Rikin Shah, CFA

Senior Analyst @omkaracap | Ex - Venture Capital | Views are personal and not recommendations

[Rikin Shah, CFA @capdepth]

A summary of 'How to calculate ROIC and handle common issues ' authored by Michael Mauboussin and Dan Callahan.

https://t.co/71RP1t5Oyi

@mjmauboussin

[Tajinder Bagga @TajinderBagga]

Booked an @AkasaAir ticket via @agoda and accidentally selected Navi Mumbai instead of Mumbai.

Tried cancelling via Agoda - they showed a cancellation fee of ₹4,764 and refund of just ₹1,571.

Then I checked directly with Akasa Air.

Akasa Air’s own cancellation page shows:
• Total deduction: ₹299
• Refund amount: ₹6,076

Akasa customer care also confirmed the airline cancellation charge is only ₹299, and since the booking was made through Agoda, the refund would go back to Agoda.

So the obvious question:

If the airline is deducting only ₹299, why is Agoda charging me ₹4,764?

That’s an extra ₹4,465 for what exactly?

Charging 15x the airline’s actual cancellation fee for the same ticket feels completely unethical.

@agodaindia please explain this loot.
@AkasaAir passengers deserve transparency from booking partners.

@jagograhakjago @MoCA_GoI

[Sajith Pai @sajithpai]

Pulak Prasad, one of the leading public market investors, and known for his lazy investing style (buy great businesses and hold forever) on 'not' using AI thus far.

If you narrow your top of funnel through well-thought through signals / proxies such as ROCE (his key filter), and then invest after a lot of primary research (talking to customers / suppliers, management), then AI may not add a lot of value here.

[screenshot from a PDF that is floating around featuring listener's notes + Q&A + transcript from a Pulak Prasad talk]

[Subramoney.com @pvsubramanyam]

Start accepting what I have been saying for the past 30 years.
Tatas have the greatest PR machinery. They threatened a big newspaper to toe their line after refusing them ads for 2 years. Old lady of Boribunder.
The best PR guys work for them. Even the worst.
Full range covered.

[Raghav Wadhwa @raghavwadhwa]

Thousands of crores worth of solar panels are installed across Rajasthan right now. Generating power. With NOWHERE to send it.

India's most expensive electricity isn't the kind that costs more. It's the kind that's already been made and has no road.

I went back and studied the entire transmission value chain. What I found changes how you should think about the power theme.

India just crossed 283 GW of non-fossil installed capacity. 274 GW of renewable + hydro. 8.78 GW of nuclear. Total generation capacity crossed 513 GW as of December 2025.

The numbers look great on paper. The problem is on the ground.

Rajasthan alone has 130 GW of grid connection applications. Transmission systems planned or under implementation? 73 GW. That leaves roughly 60 GW of renewable projects just sitting there waiting for a wire.

If one state has this gap, imagine the national picture.

India doesn't have a generation problem anymore. It has a delivery problem.

The government knows this. The National Electricity Plan lays it out clearly:

🔹 Transmission network: 5.04 lakh circuit km today → 6.48 lakh ckm by 2032
🔹 Transformation capacity: 1,429 GVA → 2,345 GVA
🔹 Inter-regional transfer capacity: 120 GW → 168 GW
🔹 Just for 2027-2032: 50,890 ckm of new lines + 433,575 MVA of new transformation capacity

This is not a projection from a broker report. This is formal government planning with budget allocation behind it.

And it's already showing up in execution. FY25 alone, 8,830 circuit km of transmission lines added and 86,433 MVA of transformation capacity commissioned.

Now here's what most investors get wrong. They treat "transmission" as one trade. It isn't. The value chain has very different economics at each layer, and the gap in return quality is massive.

Think of it as a 5-layer stack:

🔹 Layer 1: Lines and conductors
This is the volume layer. Towers, conductors, insulators, fittings. Demand is huge but margins are more commodity-linked. Raw material prices and bidding intensity drive outcomes more than capability moats.

🔹 Layer 2: EPC execution
Project ordering and pace of execution drive this layer. Strong revenue torque when cycle is up. But working capital is heavy, receivables can stretch, and right-of-way delays are constant.

🔹 Layer 3: Substations and electrical equipment
This is where it gets interesting. A transmission line mainly drives towers and wire. A substation drives transformers, reactors, GIS, switchgear, metering, protection, and controls, all at once. With 86,433 MVA added in FY25 and much more planned, this may be the richest layer in the cycle. Rising demand from data centres, metros, manufacturing, and commercial load centres makes this even more relevant.

