Carm’s Sports Betting Locks

Data-backed NFL, MLB, & NBA Props | Home of the NRFI/YRFI Algorithm (45-31 +10.03 units) | MLB POTD’s 12-8 +1.42 units

[Carm’s Sports Betting Locks @carmslocks]

MLB BULL RUN 🐂📈

- 12-4 for +7.17u L7 days
- 8-1 L9 1st inning bets +6.83u
- 4 straight plus-money YRFI’s cashed

Last Friday we went 4-0, dare we sweep again? 👀🧹

1️⃣ C. Holmes & C. Schlittler u4.5 ER (-135 DK)
2️⃣ MIL @ MIN NRFI (-115 BetMGM)
3️⃣ CHC @ CWS YRFI (+105 Bet365)

[Carm’s Sports Betting Locks @carmslocks]

6/13/26 World Cup Bet #1

🇨🇭 Switzerland to lead after 30 minutes (+105 FanDuel)

WC Record: 4-0 +4.22 units

- Switzerland -1.5 is -170, Switzerland 1H ML is -180, so this is my favorite line without a TON of juice. To be honest though, the juice is justified, Switzerland are great defensively allowing just 2 goals in 6 WC qualifier games. Oh yeah, and Qatar STINKS. This Qatar team hasn't scored a goal since NOVEMBER of 2025 💀 yet Qatar to be shutout is still -185 so we can't play that either. Over their last 13 matches, Switzerland have lead thru 30 minutes in 8/13 matches. Of those five misses, one was to Germany, and two more were after they were already guaranteed to qualify after winning 3/3 to start qualification. Against teams comparatively bad to Qatar (Jordan, Kosovo 2x, Luxembourg), this hit in 3/4. Qatar also trailed after 30 minutes in 2/3 games last World Cup.

[Carm’s Sports Betting Locks @carmslocks]

MULTI-SPORT MEGA SWEEP 🧹🧹

HOU @ KC YRFI (-120) ✅
TB @ LAA YRFI (-110) ✅
CHC @ SF NRFI (-109) ✅
USA 3-way ML (+105) ✅
A. Painter o2.5 ER (-124) ☑️

We go 4-0 on the night, and would’ve been 5-0 had Painter not voided despite giving up 5 ER. Algorithm, pitcher props, & WC plays dropping tn/tmr morning, let’s follow this up strong 💪

[Carm’s Sports Betting Locks @carmslocks]

@kendallsday Hit in both today, could be a cheat code 👀

[Carm’s Sports Betting Locks @carmslocks]

BEST YRFI OF ALL TIME???

HOU @ KC YRFI (-120) ✅

Holy fuck 😭😭😭 Doesn’t get better than that boys, 2 more to go let’s sweep the board🔻🔻

2️⃣ TB @ LAA YRFI (-110)
3️⃣ CHC @ SF NRFI (-109)

[Carm’s Sports Betting Locks @carmslocks]

6/12/26 NRFI/YRFI Algorithm

60%+ NRFI record: 32-32 -5.31u
60%+ YRFI record: 27-17 +9.05u

Beautiful day for some baseball, we’ve got a few plays lined up for today:

1️⃣ HOU @ KC YRFI (-120 Bet365)
2️⃣ TB @ LAA YRFI (-110 Fanatics/CZR)
3️⃣ CHC @ SF NRFI (-109 Novig)

[Carm’s Sports Betting Locks @carmslocks]

Self-proclaimed YRFI KING 👑

HOU @ KC YRFI (-120) ✅
TB @ LAA YRFI (-110) ✅

What a night. We sweep our YRFI’s and we’re 3-0 overall tn (should be 4-0 but Painter voided). One last play, let’s hope our NRFI can follow suit🔻

3️⃣ CHC @ SF NRFI (-109)

[Carm’s Sports Betting Locks @carmslocks]

6/12/26 NRFI/YRFI Algorithm

60%+ NRFI record: 32-32 -5.31u
60%+ YRFI record: 27-17 +9.05u

Beautiful day for some baseball, we’ve got a few plays lined up for today:

