyBrief]

This week's New Economy Brief covered a variety of reports on the debates about public investment, growth and fiscal space from @TheIFS, @oeufling, @NIESRorg and @UKandEU.

Sign up to our weekly newsletter to get our 5 minute digest of key economic news: https://t.co/AjrH23MM18

[New Economy Brief @NewEconomyBrief]

🛫Will scrapping the non-dom tax break cause the rich to leave the UK?

This week’s New Economy Brief looks at the evidence which suggests the fears of capital flight are overblown.
In fact, there is a strong economic case for ambitious reform: https://t.co/avzi0YBBa1

[Patrick Calver @CalverPatrick]

@McnabGareth @jrf_uk @EconChange @Invest_Britain Thanks Gareth, looking forward to getting stuck in.

[Patrick Calver @CalverPatrick]

After 5 brilliant years at @jrf_uk I'm joining @EconChange today as its first Head of Strategic Communications.

I'll mainly be working on the ECU's new @Invest_Britain campaign, focusing on the urgent need to increase public investment in the UK. Can't wait to get started!

[Patrick Calver @CalverPatrick]

@RentersLondon @jrf_uk @EconChange @Invest_Britain Thank you!