Cardboard Terminal

The data terminal for Pokémon cards. Live market stats, deals, trends & charting all powered by verified sales data.

[Cardboard Terminal @CardBoardTerm]

Ever struggle to keep up with the constantly changing Pokémon TCG narratives?

That’s why we built Socials: a real-time view of what the hobby is talking about:

• Which Pokémon are spiking vs. baseline
• Why they’re trending
• Which posts are driving the move
• The most talked-about Pokémon across the hobby

Market data tells you what moved.

Socials tells you why.

[ProfPokeQuant @ProfPokeQuant]

I just found one Pokémon pack with mathematically better returns than a lottery ticket.

Most Pokémon packs return less than $0.50 per dollar spent on average.

• Scarlet and Violet Base: $0.48
• Prismatic Evolutions: $0.29
• Paldean Fates: $0.22

But one set is different: Fates Collide.

Today, a pack costs about $44.

Its contents are worth $36.47 on average if you sell or grade each hit based on whichever has the higher expected value.

That’s an 83% expected return.

Still a losing bet.

But better than a typical lottery ticket.

So where does all that EV come from?

Take Umbreon EX Full Art #119.

It’s worth about $141 raw, but around $4,450 in a PSA 10.

Obviously, I’m not assuming every copy gets a 10.

According to PSA population data, 13.5% of graded copies actually gem.

I use this data to weight every possible outcome:

• PSA 10: 13.5% at ~$4,450
• PSA 9: 32.8% at ~$430
• PSA 8: 23.6% at ~$155
• and so on

That gives Umbreon a graded EV of about $819.

Subtract an $80 grading fee and the calculated value of pulling one is about $739.

But you only pull it around 1 in 153 packs.

So Umbreon alone contributes about $4.83 of EV to every Fates Collide pack.

I repeat that process for every hit using measured pull rates, real PSA grade distributions, and recent sale prices.

The final math:

Pack price: $43.95
Grade optimally: $36.47 EV
Expected return: 83.0%

So no, opening Fates Collide is not profitable.

But the fact that the expected return is better than a typical lottery ticket is kind of awesome.

Keep an eye out for my full analysis on all pack EVs later this week!

All the data + methodology is here: https://t.co/008YrATxHX

[ProfPokeQuant @ProfPokeQuant]

Before you rip another Pokémon pack, I've done the math.

The Pack Expected Value (EV) tool I built calculates the expected value of every modern set using:

• Measured pull rates
• Real PSA gem rates
• Recent PSA + raw sales
• Bulk/non-hit value
• Your actual grading fee

And it doesn’t just give you one EV.

For every single hit, it tells you the mathematically optimal move: Grade or Sell Raw.

Yes, every single pack has a negative EV... But that is normal! Some packs have better returns than others.

Some current numbers:

• Pokémon 151: $16.24 optimal EV on a $29.69 pack
• Pitch Black: $5.43 EV on a $5.64 pack → 96% expected return

For 151 specifically:

• Sell everything raw: $12.43
• Grade every hit: $13.36
• Optimize each card individually: $16.24

So now, before you rip, you can know what to expect on average and exactly what the math says to do with every hit you pull.

I thought this could be important for everyone. So I've made this completely free on Cardboard Terminal:
https://t.co/6nm4v6NdPY

[GotdemCards @GotdemCards]

Been using Cardboard Terminal lately and it's printing money spots graded slabs under comps on live eBay auctions in real timegrabbed a few steals and flipped for solid profits already check it out if you're in the hobby
👇 https://t.co/Z1oRW89HeS

[ProfPokeQuant @ProfPokeQuant]

This is one of the coolest Pokémon pricing patterns I’ve seen in a while.

Same card. Same grader. Completely different gem behavior.

For Pokémon Center promos, the harder the stamped version is to gem relative to the regular card, the larger the price premium tends to be.

A few examples:

• N’s Zekrom: 2.6x harder to gem with PC stamp, 10.1x price
• Charcadet: 4.1x harder to gem with PC stamp, 8.5x price
• Magneton: actually easier to gem with PC stamp, but still trades at 2x

That suggests something pretty clean:
The stamp creates the floor. Gem scarcity drives the upside.

This is why looking at price alone misses half the story.

[ProfPokeQuant @ProfPokeQuant]

@shotguncaio The Rayquaza hype was already priced into the market since April. But maybe with such sick art I hope we see another Ray surge!

Mega EX (my fav) is already starting to show signs of a comback!

[Cardboard Terminal @CardBoardTerm]

Check out this feature and more at https://t.co/sblcDYmpRf! First 7 days are on us 🙂

[Cardboard Terminal @CardBoardTerm]

Ever struggle to keep up with the constantly changing Pokémon TCG narratives?

That’s why we built Socials: a real-time view of what the hobby is talking about:

• Which Pokémon are spiking vs. baseline
• Why they’re trending
• Which posts are driving the move
• The most talked-about Pokémon across the hobby

Market data tells you what moved.

Socials tells you why.