1️⃣ HOU @ KC YRFI (-120 Bet365)
2️⃣ TB @ LAA YRFI (-110 Fanatics/CZR)
3️⃣ CHC @ SF NRFI (-109 Novig)

[Carm’s Sports Betting Locks @carmslocks]

LITERALLY CAN’T LOSE 🔥🔥

USA 3-way ML (+105) ✅

Up 3-0 at half, -20000 to win, ts is so over. FOUR WC games tomorrow, I’ll drop my picks for each game as we try to stay undefeated 👀👀

[Carm’s Sports Betting Locks @carmslocks]

I’m putting $20 on ALL 72 group stage games this World Cup. FanDuel is giving away $5 in Bonus Bets for EACH goal scored which is too good not to take advantage of.

I just cashed in the 1st half to improve to 3-0 to start the tournament. Here’s my play tonight:

🇺🇸 USA 3-way ML (+105)

Drop a 💙 if you’d like to see more of these 🤝

[Carm’s Sports Betting Locks @carmslocks]

@mulvi1227 I also played on Novig and they haven’t voided yet so fingers crossed they’ll pay out

[Carm’s Sports Betting Locks @carmslocks]

Great read but the bet voids 🙃

A. Painter o2.5 ER (-124) ☑️

Philly put an opener ahead of Painter, so the bet voids on most books including DK. Regardless, Painter gave up 5 runs and it was a quality read, we deserved to be paid out 🙄

[Carm’s Sports Betting Locks @carmslocks]

6/12/26 MLB Play of the Day

A. Painter o2.5 ER (-124 DraftKings)

- Andrew Painter has looked rough in his debut season going over this line in 4/5 road starts with a 6.65 ERA and it's not gonna get any easier against a red hot Brewers offense. Painter has been getting shelled this year, with the 3rd-highest BAA (.312) amongst 115 starters with 50+ IP, and the 6th-highest BABIP (.341). In the four starts he's gone UNDER this line (3/4 were at home), his opponents ranked 21st, 23rd, 26th, & 29th in BA vs. RHP. Milwaukee ranks 3rd in average vs. RHP including FIRST in BABIP at .313 and their numbers have been even better over the last month or so. Painter's 4-seamer, sinker, and slider are all getting hit for .318 or better, and Milwaukee ranks 6th in BA & 2nd in BABIP vs. righties throwing those pitches. Milwaukee has scored 3+ runs in 21/27 games when they hit a starting RHP 5+ times, and Painter averages 7.2 HA in five road starts with a .356 BA & .383 BABIP.

[Carm’s Sports Betting Locks @carmslocks]

6/12/26 NRFI/YRFI Algorithm

60%+ NRFI record: 32-32 -5.31u
60%+ YRFI record: 27-17 +9.05u

Beautiful day for some baseball, we’ve got a few plays lined up for today:

1️⃣ HOU @ KC YRFI (-120 Bet365)
2️⃣ TB @ LAA YRFI (-110 Fanatics/CZR)
3️⃣ CHC @ SF NRFI (-109 Novig)

[Carm’s Sports Betting Locks @carmslocks]

I’m putting $20 on ALL 72 group stage games this World Cup. FanDuel is giving away $5 in Bonus Bets for EACH goal scored which is too good not to take advantage of.

I just cashed in the 1st half to improve to 3-0 to start the tournament. Here’s my play tonight:

🇺🇸 USA 3-way ML (+105)

Drop a 💙 if you’d like to see more of these 🤝

[Carm’s Sports Betting Locks @carmslocks]

@FootbaIlFan123 I think they settle the day after, I got the $25 from yesterday’s games this morning

[Carm’s Sports Betting Locks @carmslocks]

I’m putting $20 on ALL 72 group stage games this World Cup. FanDuel is giving away $5 in Bonus Bets for EACH goal scored which is too good not to take advantage of.

