Brian Seay, CFA

Helping families steward wealth. Believer / Husband / Dad / Investor. Host The Capital Stewards Podcast. Tweets not advice, duh.

[Brian Seay, CFA @capitalsteward]

@youtube the new ads that “cut in” over the top of content are ridiculous. I can’t actually watch what I’m trying to watch. Not a good experience and not a way to make we watch more.

[Brian Seay, CFA @capitalsteward]

No Full Swing discussion this year @NoLayingUp ?

[Brian Seay, CFA @capitalsteward]

Had the chance to join the Next Gen Investing show live earlier today to talk markets, the Iran ceasefire, and what investors should actually be doing in this environment.

A few of the points we covered:

→ Why “announced ceasefires” and “implemented peace deals” are very different things — and what the next 7-to-10 days mean for oil prices.

→ The Q4 data mirage: GDP was originally reported at 1.4%. The final number came in at 0.5%. The economy was meaningfully weaker entering this conflict than the headlines suggested.

→ The K-shaped economy is becoming a structural feature, not a passing phase. AI investment and the wealth effect are doing most of the heavy lifting.

→ One stat most viewers don’t realize: gold outperformed both stocks and bonds in 2025 — and did it again in Q1 2026. That tells you something about the value of diversifying beyond U.S. large-caps.

→ The bottom line: have a plan, stay diversified beyond the obvious names, and don’t let the next two weeks of headlines drive 10-year decisions.

Full segment here:

https://t.co/Nmlp9HI5CV

Always grateful to the team for the opportunity.
#Markets #InvestmentStrategy #Diversification #FinancialPlanning #FeeOnlyAdvisor

[Javier Blas @JavierBlas]

Iran can remain irrational longer the Donald Trump (and the global economy) can stay solvent.

[Brian Seay, CFA @capitalsteward]

@Direct_TV_ I pay for direct TV to watch the Braves in Huntsville, AL. If you don’t have a deal with them tomorrow, I can switch to another provider, no problem. Time to make a deal.

[Brian Seay, CFA @capitalsteward]

@Braves This will be great! If only I knew where I could watch Brandon and CJ…

[Brian Seay, CFA @capitalsteward]

@DOBrienATL Does this mean it’s only semi-retirement? Maybe start a Substack?

[Brian Seay, CFA @capitalsteward]

I kept the receipts on Wall Street’s 2025 predictions. 🧾

Every December, the smartest PhDs at Goldman, JPM, and UBS tell us exactly where the S&P 500 will end the next year.

And every December, I look back to see who got it right.

The results for 2025? A lesson in humility.

📉 The Bears: UBS predicted "soggy" growth and an S&P at 5,800. ❌ Result: Missed by 1,000+ points.

📈 The Bulls: Goldman & JPM called for 6,500. ✅ Result: Closer, but they missed the "broadening rally." (Tech still ate everything).

🥇 The Silent Winner: Almost everyone predicted Gold would rise ~15% or even drop. 🚀 Result: Gold rallied 50%+.

Even our own outlook at Capital Stewards missed the sheer scale of the AI infrastructure boom.

Why does this matter for your money?

If the biggest banks in the world with unlimited data can't predict the next 12 months, why are you building a portfolio based on "guessing" what happens next?

In our latest podcast, we break down: • Why the recession never came (thank you, AI CapEx). • The asset class that quietly crushed the S&P 500. • How to build a portfolio that works even when the forecasts are wrong.

Question: Did your portfolio surprise you in 2025, or did it do exactly what you expected? Let me know in the comments. 👇

#Investing #Markets #2025Review #WealthManagement #CapitalStewards

https://t.co/8FjEqFhDvz

[Brian Seay, CFA @capitalsteward]

Year End Planning Tips: Think Before You Give.

First, I encourage you to be generous to your church, to your family and to your community. I always suggest defining your giving goal before you start planning for taxes. Your philanthropic goal should be the main driver, not takes. But once you figure out where to give, think about potential ways to maximize your gift or reduce your taxes before write a check.

Markets are up significantly this year, so consider donating appreciated assets such as stocks or mutual funds. This not only provides a deduction based on the asset's fair market value but also avoids capital gains taxes on the appreciation. Most organizations know how to facilitate these transactions, so just reach out to the gifts coordinator or financial manager and they can help you transfer assets directly.