🔹 Layer 4: Transformers and switchgear
These sit inside both the renewable pooling story and the urban grid strengthening story. Higher product complexity, longer approval cycles, stronger technical barriers. Better operating leverage if utilization tightens.

🔹 Layer 5: HVDC and advanced grid technology
This is the highest-moat layer. Standard AC handles most expansion. But long-distance renewable evacuation from Rajasthan, Gujarat, and Ladakh increasingly needs HVDC.

The Bhadla-Fatehpur corridor: ±800 kV, 6,000 MW, ~950 km. Hitachi Energy and BHEL are involved. Targeted by 2029. It's part of the backbone for India's 500 GW renewable ambition.

HVDC involves converter stations, converter transformers, thyristor valves, and complex integration. Qualified vendors globally are fewer than 10. Pricing power sits here.

👉This is the important part: not all beneficiaries in this chain will generate the same quality of earnings.

Volume players benefit from demand, but margins stay thin. Equipment makers with capacity constraints and qualification barriers are where operating leverage shows up. Technology players with HVDC and digital grid capability sit in the widest moat.

The grid is getting more complex, higher voltage, GIS adoption, digital substations, renewable pooling, HVDC corridors. Every step narrows the field of credible participants. That's the rerating trigger.

Risks are real. Execution delays, right-of-way issues, working capital stress in EPC, import dependence in advanced systems, and overbidding in commoditized packages. Study this in layers, not as one trade.

India's renewable story cannot scale without a much larger grid. The generation side gets the headlines. The transmission side determines whether any of it actually works.

In this cycle, the silent grid may capture more value than the louder generation story.

Listed companies by layer:

🔶Grid owners and developers
🔹Power Grid Corporation: India's central transmission utility, owns 90%+ of inter-state network
🔹Adani Energy Solutions: fastest-growing private transmission developer

🔶EPC contractors
🔹KEC International: RPG Group, present across T&D, railways, civil
🔹Kalpataru Projects International: strong T&D order book, international presence
🔹Bajel Projects: focused play on transmission towers and EPC

🔶Conductors, cables, line materials
🔹Apar Industries: Exports fibre optic and conductors to 50+ countries
🔹KEI Industries: power cables, scaling distribution presence
🔹Polycab India: wires, cables, and emerging FMEG play
🔹Dynamic Cables: smaller, focused on HT/LT cables and conductors

🔶 Transformers and substation equipment
🔹Hitachi Energy India: GIS, transformers, HVDC, grid automation
🔹CG Power: transformers, switchgear, motors, strong industrial base
🔹Transformers & Rectifiers India: direct play on transformer capex cycle
🔹Indo Tech Transformers: niche, high-voltage transformers
🔹Bharat Bijlee: transformers and motors
🔹BHEL: power equipment, HVDC involvement, diversified
🔹GE Vernova T&D India: ₹12,000 crore order inflows in one quarter on HVDC wins

🔶HVDC and grid technology (highest moat)
🔹Hitachi Energy India: only listed pure-play on HVDC in India
🔹GE Vernova T&D India: HVDC corridors, grid automation
🔹Siemens India: energy automation, digital substations
🔹ABB India: UPS, power distribution, data centre grid play

🔶Smart metering and grid digitisation
🔹Genus Power: smart meter specialist
🔹HPL Electric: metering and switchgear

Transmission is no longer a support sector. It is becoming the core enabler of India’s next power cycle.

⚡️ Disclaimer: The above data should not be considered a buy or sell recommendation. This analysis is shared only for educational and learning purposes.

[Prabhakar Kudva @prabhakarkudva]

Your return is largely a function of your portfolio construction and yet it gets almost no thought in most portfolios.

Six things you need to think about while constructing your portfolio and its risk-reward:

1. What will be the market cap split?
2. What will be the sectoral/thematic split?
3. Number of stocks and allocation range per stock.
4. Primary source of edge? growth/value/special situation/quality/cyclicality?
5. Whats the holding period you're underwriting - 6-12 months/1-3 years/3 year plus
6. Position Mgmt - profit taking, exposure mgmt and loss taking guidelines

If one develops clarity around these, the decision making will become materially better and most importantly large errors will significantly reduce and keep you in the game for a long time.