I just cashed in the 1st half to improve to 3-0 to start the tournament. Here’s my play tonight:

🇺🇸 USA 3-way ML (+105)

Drop a 💙 if you’d like to see more of these 🤝

[Carm’s Sports Betting Locks @carmslocks]

6/12/26 MLB Play of the Day

A. Painter o2.5 ER (-124 DraftKings)

- Andrew Painter has looked rough in his debut season going over this line in 4/5 road starts with a 6.65 ERA and it's not gonna get any easier against a red hot Brewers offense. Painter has been getting shelled this year, with the 3rd-highest BAA (.312) amongst 115 starters with 50+ IP, and the 6th-highest BABIP (.341). In the four starts he's gone UNDER this line (3/4 were at home), his opponents ranked 21st, 23rd, 26th, & 29th in BA vs. RHP. Milwaukee ranks 3rd in average vs. RHP including FIRST in BABIP at .313 and their numbers have been even better over the last month or so. Painter's 4-seamer, sinker, and slider are all getting hit for .318 or better, and Milwaukee ranks 6th in BA & 2nd in BABIP vs. righties throwing those pitches. Milwaukee has scored 3+ runs in 21/27 games when they hit a starting RHP 5+ times, and Painter averages 7.2 HA in five road starts with a .356 BA & .383 BABIP.

[Carm’s Sports Betting Locks @carmslocks]

6/12/26 NRFI/YRFI Algorithm

60%+ NRFI record: 32-32 -5.31u
60%+ YRFI record: 27-17 +9.05u

Beautiful day for some baseball, we’ve got a few plays lined up for today:

1️⃣ HOU @ KC YRFI (-120 Bet365)
2️⃣ TB @ LAA YRFI (-110 Fanatics/CZR)
3️⃣ CHC @ SF NRFI (-109 Novig)

[Carm’s Sports Betting Locks @carmslocks]

Postponed 😐

Full slate tomorrow let’s get after it 🫡

[Carm’s Sports Betting Locks @carmslocks]

6/11/26 NRFI/YRFI Algorithm

60%+ NRFI record: 32-32 -5.31u
60%+ YRFI record: 27-17 +9.05u

Yet another plus-money YRFI winner yesterday, I’ve got another solid YRFI look for today🔻

🌟 ATL @ CWS YRFI (-106 FanDuel)

[Carm’s Sports Betting Locks @carmslocks]

We end one K short pulled on just 81 pitches despite their pen being in bad shape 🤨

Detroit entered 28th in swinging at the first pitch. They put NINE first pitches IN PLAY let alone just swinging, with 14 AB’s not even seeing a 3rd pitch.

Frustrating approach by Detroit, combined with missing by one K makes for a tough one to swallow. YRFI tonight tho let’s get one back 🤝

[Carm’s Sports Betting Locks @carmslocks]

6/11/26 MLB Late Night Play 🌃

Z. Matthews o4.5 K’s (-140 Bet365)

- I love everything about this look, especially given the circumstances in this series. Zebby is over this line in 73.3% of career starts, 11 of his last 13 on the road, and 4/5 this year despite frankly underperforming with his K stuff so far. That's because he's getting WAY deeper into games this year, with 100+ pitches in 3/5 starts, averaging 24.4 batters faced on 6.1 IP per start, compared to just 21.2 batters over 4.2 IP previously. And he has a GREAT reason to go deeper into this start with a 17.5 PO line as Minnesota used FIVE relievers tonight and NINE in the last two days, as he's over this line in 8/10 starts when he goes past FIVE innings let alone six. They had a rain delay today with the game not ending until 11 and will have just a 14-hour turn-around, so they NEED length from Zebby with the bullpen spent as well.

- Detroit has the 4th-highest K-rate vs. RHP at home as Zebby had 6 K's in BOTH their matchups last season, with a 26.3% K% vs. active Tigers. Now Detroit does see the FEWEST first-pitch strikes and chases the 2nd-fewest pitches outside the zone, but Zebby is in the 83rd-percentile in first-pitch strikes and 79th in zone % so he should get a lot of free strikes. He has a 29.3% K% in day games vs. 22.5% at night so what's not to love about this spot??