Additionally, if you are 70½ or older, you can make a Qualified Charitable Distribution (QCD) from your IRA. This allows you to donate up to $108,000 directly to a charity, which counts towards your Required Minimum Distribution (RMD), but is not included in your taxable income. So you can meet your RMD requirement, and help out a good cause.
So Give! But think before you do it!

[Brian Seay, CFA @capitalsteward]

Year End Planning Tips: Eliminate “Phantom” Mutual Fund Tax Distributions with ETFs.

If you are investing through mutual funds, you may receive those “phantom” year-end capital gains distributions. These distributions occur when mutual funds sell stocks for a profit, or a gain. The capital gains taxes on those investment gains must be paid by taxable investors in the fund. Typically, funds “distribute” those gains to investors in December, which may increase the total amount of gains you take for the year unexpectedly.

If you are receiving capital gains distributiojns regularly, it may be worth considering using ETFs instead of mutual funds, especially if the mutual fund is underperforming. In that case, you’re paying the taxes but not getting the results! In an ETF, you only pay capital gains taxes on your actual realized gains. This is one of the main reasons why ETFs are more “tax efficient” than mutual funds. The proliferation of ETFs mean that you can probably come close to replicating your existing mutual fund strategy with better tax outcome and perhaps a lower cost by using an ETF instead.

[Brian Seay, CFA @capitalsteward]

Year End Planning Tips: Take advantage of HSAs…the only “triple tax advantaged” account that exists.

Health Savings Accounts are not only a way to save for medical expenses but also a strategic tool for tax savings. Contributions to HSAs are tax-deductible, and the money grows tax-free. When used for qualified medical expenses, withdrawals are also tax-free. That’s right, taxes are never paid on HSA contributions that are used for healthcare expenses.

For 2025, the contribution limit is $4,300 for individuals and $8,550 for families, with an additional $1,000 catch-up contribution for those 55 and older. That’s a lot of tax deferral power, especially for families with healthcare expenses. So don’t miss out on this one.

[Brian Seay, CFA @capitalsteward]

Year End Planning Tips: Consider ROTH Conversions…plural.

A Roth conversion involves moving funds from a traditional IRA or 401(k) to a Roth IRA, and paying taxes on the converted amount now to enjoy tax-free growth and withdrawals later. This can be particularly advantageous if you expect to be in a higher tax bracket in the future. Even if overall tax rates remain low, your income may go up and increase your tax bracket. Further, when you get into retirement, the required minimum distributions in your 80s and 90s can drive your taxable income more than you expect. This unnecessary increase in income is often the rationale for converting funds to a ROTH prior to or early in retirement.

It’s essential to do long-term planning and income forecasting with your financial planner and tax professional to get this right. Remember, ROTH conversions generally work best over multiple years to spread out the tax impact. So, think about this as a series of ROTH conversions, not a one-time event.

Any commentary is provided for general information and educational purposes only and should not be construed as specific investment, tax or legal advice. Instead, readers should make an independent assessment of the information and determine if any content mentioned  is appropriate for their personal situation. Past performance of market results is no assurance of future performance. This information has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed.

[Brian Seay, CFA @capitalsteward]

Year End Planning Tips: Remember Those Required Minimum Distributions (RMDs) On Your Retirement Accounts and Inherited IRAs

If you are 73 or older, ensure that you take your RMDs from retirement accounts before the end of the year. Proper planning can help manage the tax impact of these distributions by spreading them out over time. Additionally, you can give to charity directly from your IRA, so perhaps consider this as a way to meet your RMD requirement while minimizing your taxable income.

If you are in your 60s, consider ROTH conversions to help mitigate the tax impact of RMDs that will occur later in your life.

If you own an inherited IRA, make sure you review the distribution rules with your tax and planning professionals. If you don’t meet certain eligibility requirements, you may need to distribute all of the assets in that Inherited IRA over 10 years, regardless of your age, so don’t forget to review your distribution requirements with your tax advisor.

[Brian Seay, CFA @capitalsteward]

One of the most powerful tools for reducing taxable income is contributing to retirement accounts. Remember, retirement account contributions are generally tax deductible. For 2025, the employee contribution limits for 401(k) plans have increased. The limit for those under 50 is $23,500, and for those 50 and older, the catch-up contribution allows for an additional $7,500.

