Great thesis and should be tested further, but a couple pushbacks:
Indo banks' funding is CASA heavy, which props up NIM;
Indo banks still have a lot of ground to cover domestically, hence no intl expansion;
Higher credit risk partly explains high lending rate.
Though I agree that we should benchmark to Vietnam & build directed, subsidized financing for productive projects.
@AngelsSalo87763 Short (not willing to put money on it though).
Saylor can't buy in size, & with mNAV<1, the compounding accretive effects no longer works.
If BTC goes down, preffered stocks gets paid and MSTR stock will tumble again
The issue is not whether children should receive nutritious meals. The issue is whether Indonesia has chosen the most expensive way possible to achieve that goal.
If the numbers in this chart are broadly correct, Indonesia is allocating 8.3% of its national budget to the MBG program, far above the proportions seen in countries such as the United States, Japan, India, and Brazil. That alone should trigger a serious discussion about efficiency, targeting, and implementation.
A well-designed nutrition program should begin with data. First, identify which schools actually need assistance. Many students already come from households that can afford meals or attend schools that already provide food. There is little reason for taxpayers to subsidize lunches universally when resources are limited.
Second, prioritize existing infrastructure. If a school already has a functioning cafeteria and kitchen, funding should flow directly there. If a school lacks facilities, build the kitchen and cafeteria first, creating a permanent asset that can serve generations of students. Corporate CSR programs, philanthropic foundations, and international development grants can help finance part of this expansion before relying entirely on the national budget.
Only when schools are too remote, too small, or lack the scale to operate efficiently should centralized kitchens such as SPPGs be deployed to serve multiple schools. In other words, SPPGs should be the exception, not the default solution.
Many successful school meal programs around the world are highly targeted. The United States focuses heavily on low-income households through free and reduced-price lunch programs. Japan integrates school kitchens directly into schools and treats meals as part of the educational process. Brazil prioritizes local procurement and community participation. None rely on a one-size-fits-all national model.
The challenge with MBG is not the objective. Few would disagree that better nutrition improves learning outcomes and long-term productivity. The challenge is making sure every rupiah spent maximizes impact.
Every rupiah allocated to MBG is a rupiah that cannot be spent on teachers, healthcare, sanitation, housing, irrigation, or infrastructure. That is why scale alone should never be the measure of success. The real measure is whether the program delivers the best nutritional outcome at the lowest possible cost to taxpayers.
Good policy is not about spending more. It is about spending smarter.
@BagusPerdana_@bangherwin Implementasi nya bakal kacau balau.
Di saat ekonomi kyk begini bukannya ngasih kepastian, tapi malah nambah uncertainty & volatility... Namanya Presiden itu harus bijak bukan soal policy doang tp soal timing
All eyes on RI1. Five minutes. That's the whole market right now.
Nobody is asking for a miracle. Just don't make it worse. Come out, hold the room, say something that sounds like a plan. That's the bar.
The bones are fine. Indonesia is still a net commodity exporter in an environment where that matters. BI has room. The current account is not the problem.
The problem is the silence before this speech.
Markets priced uncertainty for weeks. What they need now is a voice. Clear, calm, in control. If RI1 delivers that, the market tells you by close.
If not, well. Capital just leaves.
God bless Indonesia.
The Indonesian government needs to start thinking about second-order effects of abrupt and rushed policy decisions
Centralizing exports to mitigate currency depreciation will end up bad…
@Cheytax_1 Govt slapping taxes to investable industries to cover its budget deficit…
I wonder if they ofter forget that second order effects exists @KemenkeuRI