[arun mampazhy @nano_arun]

Those who have ambitions of becoming Indian WFE (wafer fab equipment) makers, don't get stuck only with litho tools, there are many more, one such below

https://t.co/IoXYKW5yWt

[hoeem @hooeem]

YOU JUST CONNECT CLAUDE CODE WITH NOTEBOOKLM AND IT EXTENDS YOUR SESSIONS BY SAVING YOUR TOKENS.

NOW GO & BUILD!

[hoeem @hooeem]

https://t.co/8JWI4me9RE

[Mystic Wealth @MysticWealth11]

PIN this tweet.
Coffee Can is a BUY here.

This is an amazing indicator.

[Ruben Hassid @rubenhassid]

Claude is offering 13 AI courses & certificates.

All free. Here are all 13 links (+ my own guides):

1. Go to each link below. Enroll. It's free.
2. But honestly? My newsletter covers it better.
3. I'll explain at the end. Start with the official ones:

---

1 - Claude 101. Learn Claude for everyday work.
↳ https://t.co/OvBmlvnVqL

2 - AI Fluency: Frameworks & Foundations.
↳ https://t.co/cObZdwCmXP

3 - Introduction to Agent Skills.
↳ https://t.co/wZsD0PxJwi

4 - Building with the Claude API.
↳ https://t.co/RcCbfNjlzz

5 - Claude Code in Action.
↳ https://t.co/y29CC0GBaN

6 - Intro to Model Context Protocol.
↳ https://t.co/Qnrn0NHxyI

7 - MCP: Advanced Topics.
↳ https://t.co/0S5f4kESzG

8 - AI Fluency for Students.
↳ https://t.co/YIOopqo7WB

9 - AI Fluency for Educators.
↳ https://t.co/54oLlYjLGD

10 - Teaching AI Fluency.
↳ https://t.co/fHdgs6uNDM

11 - AI Fluency for Nonprofits.
↳ https://t.co/xFKngNz09m

12 - Claude with Amazon Bedrock.
↳ https://t.co/dV6xi7UiaL

13 - Claude with Google Cloud's Vertex AI.
↳ https://t.co/MEzAxODPW4

---

Official courses are good. But they're theoretical.
I wrote how-to guides that show you what to do.

Here's how to master Claude (for free):

1. Start here: https://t.co/jw2qdIcjnh
☑ The basics of Claude.
☑ How to prompt it the right way.
☑ The different types of Claude to master.

2. Move to Cowork: https://t.co/uWTpOI3Woc
☑ The more advanced Claude is Claude Cowork.
☑ How to prompt it and set it up properly.
☑ It's a long process. But worth every minute.

3. Set up Claude for teams: https://t.co/qxlcqhf8bM
☑ Setting up Claude for teams is different.
☑ This is the easiest 5-day plan I could find.
☑ 5 steps so your team runs on Claude in a week.

4. Use Claude Skills: https://t.co/jT4uB5Bdjw
☑ Stop prompting, build your first skill.
☑ 7 favourite hacks of Claude Skills.
☑ Access Claude's team skills.

5. Claude Computer: https://t.co/TxYuHPjgbV
☑ Access Claude Computer.
☑ Use cases of Claude Computer.
☑ Schedule tasks with Claude.

6. Claude Code: https://t.co/WYZd5ltVMW
☑ English is the new code.
☑ Code 100x faster.
☑ Prompt Claude Code the right way.

7. Bonus (to go even deeper).
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---

All of this is free. Here's how to get it:
1. Go to https://t.co/psB7XxB2Y4. Add your email.
2. A pop-up will ask you to pay. Do not pay.
3. Open my welcome email & enjoy the free guides.

431,000+ people read it weekly. Join them.
♻️ Repost this so others get free AI education.

[Antifragile Thinking @unseenvalue]

CDMO of math and physics. Worth reading 👇

[Shankar Sharma @1shankarsharma]

Le Grand Fromage 's piece
" BUFFETT'S REAL LESSON IS THE ONE YOU NEVER LEARNT" in Business Standard.

Without timing the market, you can't make significant excess returns. Remaining always fully invested/ always equities, simply doesnt work.

Markets can be timed. Not doing so, reverts Indian equity returns to just ~8-10% in INR.
Adjust for tax (~15%), then volatility (~10%), and you don't even make FD Returns.
That too, after so much jhanjhat.

But folks who know the Inner Game of timing cycles and asset classes, won't do it for aam janata, that too for a measly 1-2%.

They 'd rather do it for themselves for 50%.