[ProfPokeQuant @ProfPokeQuant]

The crazy part isn’t that Night costs $126 more.

It’s that the Umbreon tax is only 31%.

Across matched Espeon/Umbreon products, Umbreon has historically commanded a 1.5x–4.7x premium.

At $531 vs $405, this is the cheapest Umbreon premium in our data.

By historical standards, Night actually looks cheap.

[Cardboard Terminal @CardBoardTerm]

Never let the market leave you behind. Check out https://t.co/3nZOeqx9K9 today for a 7 day free trial

[GotdemCards @GotdemCards]

Stop manually refreshing eBay and guessing if you're getting a good deal. 🛑📉

@CardboardTerminal tracks live graded Pokémon auctions in real time, slapping exact market value estimates right next to current bids so steals pop out instantly. 💎✨

People are literally using this to lock in $200-$700+ flips every single day. Stop leaving money on the table and grab your 7-DAY FREE TRIAL to see the live feed yourself:

👉 https://t.co/qNlVeLThWZ

#ad

[ProfPokeQuant @ProfPokeQuant]

Everyone is talking about Delta Reign today.

But the Rayquaza trade started months ago.

When rumors of a Rayquaza-led set picked up in April, several PSA 10 Rayquazas ripped relative to the broader Pokémon market.

Most of that first wave has cooled, but Mega Rayquaza EX #98 is already waking back up, now +11% vs. the market.

And with artwork like this officially out in the wild, I wouldn’t be surprised if Rayquaza gets another leg up.

The first surge may not have been the last.

[ProfPokeQuant @ProfPokeQuant]

@Collect Not a bad investment either! Data shows that the Rowlet market is BOOMING

[ProfPokeQuant @ProfPokeQuant]

@thepropgallery Nice - comparing the PSA 6 1st edition trio, its a interesting race! Of course the Zard is in the lead, but cooling off lately. Venusaur might take the lead?

[ProfPokeQuant @ProfPokeQuant]

@PSAcard Going by order of appearance is clean. Going by PSA price action gets wild.

Over the last 10 months, all three Pokemon starter regions went triple digits, but on different clocks: Johto first, Galar next, then Unova flipped from flat to +150% and took the lead.

[ProfPokeQuant @ProfPokeQuant]

The Pokémon market is up. Vintage is leaving it in the dust.

Since Feb 2025, after stripping out the market’s overall move:

• Triumphant: +210%
• Undaunted: +106%
• Expedition: +74%
• Skyridge: +51%

This isn’t a hobby-wide pump. Money is rotating into older sets.

[Cardboard Terminal @CardBoardTerm]

One tiny stamp on a Pokemon card. Up to 10x the price.

We compared every Pokemon Center stamped ETB promo against the regular version of the same card. Same card, same grade, PSA 10, verified sales since Feb:

N's Zekrom: $426 regular vs $4,321 stamped (10.1x)
Pikachu, Paldea Evolved: $200 vs $1,877 (9.4x)
Snorlax, 151: $244 vs $1,739 (7.1x)
Eevee, Prismatic Evolutions: $149 vs $676 (4.5x)

The newest stamps carry the smallest multiples (Magneton 2x, Mimikyu 3x). The premium fattens as supply ages out.

The stamp is the asset.

[Cardboard Terminal @CardBoardTerm]

for scale on 1 in 20,000: the entire modern chase economy was built on cards far easier to pull than that. the four SWSH alt art grails sit between $1,400 and $4,200 in PSA 10 and climbed another 40% to 77% in the last 12 months, on thousands of verified sales each. moonbreon alone printed 1,623 PSA 10 sales in 13 months and still rose 44%. a print rate two orders of magnitude tighter than these is uncharted territory for the hobby.

[Cardboard Terminal @CardBoardTerm]

context on why a quarter-million-dollar card can get pulled twice in one summer and still stun people: the entire Shining family has been repricing. every liquid graded Shining card is up 78% to 183% in the last 12 months. Shining Charizard 1st Edition went $23,000 to $51,420 in PSA 10, Shining Kabutops nearly tripled, and even the 2018 promo Shining Lugia doubled to $2,281. the word Shining on a Pokemon card is its own market right now.

[Cardboard Terminal @CardBoardTerm]

the market agrees with you. the LV.X chase cards have more than doubled in the last 12 months: Gengar LV.X went $1,100 to $2,560 and Charizard G LV.X $870 to $2,037 in PSA 9. even their 2021 Celebrations reprints are up 27% to 45%. the Diamond & Pearl era sat overlooked for a decade and is now sitting in the hottest era band in graded Pokemon.

[Cardboard Terminal @CardBoardTerm]

we pulled the receipts on the whole card family. same card, same grade number, different slab: across every Mega Charizard X ex variant, a PSA 10 trades at 1.7x to 3.2x the CGC 10, on 13,000+ verified sales in 90 days. and that is just the mid-pyramid. push the tier to a pop-14 Black Label and the premium goes vertical, exactly like your $183 vs $10,000. at the top, the label is the asset.