My number #1 rule when I get in/out of positions is to typically DCA a 3-5% range so I’m never all in or out too early
Gotta give yourself room for the volatility
Especially in crypto
Everything goes higher or lower than you anticipate always so why not just make a rule to allow for this
Claude, draw a red circle every time bitcoin touched the SMA200 from below after spending 4 months or more cleanly underneath, make no mistake.
Rooooh?
there's a thin line between delusional and convicted.
from the outside they look identical. both ignore consensus. both hold through pain. both sound completely crazy.
the difference only becomes clear in hindsight.
i've been on the wrong side of that line. skycoin. two years sitting in telegram rooms averaging down on a slow rug. that was delusion.
$SOL in 2023 was conviction. same stubbornness. different outcome.
what changed was that i stopped following founders on telegram and started doing my own work.
delusion borrows someone else's thesis. conviction is building your own.
I was obviously wrong on "sell all risk assets" as equities continue to pump
bearish stance on crypto hasn't changed though, this limp-dick short-squeeze equities-correlation pump doesn't phase me, although we ARE obviously and unequivocally closer to the bottom than top, both time and price wise
scenario where current compression being a bottoming formation at 60-80k is possible, would look for deviation below to get eaten up before bidding or simply price not being able to even breach 60s whilst sellers momentum continues to decrease over the summer
a slightly more likely scenario for me is still expansion under it towards final bottom [40-50k] where the bid is so obvious you have to be mentally ill to fail execution
either way, both scenarios will be very easy to execute on and if you've managed to survive last ~7 months the play here is crystal clear
I do think soon will be the time to strap in, similar to January 2023
future is always bright and full of opportunities
time doesn't move faster because we grow older
time moves faster because, as we grow older, we're accustomed to the experiences and our own daily routines
as kids, everything we experience is mostly new, so the time 'stretches'
if you were to travel to Antarctica now for a month, your time would be 'stretched', then a month later into the space/moon/Mars - your perception of time would stretch, then lets say you went to explore African wildlife for a month, or deep-sea diving/exploring - you get the point
time feels faster because we're used to the similar routines every day - if you were to override that with consistent novelty, time would feel as if you're a child again - because when you were a child, EVERYTHING was a novelty
I hope that helps people having an existential crisis - introduce novelty into your life, it will help
I was unprofitable for years with 1:3 risk to reward. Switch to 1:1 risk to reward and I’ve been profitable for the last 8 months and I’m finally passing prop challenges. These gurus lied to me for so long saying 1:3 was better.
I’ve watched countless people call for a super cycle this cycle, and every single one of them was wrong.
So here’s my bold prediction.
The real super cycle begins when precious metals roll over into a multi-year downtrend while Bitcoin, driven by absolute scarcity, breaks to new highs. That’s the true rotation. Boomers stay parked in gold, while a new generation of capital moves into a new asset class. Metals underperform, and Bitcoin absorbs the flow.
Look at gold in 1972 compared to where Bitcoin is heading into 2027. The setup is almost identical. It aligns perfectly with the idea that Bitcoin massively outperforms every asset class in the next cycle.
Gold’s market cap sits around $31.7 trillion. Bitcoin’s is roughly $1.83 trillion. Even at $200,000 per BTC, the market cap would only be about $5 trillion, still 6 times smaller than gold.
And as always, there will be reasons not to buy. This time it’s quantum computing/AI. Before that it was regulation, energy use, volatility. Fear always finds a new costume.
That fear will push people out of the market right before the real move begins.
I’ll be buying.
Because this is likely the last bear cycle where Bitcoin trades below $100,000.
Here’s my prediction. No filters. No hedging. No two sided bullshit. $BTC $XAU
There is a japanese legend that says,
"If you get on the wrong train, get off at the nearest station; the longer it takes you to get off, the more expensive the return trip will be."
And it's not only about trains.
2/ basically when we have a structure like this, if we get bullish pattern at the green line (A) we go long and our target is the red line (B) and not a new high. We don't know that. we don't want to trade based on hope or guessing.
we trade levels to levels, one zone to another.
