Rikin Shah, CFA

Senior Analyst @omkaracap | Ex - Venture Capital | Views are personal and not recommendations

[Rikin Shah, CFA @capdepth]

A summary of 'How to calculate ROIC and handle common issues ' authored by Michael Mauboussin and Dan Callahan.

https://t.co/71RP1t5Oyi

@mjmauboussin

[JAGDISH ARORA @AroraJagdish]

@capdepth @capdepth is celebrating today . 👍👍

[Rikin Shah, CFA @capdepth]

@ravi_flows @unseenvalue That’s why I said I was invested and not the firm bro! Checkout my interaction with the promoter prior to the IPO.

[Rikin Shah, CFA @capdepth]

Was invested around ₹350 when hardly anyone believed. The thesis was never about the quarter: deep science, customer relationships, and a technocrat promoter who compounds capability.

You'd know the pattern from Laurus.

[Antifragile Thinking @unseenvalue]

"₹2000 crores CDMO by FY30" – CMD, Acutaas Chemicals, Q2 FY27 earnings call

[Rikin Shah, CFA @capdepth]

@unseenvalue @punitbansal14 He was truly a gem in the entire process 🙏🏻 @punitbansal14

[Rikin Shah, CFA @capdepth]

Thanks Yatin bhai 😊

[Yatin Arora @Yatinaroraa]

@capdepth I remember first time you presented ami around march 2024 to Omkara subscribers and kept on guiding well through out its journey. And earlier this year in Mumbai you wur very confident on acutaas and laurus both. Much thanks!!

[Harry Kane @HKane]

Work hard in silence. Let success be your noise. 🏆

[Options selling with Christian @optionscjp]

In case you're confused about what's going on with Elon Musk tanking the neoclouds, here's the timeline of everything that's happened

> Oct 13: Chamath posts a chart of $CRWV bonds yielding 15%. Musk replies one word. "Yikes"

> Oct 14: $CRWV falls 15.5% in one day. $NBIS -10%, $IREN -10%. Gartner warns the same day that 80% of neoclouds could disappear by 2030

> Oct 15: $CRWV credit default swaps hit a RECORD 1,100+ bps. The market is pricing a 60%+ chance they default within 5 years. Their 2031 bonds yield 16%

> Oct 16: the bonds fall under 80 cents. Distressed. $CRWV down another 12%. The stock lost about 25% that week

> Oct 19: Goldman upgrades $CRWV to Buy anyway. Stock does nothing

> Oct 22: $NBIS raises $3.5B from Citi. It matures in ONE year. That's the kind of money still available to these guys

> Oct 25: a clip of $NBIS's CEO from GTC Berlin goes around X. He admits debt markets and asset-backed financing have "temporarily dried up"

> Oct 25: Musk goes in. "200+ neoclouds are going to see guppy-level death and consolidation." Says debt markets are shut for anyone without real revenue outside AI data centers. Says SpaceX just closed $40B of debt to buy GPUs because they have Starlink and launch revenue

> Someone asks if he's tanking them so he can buy one cheap. Musk: "SpaceX is not buying any neoclouds. Pointless"

> Sunday night: $CRWV and $NBIS down another 2.3% overnight. $IREN -2%

$CRWV is down 38% in a month. $NBIS is down 33%

Also worth noting - SpaceX sells AI compute too. Anthropic's deals with SpaceXAI could be worth up to $84.5B through 2029. Musk is a competitor talking about his competition and might just be trying to starve his competitors with x

[Waw 👑 @WawKasem]

exponential tech still obeys thermodynamics lol you should check the 2nd law

1 gold atom ≥ 1 D-T fusion (17.6 MeV) → ~74 MWh/oz
Hg-198 = 10% of mercury, world output ~3 kt/yr → ≤ ~300 t gold/yr even at 100% yield

that’s still ~10% of mine supply

and EEEEEEEEVENNNNN if we have fusion reactors so energy costs 0

we wouldn't find enough mercury to make gold

[Rikin Shah, CFA @capdepth]

But for Indian players manufacturing via the Acetic Acid route, the spreads may have contracted!

[Ajay Joshi Chemicals @JoshiEien]

Fun fact: The solvent behind GLP-1 weight-loss drugs has nearly tripled in 2 months.

China industrial-grade acetonitrile: ¥7,700/t (mid-Aug) → ~¥21,500/t (mid-Oct).
Biggest buyers are no longer agchem plants; it's peptide API makers for semaglutide & tirzepatide.

The catch: ~70% of China's supply is a byproduct of acrylonitrile units. Nobody makes it on purpose.

[Ritesh Jain @riteshmjn]

Fantastic data.

[दिव्या @divya_16_]

Modi luck strikes again. Thanks to Elon diatribe, within barely two days, Indians now see how dangerous Starlink can be. Modi again becomes the saviour without lifting a finger 🤣

[Saikiran Pulavarthi @P_Sai_Kiran]

Good data.. But you should consider largecap allocations in Large & Mid cap, Flexi, Multi asset categories as well

If one combines that numbers can meaningfully change

[Palak Shah @palakshahjourno]

Pantomath: Banker, Buyer and Seller

A Mumbai investment bank's own funds keep turning up in the deals it sells. The investors who buy those deals have done badly.

Will SEBI look into this potential conflict?

read only in @BWBusinessworld @anuragbatrayo
https://t.co/ejT3Ym5b5y

[Saikiran Pulavarthi @P_Sai_Kiran]

Pretty good read

@ncbn @naralokesh

[Grok @grok]

Key disadvantages of allowing Starlink in India include:

National security risks: Foreign-controlled network limits India's ability to shut off service in sensitive border areas or ensure availability during crises. Past reports of terminals with militants or smugglers raise misuse concerns.

Data sovereignty issues: Laser links could route traffic outside Indian gateways, complicating monitoring and lawful interception.

High costs: Hardware and monthly fees likely far exceed affordable terrestrial options like Jio or Airtel, limiting rural access.

Market impact: Could disrupt local telecoms and foster over-reliance on a single US provider instead of domestic alternatives.

[Shesh Paul Vaid @spvaid]

360 degree turn in geopolitics and the world dynamics.

[Abhijit Iyer-Mitra @Iyervval]

Gee. Any guesses what triggered Elon’s tweet?

[Rikin Shah, CFA @capdepth]

Well coordinated attack!

[Dhaval (Investment Books) @InvestmentBook1]

Jio/Airtel/BSNL: a few dollars for a monthly recharge ($3)

Starlink: $300+ hardware + ~$100/month

And Elon saying Starlink will “connect rural India.

How exactly will the average villager afford this?

[Nirwa Mehta @nirwamehta]

Leader of Opposition, ladies and gentlemen. Shitting on his own country because he hates the man who is a democratically elected prime minister of India.

[Rikin Shah, CFA @capdepth]

@sanjaylangval @ithoughtpms @XponentTribe @kshayjogani Congratulations 🥳