Remember, that is only your contribution, your employer’s contributions can go beyond your employee contribution. A total of $70,000 can be put into retirement accounts on your behalf. The most common form of additional contribution is employer matching contributions. But, if you have a side gig or own a business, you might be able to contribute to a retirement plan as an employer. That potentially means additional deductions for your business and personal taxes. So don’t forget to think about all of your income and the different ways you can contribute to retirement plans as both the employee AND the employer.

https://t.co/MHNS08pqSR

[Brian Seay, CFA @capitalsteward]

10/31/2025 – Market Perspective: Better Exterminators to Eliminate the Cockroaches.

Jamie Dimon was quoted recently saying that “when you see one cockroach, there are probably more” as a reference to the private debt market. His comments were made on the heels of bankruptcy announcements from companies like Broadband Telecom, Bridgevoice, and Tricolor over the past few weeks. These firms have a couple of things in common. First, they are all backed by private credit funds. Second, the professional investors involved have all claimed “fraud” as the primary reason for the firm’s failures. As if fraud eliminates the culpability of investors.

My view is that job one of an investment manager is to avoid fraud. It should be obvious, do your diligence, and don’t put your client’s hard-earned money into companies that may not be on the up and up. There are a lot of investment opportunities that are not fraudulent. The investment manager’s second role is to make sound decisions to deliver returns.

Let’s briefly discuss potential bad investment outcomes. Bad investment decisions happen. You may have a great understanding of where a company stands today, but you might be wrong about the prospects of a company. Perhaps the company's vison of the future doesn’t come true, and they end up earning little to no money. That’s simply a bad investment decision. No one bats a thousand, but good investment managers are right about their investment decisions more often than they are wrong.

However, a professional should never be conned by a fraudster. In the world of private investing, due diligence is paramount because there are no public audits and other safeguards to protect investors. Due diligence means verifying the claims made by the company. Does the company have the assets they claim to own? Is the money really in the bank? Do the customers agree on the nature of their relationship with the company? Good due diligence can verify all of these claims by talking with the banks, vendors, customers and counterparties involved.

In each of the cases I mentioned above, the companies received loans collateralized by assets they did not actually own. Ownership is not hard to verify; a few phone calls would probably have done the trick. Fraud may have indeed been committed, company executives may have lied about their assets. However, in my view, the professional investors involved in these situations do not get a pass because they were “defrauded.” They knew the risks. They knew how to do proper due diligence. They failed their clients. Suggesting that you were defrauded so somehow... "that’s not our fault".... is not an answer to bad investing. With the right process and resources, these situations were preventable. End of story.

Perhaps we need better investors, i.e. exterminators, so that the cockroaches don’t get in the door to begin with.

[Brian Seay, CFA @capitalsteward]

Minimize Taxes on Executive Comp.
Each year, executive compensation packages become more complex with many moving parts. If you receive shares, partnership units or something similar, here are a few strategies to help minimize the tax hit:

1)Negotiate Pay Structure Upfront. The best way to minimize your taxes is to have some control over your pay before you take the role. Once you receive income on a w-2, you are fighting an uphill battle. Ask for restricted stock instead of RSUs or options. You can pay the taxes upfront, and then pay lower capital gains rates on future appreciation. Ask for deferred compensation. This moves income into future years, often after retirement. Ask for Incentive Stock Options (ISOs). These receive preferential capital gains treatment.

2)Spread out Vesting. Spreading share vesting out over multiple years will keep your effective tax rate lower each year.

3)Consider buying assets with depreciation. Real estate and aircraft are two assets that may generate significant depreciation each year. Consider buying these types of assets and structuring the depreciation to align with high-income years.

4)Create a Donor Advised Fund or Private Foundations. You can make charitable contributions in years where your income is unusually high and then spread your gifts out over time.

5)Exercise Options Prudently. Generally, the spread between the current share price and your option strike is taxable income. Even if you desire to continue holding shares, consider exercising your options so that future appreciation is taxed at lower capital gains rates.

Any commentary is provided for general information and educational purposes only and should not be construed as specific investment, tax or legal advice. Instead, readers should make an independent assessment of the information and determine if any content mentioned is appropriate for their personal situation. Past performance of market results is no assurance of future performance. This information has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed.

[Brad Gerstner @altcap]

The answer to the wealth gap is to raise the floor by getting every child into the game of capitalism — not destroy the system that has made America the most prosperous nation on the planet. 🇺🇸🇺🇸@InvestAmerica24

[Brian Seay, CFA @capitalsteward]

Navigating Taxes After Death: Key Estate Planning Strategies for Everyone

When someone passes away, their loved ones face not only emotional challenges but also a complex landscape of tax obligations. Thoughtful planning can ensure your legacy is preserved and your beneficiaries aren’t burdened by unforeseen tax liabilities. Here’s an overview of the main taxes that may arise upon death—and what you can do about them.