[Sharbel @sharbel]

> paid for Claude Pro for 6 months
> kept hitting rate limits
> switched to Max
> still hitting rate limits
> found Projects last week
> my context problem was never the plan
> it was me not using the tool properly
> skill issue discovered

[Tar ⚡ @itsTarH]

If you have people working for you (cook, house help, driver)

make sure they know about these:

Pradhan Mantri Jan Dhan Yojana (PMJDY): zero balance bank account + DBT access

Pradhan Mantri Jeevan Jyoti Bima Yojana (PMJJBY): low cost life insurance

Pradhan Mantri Suraksha Bima Yojana (PMSBY): accident and disability cover

Atal Pension Yojana (APY): guaranteed pension after 60 for unorganised sector

You can help spread awareness and help them get access to financial security

[Prajwal Tomar @PrajwalTomar_]

STOP asking Claude Code to design your apps.

It’s great for logic, not design.

Google Stitch 2.0 + Claude Code via MCP is the workflow that finally fixes the AI slop problem.

If you want to build apps that actually look good, read this.

[Alvaro Cintas @dr_cintas]

How to set up Claude Cowork in minutes and top use cases to automate your work:

1. Get the desktop app: claude .ai/download/
2. Open it. Switch to the Cowork tab at the top.
3. Go to Settings → Cowork → Global Instructions. Tell it your role, your formats, your tone. Once. Done.

Here are some of my favorite use cases:

1. Clean up a messy folder.
Prompt: "Scan my Downloads folder. Propose categories, naming conventions, and files to flag. Show me the plan before touching anything."

2. Turn meeting notes into one report.
Prompt: "Read every file in this folder. Synthesize key themes, pain points, and open action items into a Word doc. Organize by client, then by date. Flag anything mentioned more than once."

3. Handle client updates in one shot.
Prompt: "Pull the last 5 project reports from my Drive. Draft a personalized email update for each project lead. Flag anything overdue. Save drafts to Gmail ready to send."

4. Put your week on autopilot.
Type /schedule inside any task. Set it to run every Monday at 8am. It just runs.

Now here's where it gets serious:

✦ Connectors link Cowork to your actual tools.

Go to Settings → Connectors → Browse Connectors. You'll find Google Drive, Gmail, Slack, Notion, and hundreds more.

The difference from regular AI connectors? In chat, a connector shows you your Drive data. In Cowork, it pulls it, processes it, and pushes the output back.

✦ Plugins turn Claude into a role-specific agent.

Go to Customize → Browse Plugins. There are plugins for marketing, sales, HR, legal, finance, operations. Each one loads pre-built slash commands for that role.

Type / and you'll see them all. For example:

• Marketing plugin: To create content, plan campaigns, and analyze performance across marketing channels

• Sales plugin: Connects to your CRM. Runs prospect research and call prep automatically.

• Productivity plugin: Manage tasks, plan your day, and build up memory of important context about your work.

Get daily AI tutorials here: https://t.co/xViEAXTphX

Claude Cowork is def not just a chatbot. It does things for you..with your files, your tools, and your workflows.

Start using it and you’ll see how much time it saves you.

[Varinder Bansal 🇮🇳 @vbomkara]

I don't tweet for publicity or money. Never been paid to post anything.
But some people use uncertainty to skip facts, spread lies, and create panic.
The world is anxious enough. Don't add to it.

PS: Largest crowd I've seen in Downtown Dubai this whole week — and it was today.

[Mahesh Jethmalani @JethmalaniM]

Congress did not just govern weakly. It perfected the art of distracting India from its own incompetence before 2014.

And the tweets below are not going anywhere, even if the party and it's minions try to whitewash them.

When India needed spine, Congress party offered surrender; when India needed clarity, Congress manufactured distraction.

From 26/11 to any other terrorist attacks planned and executed in India by Pakistan, the Congress formula can be summed in one line: fail on national interest, then flood the public space with noise, diversion, and non-issues so nobody focuses on the rot.

They did not just govern badly. They perfected the art of weakening India and then changing the subject.

The Congress party was and remains actively a machine for sabotaging national interest and then gaslighting the country about who was to blame.

[Intrinsic Compounding @soicfinance]

When stocks go on a holiday

Had you told someone in 2020-2021 that by investing in ITC, HDFC BANK, & TCS which are bluest of blue chips, you will end up underperforming NSE 500 massively. They wouldn't have believed you

NSE 500 vs HDFC bank vs TCS vs ITC since 2021.

Made using @stockscansin