9/ Now Let's see.
discipline, patience, memory, statistics.
work on them and you'll be huge.
In the end, I would say know your playground, imagine the different scenarios, know what you will play (based on your Opponent play), and know when to play and when to not.
Imagine in 5 years you are successful and achieved your financial goals. Do you think in an interview your answer on how you did it will be, "Yeah I just kept being average, gave up when it was hard, and barely tried". Work on your story, why do you deserve it over everyone else?
One piece of advice that I often revisit and has been extremely powerful in my life when sh*t hits the fan:
Keep Walking.
In one of Jocko's podcast episode, he likens a "bad" situation to an analogy regarding being lost in a thick forest.
You want to map out the terrain and search for favorable areas that may lead you to a creek which may flow into a river which can bring you back to civilization.
This is only possible if you start walking around to get your bearings.
Additionally, reframing obstacles as being opportunities is powerful. Sometimes you need to take two steps back to potentially move five steps forward. If this leads to self victimization and misery, the two steps back will often turn into more than that.
There's a reason why stagnant water breeds bacteria and has a stench to it.
Keep moving, even if it means you have to crawl.
The worst that will happen is you learn which direction is not feasible for you.
BREAKING: The $610 Billion AI Ponzi Scheme Just Collapsed
Last night at 4pm EST, something unprecedented happened. Nvidia stock rallied 5% on earnings, then crashed into negative territory within 18 hours. Wall Street algorithms detected what humans couldn’t: the numbers don’t add up.
Here’s what they found.
Nvidia reported $33.4 billion in unpaid bills, up 89% in one year. Customers who bought chips haven’t paid for them yet. The average wait time for payment stretched from 46 days to 53 days. That extra week represents $10.4 billion that may never arrive.
Meanwhile, Nvidia stockpiled $19.8 billion in unsold chips, up 32% in three months. But management claims demand is insane and supply is constrained. Both cannot be true. Either customers aren’t buying or they’re buying without cash.
The cash flow tells the real story. Nvidia generated $14.5 billion in actual cash but reported $19.3 billion in profit. The gap is $4.8 billion. Healthy chip companies like TSMC and AMD convert over 95% of profits to cash. Nvidia converts 75%. That’s distress level.
Here’s where it gets criminal.
Nvidia gave $2 billion to xAI. xAI borrowed $12.5 billion to buy Nvidia chips. Microsoft gave OpenAI $13 billion. OpenAI committed $50 billion to buy Microsoft cloud. Microsoft ordered $100 billion in Nvidia chips for that cloud. Oracle gave OpenAI $300 billion in cloud credits. OpenAI ordered Nvidia chips for Oracle data centers.
The same dollars circle through different companies and get counted as revenue multiple times. Nvidia books sales, but nobody actually pays. The bills age. The inventory piles up. The cash never comes.
AI company CEOs admitted it themselves last week. Airbnb’s CEO called it vibe revenue. OpenAI burns $9.3 billion per year but makes $3.7 billion. That’s a $5.6 billion annual loss. The $157 billion valuation requires $3.1 trillion in future profits that MIT research shows 95% of AI projects will never generate.
Peter Thiel sold $100 million in Nvidia on November 9. SoftBank dumped $5.8 billion on November 11. Michael Burry bought put options betting Nvidia crashes to $140 by March 2026.
Bitcoin, which tracks AI speculation, dropped from $126,000 in October to $89,567 today. That’s a 29% crash. AI startups hold $26.8 billion in Bitcoin as collateral for loans. When Nvidia falls another 40%, those loans default, forcing $23 billion in Bitcoin sales, crashing crypto to $52,000.
The timeline is now certain. February 2026, Nvidia reports fourth quarter and reveals how many bills aged past 60 days. March 2026, credit agencies downgrade. April 2026, the first restatement. The fraud that took 18 months to build unwinds in 90 days.
Fair value for Nvidia: $71 per share. Current price: $186. The math is simple.
This is the fastest moving financial fraud in history because algorithms detected it in real time. Human investors are 90 days behind.
Read the full data driven deep dive article here - https://t.co/sDEf5Mdrtc