Capital Reckless

🇮🇩 | Accountability monitor; opinions are my own

[Capital Reckless @capitalreckless]

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[orph @orphcorp]

i think about this often

[Capital Reckless @capitalreckless]

@tanyakanrl Biar aman pemilu 2029 udah nambah 44.000 pemilih Prabowo - Jan ethes

[Capital Reckless @capitalreckless]

Great thesis and should be tested further, but a couple pushbacks:

Indo banks' funding is CASA heavy, which props up NIM;

Indo banks still have a lot of ground to cover domestically, hence no intl expansion;

Higher credit risk partly explains high lending rate.

Though I agree that we should benchmark to Vietnam & build directed, subsidized financing for productive projects.

[Capital Reckless @capitalreckless]

@AngelsSalo87763 Short (not willing to put money on it though).

Saylor can't buy in size, & with mNAV<1, the compounding accretive effects no longer works.

If BTC goes down, preffered stocks gets paid and MSTR stock will tumble again

[Capital Reckless @capitalreckless]

@rickyho_1989 Mostly copium, me included

[Ricky Ho @rickyho_1989]

The issue is not whether children should receive nutritious meals. The issue is whether Indonesia has chosen the most expensive way possible to achieve that goal.

If the numbers in this chart are broadly correct, Indonesia is allocating 8.3% of its national budget to the MBG program, far above the proportions seen in countries such as the United States, Japan, India, and Brazil. That alone should trigger a serious discussion about efficiency, targeting, and implementation.

A well-designed nutrition program should begin with data. First, identify which schools actually need assistance. Many students already come from households that can afford meals or attend schools that already provide food. There is little reason for taxpayers to subsidize lunches universally when resources are limited.

Second, prioritize existing infrastructure. If a school already has a functioning cafeteria and kitchen, funding should flow directly there. If a school lacks facilities, build the kitchen and cafeteria first, creating a permanent asset that can serve generations of students. Corporate CSR programs, philanthropic foundations, and international development grants can help finance part of this expansion before relying entirely on the national budget.

Only when schools are too remote, too small, or lack the scale to operate efficiently should centralized kitchens such as SPPGs be deployed to serve multiple schools. In other words, SPPGs should be the exception, not the default solution.

Many successful school meal programs around the world are highly targeted. The United States focuses heavily on low-income households through free and reduced-price lunch programs. Japan integrates school kitchens directly into schools and treats meals as part of the educational process. Brazil prioritizes local procurement and community participation. None rely on a one-size-fits-all national model.

The challenge with MBG is not the objective. Few would disagree that better nutrition improves learning outcomes and long-term productivity. The challenge is making sure every rupiah spent maximizes impact.

Every rupiah allocated to MBG is a rupiah that cannot be spent on teachers, healthcare, sanitation, housing, irrigation, or infrastructure. That is why scale alone should never be the measure of success. The real measure is whether the program delivers the best nutritional outcome at the lowest possible cost to taxpayers.

Good policy is not about spending more. It is about spending smarter.

[Capital Reckless @capitalreckless]

@rickyho_1989 wow, great insight & writeup, thanks mate

[Capital Reckless @capitalreckless]

@BagusPerdana_ ngeri bgt mikirin unwind nya... pasti bakal mitigate pake jalur backdoor (halt trade / nego sama respective bank) tapi

[Capital Reckless @capitalreckless]

@rickyho_1989 Prescient

[Capital Reckless @capitalreckless]

As citizens we also wonder why...

[Ray Myers @TheRayMyers]

@MikeFritzell Why emerging economies always sabotage their development? Its like they wanna remain poor.

[Capital Reckless @capitalreckless]

@BagusPerdana_ @bangherwin Implementasi nya bakal kacau balau.

Di saat ekonomi kyk begini bukannya ngasih kepastian, tapi malah nambah uncertainty & volatility... Namanya Presiden itu harus bijak bukan soal policy doang tp soal timing

[Capital Reckless @capitalreckless]

The bar is so low already… just dont do anything stupid @prabowo

[Pink Bourbon @pinkbourbon8898]

All eyes on RI1. Five minutes. That's the whole market right now.

Nobody is asking for a miracle. Just don't make it worse. Come out, hold the room, say something that sounds like a plan. That's the bar.

The bones are fine. Indonesia is still a net commodity exporter in an environment where that matters. BI has room. The current account is not the problem.

The problem is the silence before this speech.

Markets priced uncertainty for weeks. What they need now is a voice. Clear, calm, in control. If RI1 delivers that, the market tells you by close.

If not, well. Capital just leaves.

God bless Indonesia.

[Capital Reckless @capitalreckless]

I keep falling in the same trap over and over again… lost way too much

Grow or die

[Capital Reckless @capitalreckless]

The Indonesian government needs to start thinking about second-order effects of abrupt and rushed policy decisions

Centralizing exports to mitigate currency depreciation will end up bad…

[Capital Reckless @capitalreckless]

New policies increasing room for bureaucratic red tape, and ‘negotiation’ with govt officials, will always result adversely for a country

[Capital Reckless @capitalreckless]

@keshikiayame Kyk tangan doraemon

[Capital Reckless @capitalreckless]

@Cheytax_1 Govt slapping taxes to investable industries to cover its budget deficit…

I wonder if they ofter forget that second order effects exists @KemenkeuRI

[Capital Reckless @capitalreckless]

Uncertainty on the rise yet again…

What’s next?

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

UAE SAYS IT QUITS OPEC AND OPEC+ -STATEMENT

UAE SAYS IT WILL LEAVE OPEC AND OPEC+ AS OF MAY 1 - STATE NEWS AGENCY

[Capital Reckless @capitalreckless]

Mau nyalon biasa, harus up public image dulu

[Capital Reckless @capitalreckless]

@meridian_rsrch Can’t wait to read this tmr

[Capital Reckless @capitalreckless]

@Cheytax_1 @bemybaby125102 mostly karena saat USD/IDR peak selalu unstable macro nya ID, jd capital flight to safe assets (US treasuries)