Carlos Casanova

Senior Asia Economist @UBP_Group, emerging markets, all things #China. Views are my own.

[Finbarr Bermingham @fbermingham]

An upside down world, in two images:

For Trump, the EU is nastier than China.

For the EU, Trump is worse than China

[Carlos Casanova @carcasall]

About friggin' time! Sometimes I wonder if they will be able to seize the strategic window of opportunity. Story via @fbermingham: https://t.co/ztm4VKqE09

[Carlos Casanova @carcasall]

The issue of additional taxes is inevitable and might dampen sentiment in the short term. We anticipate discussions on progressive income taxes, similar to Singapore, and the possibility of introducing a GST.

[Carlos Casanova @carcasall]

Hong Kong could be facing a larger deficit and slower growth. Despite a constitutional obligation to maintain a surplus under the Basic Law, this may mark the largest deficit and longest period of deficits since SARS.

[Carlos Casanova @carcasall]

With 20% of government revenues coming from land premiums, the low volume of real estate transactions is likely to contribute significantly to the deficit in 2024. Some macroprudential easing to spur activity is needed, but any upside for developer stocks will only be temporary.

[Carlos Casanova @carcasall]

PBOC expected to delay RRR cut until Q1-25. This is to preserve some policy room ahead of expected tariffs. "Substantial action will be necessary to effectively stimulate demand in 2025... we expect the bank to expand its balance sheet significantly."
https://t.co/urHBJCoVzB

[Carlos Casanova @carcasall]

Key proposals include:

✅ Issuing bonds to fund long-term investments.
✅ Taxing non-local digital service providers.
✅ Selling smaller land parcels to stimulate investment.
✅ Further housing sector easing to boost volumes.

https://t.co/M2rgyL9Tx9

[Carlos Casanova @carcasall]

Some thoughts on China's fiscal stuimulus measures via @straits_times: https://t.co/NJetezQylV

[Carlos Casanova @carcasall]

I thoroughly enjoyed my conversation with Sri Jegarajah and Martin Soong regarding the impact of recent policy measures from Beijing and the potential effects of a second Trump administration on China's outlook.
https://t.co/ka5JjvsHga

[Carlos Casanova @carcasall]

Ueda may have jumped the gun on policy normalization, contributing to an LDP defeat that could postpone future rate hikes. This led to yen weakness, which in turn supported Japanese equities. What will global investors do?

[Carlos Casanova @carcasall]

Will China’s Rally Fizzle Out? My views via @finews_asia https://t.co/J4n8UBw205

[Carlos Casanova @carcasall]

Taking stock of #China's policy #stimulus and expectations for upcoming Q3 #GDP data with @Bloomberg radio: https://t.co/irstGA4AlT

[Carlos Casanova @carcasall]

Thanks to @business for having me on the show to discuss recent fiscal #stimulus measures in #China.

These measures, around 1.5% of #GDP, signify a continuation of China's reflation efforts rather than a "whatever it takes" moment.

https://t.co/SIc1rAYN9o

[Carlos Casanova @carcasall]

Was fortunate to join @SquawkCNBC for a discussion on US-China trade dynamics ahead of the crucial Presidential debate this week.

Here are key insights from our conversation:

https://t.co/E2X79p5gxJ

[Carlos Casanova @carcasall]

It was a privilege to join such a distinguished group of panelists at the Swiss Chamber's Mid-Year Economic Outlook once again.

Engaging with such esteemed cohort of Chief Economists and Strategists was both inspiring and enlightening.

[Carlos Casanova @carcasall]

China exports unexpectedly rose to 8.7% Y/Y in August. Most of the upside came on the back of vehicle exports to Europe, which constitutes front-loading ahead of EV tariffs. Steel rebar, aluminum and chemical fertilizer also increased. Exports to the U.S. slowed. NOT sustainable.

[Carlos Casanova @carcasall]

It was a pleasure to join Shery Ahn and Haidi Stroud-Watts to discuss the Asia macro week ahead.

We covered topics such as the US core PCE data, the potential impact of upcoming jobs data on Asia, and China's PMI shortfall.

Watch the discussion here:
https://t.co/mxtmluhQI8