Types of Taxes Paid When Someone Dies:

Estate Tax: This federal tax applies to estates exceeding a certain value (for 2025, $14 million per individual or $28 million for a couple). Most estates pay an effective tax rate of 40%, planning is crucial if you are one of the few that fall into the estate tax category.

Taxes on Retirement Accounts (401ks, IRAs, Pensions etc.): This is far more common than the estate tax. It’s easy to forget that the money inside a retirement account may not have been taxed previously. If that’s the case, taxes must be paid when the funds are withdrawn from the account.

Income Tax on the Estate: The estate itself may owe income tax on earnings after the date of death, such as interest, dividends, or capital gains.

Planning Considerations to Minimize Taxes

Estate Tax: Most people aren’t subject to the estate tax because their assets are below the thresholds. If you and your spouse do have more than $15 million, you should be actively planning for estate taxes. Remember, your assets will grow over time. The key to effective estate planning is time. That means starting to transfer assets out of your estate now (not in 10 years!) using trusts and other techniques, so talk to a professional!

Retirement Accounts: Without advance planning, your retirement accounts may simply be distributed to the beneficiaries on the accounts or as part of your estate. This is often the worst outcome! If all that money is distributed the year you die, it counts as income in for the year, meaning your effective tax rate will be 35% or more. Instead, plan to rollover your retirement assets to a spouse or set up inherited IRAs for other beneficiaries. This way the money can be disbursed over time and the tax burden will be minimized.

Capital Gains Tax: Beneficiaries typically receive a “step-up” in basis for inherited assets, meaning capital gains tax is minimized if assets are sold soon after inheritance. That means being thoughtful about realizing big gains as you age. It might pay to wait for your heirs to sell an asset.

Proactive estate planning is essential—not just to minimize taxes, but to ensure your wishes are honored and your loved ones are cared for.

[Brian Seay, CFA @capitalsteward]

@TeamYouTube really YouTube? We all know a human has not looked at this yet. Do better.

[Aaron Murray @aaronmurray11]

30,000 subscribers. Verified guests. ESPN analysts.

Our Mac & Murray CFB Show channel was terminated for “spam,” even though we only post original college football coverage.

@TeamYouTube — we just want a fair, human review. @YouTubeCreators

#CollegeFootball fans, please help us get this seen 🙏

[Brian Seay, CFA @capitalsteward]

Have questions or concerns after the big market gains over the summer? You’re not alone.
Usually after a big market gains, everyone is happy. But I hear a lot of concerns from folks this time around. Are we in a bubble?

I think the concern is warranted because we are living in a world with two different economies running simultaneously. Most of the U.S. economy is flatlining, yet markets are up. The 8% focused on A.I. is partying like it’s 1999 and driving all the headline growth you see reported. So what you feel is happening in the economy (unless you’re in the AI space) might not sync up with what’s reported on the news. In the outlook, I go into more detail on where I see the economy landing (still avoiding a true recession). I don’t believe we are in a bubble yet, but if the market continues to move higher without underlying earnings growth, we could be in bubble territory in 2026.

How we invest wisely based on what’s really happening is going to be very important over the next few months and into 2026.
Stocks have posted big gains for year, but the largest gains haven’t been in the U.S. tech space. Perhaps contrary to the news cycle, international stocks continue to lead the way as the U.S. dollar loses value relative to foreign currencies and gold. I talk more about the impact of the falling dollar in the outlook.

On the bond market, the fed began cutting rates in September and interest rates were lower across the board in the third quarter. That provided solid bond returns. Since my view continues to be that the U.S. will avoid a recession, exposure to corporate bonds and emerging market debt can provide excellent interest income north of 5.5% on an annualized basis. We also continue to view gold as a very useful hedge against both an unexpected recession and higher inflation. The market seems to share this view as well, driving the price of Gold up materially in Q3.

Notably, strong portfolio returns can be achieved outside of the stock market in the current environment. My view is that investors should take advantage of the ability to earn returns across a broad range of assets. This can drive both higher portfolio returns and reduce risk if stock do get into true bubble territory.

For more detail, watch or listen to the outlook wherever you listen to podcasts.

https://t.co/T7hquLqmY8