SOXQ broke below its short-term trendline earlier this week and is now testing the 50-day MA and the lower end of its recent range.
Momentum breakouts in either direction have been a losing strategy since mid-May, with mean reversion continuing to dominate.
RSI is now at its most oversold reading since late May—a level worth watching.
Is a Rebound in Tech Gearing Up?
After a tough month for tech, the picture may be starting to improve. Positioning has been reset, valuations look more compelling, and relative strength indicators are showing early signs of recovery.
BREAKING: OpenAI is reportedly leaning toward delaying its IPO until 2027, per NYT.
Key details:
• Recent market volatility has prompted the company to reconsider its IPO timeline.
• OpenAI is concerned retail investor demand may be weaker than expected.
• Advisors are weighing two options: wait until 2027 for a potential $1T valuation or pursue an earlier IPO at a lower valuation.
Recent tech stock volatility has added to IPO concerns.
Similar Trade. The Stakes Are High
Semis are testing key support as the dollar breaks out and crowded trades continue leaning on leverage, momentum, and retail flows.
SMH is sitting on its 21DMA at the lower end of its trend channel. If this level fails, the next meaningful support is the 50DMA—nearly 10% lower.
Big Take on SPY
S&P futures are testing the 50-day MA and approaching the lower end of the recent range.
The 740 area remains the key short-term line in the sand.
A potential double top is also taking shape, with the second high below the first. Not confirmed, but a development worth watching.