Lucas Trading

Long book + one weekly long. I buy stuff I already understand. No certainty, no DMs. Positions disclosed.

[Lucas Trading @captaintrading8]

@laotefupan Could be.
I care more about who’s still spending than about one rebound.

[Lucas Trading @captaintrading8]

I’m less interested in today's AI headlines.

I’m watching who is still paying for compute.

Meta is pushing custom silicon.
CoreWeave is raising another $3B to expand.
AI cloud providers are still raising prices on scarce compute.
That doesn’t look like demand disappearing.
It looks like the AI buildout is getting more expensive, more customised, and more capital-intensive.

I’m still holding $NVDA and $MU .

The question for me isn’t “Is AI over?”

It’s who keeps getting paid as the spending mix changes.

#market #stock

[Lucas Trading @captaintrading8]

@TrendSpider Watching $META too.

AI spend is one thing. Seeing it actually show up in the business is another.

[Lucas Trading @captaintrading8]

@zerohedge They didn’t lose the war map. They lost the model that assumed $100 oil would force an exit.

[Lucas Trading @captaintrading8]

@KobeissiLetter hey don’t own 7% of Treasuries. They rent 7% with leverage. That’s the risk.

[Lucas Trading @captaintrading8]

@unusual_whales Not a new model. It’s GPT-6 plus a 230M-URL legal index. The data layer is the product.

[Lucas Trading @captaintrading8]

@XiaoQuanig Already in. Not adding at $219.Add only $213.90–$212.50.
Wrong on a close through $212.50. If it never dips, I keep the position. I don’t chase this print.

[Lucas Trading @captaintrading8]

Premarket note, scored after the close.
Didn’t buy the gap. Didn’t have to.

$NVDA opened at $218.38, low $217.15, never saw $213.90. Closed at $219.34.
$MU closed at $977.50. No dip to $926.
$TSLA closed at $366.20.

SOX +3.1%. Nasdaq +1.7%. Dow +0.6%.
Same split. Chips still had the bid.

Add levels didn’t print. That’s fine. I’m not chasing $219 either.

Still in $NVDA $MU $TSLA. Wrong remains a close back through $212.50.

Next session I care if $NVDA holds today’s $218.38 open.

[Lucas Trading @captaintrading8]

Not buying the gap.
Already in $NVDA $MU $TSLA .
Why I’m still holding: the hike hit the Dow. It did not hit the chip bid.
Premarket, that’s still true: $NVDA ~$217, $MU ~$947.
Where I buy more, not where I chase:
$NVDA only on a dip toward $213.90–$212.50.
$MU only toward $926–$918.
Wrong if $NVDA loses $212.50 on a closing basis.
Wrong if $MU loses Wednesday’s $917.64.
This is the long book. Not a 9:30 market order.

#stock #market #trading

[Lucas Trading @captaintrading8]

@MDCTrades305 366.20. Handle held.363.22 was the test. It didn’t give it back.

[Lucas Trading @captaintrading8]

Not buying the gap.
Already in $NVDA $MU $TSLA .
Why I’m still holding: the hike hit the Dow. It did not hit the chip bid.
Premarket, that’s still true: $NVDA ~$217, $MU ~$947.
Where I buy more, not where I chase:
$NVDA only on a dip toward $213.90–$212.50.
$MU only toward $926–$918.
Wrong if $NVDA loses $212.50 on a closing basis.
Wrong if $MU loses Wednesday’s $917.64.
This is the long book. Not a 9:30 market order.

#stock #market #trading

[Lucas Trading @captaintrading8]

@unusual_whales Everyone wants AI. Nobody wants the data center next door.

[Lucas Trading @captaintrading8]

@TheStreet Everyone wants to trade the volatility.

I’m more interested in whether the underlying earnings thesis is changing.

So far, I don’t see it.

That’s why “own it, don’t trade it” makes more sense to me for $NVDA .

[Lucas Trading @captaintrading8]

@babyfolio Narratives are usually late.

The chart moves first, then everyone suddenly finds a reason.

That's why I care more about whether the thesis changed than whether the stock moved.

[Lucas Trading @captaintrading8]

Would you focus more on Treasury yields or forward earnings revisions from here?

[Lucas Trading @captaintrading8]

The setup still looks bullish to me.

The Fed just raised rates.

The 10Y pushed above 5%.

And semiconductors still held up.

That’s important.

If higher yields were enough to break the AI trade, I’d expect $NVDA , $MU and $AVGO to be getting hit much harder.

Instead, the market is still rewarding earnings growth.

My read:

AI isn't being priced on rates alone anymore.

It's being priced on whether earnings can keep outrunning the macro pressure.

That's the part I'm bullish on.

I could be wrong.

But I’d need to see AI earnings expectations actually roll over before I turn bearish.

[Lucas Trading @captaintrading8]

@MarcosMillaYT @stock_analysisx $MU is an interesting one here.

The big question for me isn't just earnings growth anymore.

It's whether the market starts believing this memory cycle is structurally different from the last one.

That's where the valuation story gets interesting.

[Lucas Trading @captaintrading8]

@WatcherGuru One more hike while the market is still pricing in cuts. Q4 could get interesting. 👀

[Lucas Trading @captaintrading8]

@KobeissiLetter The gap between 1% and 4% is pretty wild. Curious how the market prices that going into Q4.

[Lucas Trading @captaintrading8]

@laotefupan Haha, imagine if every call from Trump moved NVDA. That would be a whole new trading strategy. 😂

[Lucas Trading @captaintrading8]

Nasdaq finished flat on a hawkish Fed day. That’s nothing.
$NVDA still green. Dow ate 631. Split tape. Long from the open stays.
#stock #market #trading