Kuba

I speak my mind

[Kuba @carkujon]

@johnloeber One UX change from 2019 did this https://t.co/nBAiM0zMst. since then, drivers have become picky.

[Javier Blas @JavierBlas]

Why I call the below the most important story in markets / geopolitics?

1) without China importing far less, oil would be way, way above $100

2) Fed would be forced to hike rates, crashing Wall Street

3) President Trump would be against the clock in negotiations with Iran

[Javier Blas @JavierBlas]

CHART OF THE DAY: Perhaps the most important story in global markets / geopolitics right now.

China's oil imports plunged to ~6.6m b/d in May, according to @Vortexa data, down ~38% vs 2025 average (or ~4m b/d).

I wrote this @Opinion column in early May: https://t.co/XK71uh81m1

[Emirates @emirates]

Our first Emirati female Captains have joined the ranks!

[Kuba @carkujon]

@SukhSidhuDXB where's $500 for padel?

[Jesús Enrique Rosas @Knesix]

Imagine, if you will, the Middle East as a neighborhood.

On one side of the street, you’ve got the United Arab Emirates. The UAE is that guy who used to live in a tent but won the literal geological lottery and decided, instead of buying a fleet of gold-plated jet skis and retiring, he was going to build a cyberpunk forest in the middle of a literal furnace.

The UAE is what happens when a country looks at a desolate, 120-degree sand dune and says, “You know what this needs? A climate-controlled indoor ski resort and a branch of the Louvre.”

They’ve basically speed-run three hundred years of Western development in about forty. They’ve got high-speed rail, Mars probes, and a vibe that says, "We’ve decided that having a functioning economy is more fun than shouting at clouds."

Then, you’ve got Iran.

Iran is the neighbor who lives in a house where the plumbing hasn’t worked since 1979, but they refuse to call a plumber because they’re convinced the plumber is a CIA plant sent to steal their spiritual purity.

Iran is governed by a group of guys whose primary policy platform is "Being Extremely Grumpy About Everything." They’ve spent forty years trying to convince the world that the pinnacle of human achievement is a very specific type of frown and a centrifuge that occasionally makes scary noises.

Iran isn't hitting the UAE because they’re neighbors. They’re hitting them because the UAE is a walking, talking existential crisis for the Ayatollah.

See, the Islamic Republic’s entire brand is built on a single, desperate lie: “You can either be a good Muslim, or you can have nice things. You can’t have both because the nice things are poisoned by the Great Satan.”

Then the UAE shows up, sipping an iced latte, signing the Abraham Accords with Israel, and partnering with Washington. They’re proof that you can keep the faith, keep the culture, and still participate in the "Western Civilizational Package" without the universe exploding.

To Tehran, the UAE is a giant, neon-lit middle finger. Every time a new tech startup opens in Dubai, an Angel gets its wings and a Mullah loses his mind.

Iran looks at the UAE and sees a glitch in the Matrix. It’s an extension of the Western order, that place where "openness" isn't a dirty word, and "integration" isn't a conspiracy.

Because if an Arab Muslim state can be successful, modern, and friendly with the West, then the last forty years of Iranian "revolutionary" suffering have been a pointless, self-inflicted wound.

And nothing stings more than watching your neighbor throw a block party with the people you’ve spent your whole life telling everyone are "monsters."

Iran isn't just fighting a war over borders or oil. They’re fighting a war against the terrifying possibility that people actually like air conditioning and international trade more than they like miserable, state-mandated martyrdom.

The UAE is the living, breathing proof that Iran’s founding ideology is just a very expensive, very depressing hobby.

So yeah, Tehran strikes. Because when you’ve built your entire identity on being the "Alternative to the West," nothing is more dangerous than the guy next door who just figured out how to be the best version of it.

[Kuba @carkujon]

@Alyunan00 @Sajwani legend has it they are still flashing 🤣

[Kuba @carkujon]

@SLAMDUNKLIBS @Festivus96 @Osint613 https://t.co/LxX8EG8who

"6 dark outbound transits were carrying 10.7mn barrels of Iranian crude (April 13 - April 21), as of April 22, 3 have reportedly been interdicted by the US"

[جهاز أمن الدولة @ssd_gov_ae]

تفكيك #تنظيم_إرهابي خطط لزعزعة #أمن_الدولة والإضرار بالوحدة الوطنية والسلم

[Kuba @carkujon]

@zahidk @DXB yeah, all normal. the only difference is that they don't let people without a valid ticket into the terminal. and you can't enter via arrivals. arrivals much busier than departures from my experience last week.

[Kuba @carkujon]

@blast_town @Osint613 @Rory_Johnston @vortexa data https://t.co/XOUlGgkR5R

[Kuba @carkujon]

@mercoglianos @russp every empty VLCC+ heading to the US now from @Vortexa. also a look at historical counts (ballast vs. laden) in the second screenshot.

[Kuba @carkujon]

@mercoglianos @russp every empty VLCC+ heading to the US now from @Vortexa. also a look at historical counts (ballast vs. laden) in the second screenshot.

[Kuba @carkujon]

building on the original story:
#1 all of the very big tankers heading empty to the US with scrubbers installed - you can fuel them up for cheap, and they still won't pollute that much sulphur
#2 same, but with no scrubbers - you either have to pay up for low sulphur fuel, or they are going to pollute more

[Kuba @carkujon]

@MikeUmbro @grok @Rory_Johnston @staunovo @Vortexa As to the fuel they burn: both CPP and DPP burn Fuel Oil. It can either be high in sulphur or low in sulphur. If it's high, some people add an exhaust scrubber to make it emit less sulphur, and to comply with IMO 2020.

[Rory Johnston @Rory_Johnston]

Since folks seem to love tanker maps, here's ALL the tankers, courtesy of @Vortexa.

Blue are dirty tankers (crude, fuel oil, etc.), white are clean product tankers (gasoline, diesel, etc.) and orange are gas carriers (LNG, LPG, etc.)

[Kuba @carkujon]

@IdWalkThat @Knesix this is @Vortexa . the map is filtered down to empty VLLC+ heading to US. here's a fresh screenshot:

[Kuba @carkujon]

@Rory_Johnston @Vortexa no problemo, happy to send more screenshots if you want! good story anyway!

[Kuba @carkujon]

@KirkLubimov source is @Vortexa btw for those interested