[Carm’s Sports Betting Locks @carmslocks]

Can grab this at -122 this morning on Novig. Also upgrading to POTD as it’ll be our only player prop today. We’re 8-4 L12 player props and 5-2 L7 K props, let’s have a day gents 🤝

[Carm’s Sports Betting Locks @carmslocks]

6/11/26 MLB Late Night Play 🌃

Z. Matthews o4.5 K’s (-140 Bet365)

- I love everything about this look, especially given the circumstances in this series. Zebby is over this line in 73.3% of career starts, 11 of his last 13 on the road, and 4/5 this year despite frankly underperforming with his K stuff so far. That's because he's getting WAY deeper into games this year, with 100+ pitches in 3/5 starts, averaging 24.4 batters faced on 6.1 IP per start, compared to just 21.2 batters over 4.2 IP previously. And he has a GREAT reason to go deeper into this start with a 17.5 PO line as Minnesota used FIVE relievers tonight and NINE in the last two days, as he's over this line in 8/10 starts when he goes past FIVE innings let alone six. They had a rain delay today with the game not ending until 11 and will have just a 14-hour turn-around, so they NEED length from Zebby with the bullpen spent as well.

- Detroit has the 4th-highest K-rate vs. RHP at home as Zebby had 6 K's in BOTH their matchups last season, with a 26.3% K% vs. active Tigers. Now Detroit does see the FEWEST first-pitch strikes and chases the 2nd-fewest pitches outside the zone, but Zebby is in the 83rd-percentile in first-pitch strikes and 79th in zone % so he should get a lot of free strikes. He has a 29.3% K% in day games vs. 22.5% at night so what's not to love about this spot??

[Carm’s Sports Betting Locks @carmslocks]

6/11/26 NRFI/YRFI Algorithm

60%+ NRFI record: 32-32 -5.31u
60%+ YRFI record: 27-17 +9.05u

Yet another plus-money YRFI winner yesterday, I’ve got another solid YRFI look for today🔻

🌟 ATL @ CWS YRFI (-106 FanDuel)

[Carm’s Sports Betting Locks @carmslocks]

6/11/26 MLB Late Night Play 🌃

Z. Matthews o4.5 K’s (-140 Bet365)

- I love everything about this look, especially given the circumstances in this series. Zebby is over this line in 73.3% of career starts, 11 of his last 13 on the road, and 4/5 this year despite frankly underperforming with his K stuff so far. That's because he's getting WAY deeper into games this year, with 100+ pitches in 3/5 starts, averaging 24.4 batters faced on 6.1 IP per start, compared to just 21.2 batters over 4.2 IP previously. And he has a GREAT reason to go deeper into this start with a 17.5 PO line as Minnesota used FIVE relievers tonight and NINE in the last two days, as he's over this line in 8/10 starts when he goes past FIVE innings let alone six. They had a rain delay today with the game not ending until 11 and will have just a 14-hour turn-around, so they NEED length from Zebby with the bullpen spent as well.

- Detroit has the 4th-highest K-rate vs. RHP at home as Zebby had 6 K's in BOTH their matchups last season, with a 26.3% K% vs. active Tigers. Now Detroit does see the FEWEST first-pitch strikes and chases the 2nd-fewest pitches outside the zone, but Zebby is in the 83rd-percentile in first-pitch strikes and 79th in zone % so he should get a lot of free strikes. He has a 29.3% K% in day games vs. 22.5% at night so what's not to love about this spot??

[Carm’s Sports Betting Locks @carmslocks]

WE’RE THE YRFI GOATS 🐐🐐

CIN @ SD YRFI (+110) ✅

Brady Singer road starts are a YRFI CHEAT CODE, 3/3 on them this year. We’re up +10.52 units on YRFI’s and have a gimme tonight, lock this in🔻🔻

2️⃣ CHC @ COL YRFI (-145 Bet365)

[Carm’s Sports Betting Locks @carmslocks]

6/10/26 NRFI/YRFI Algorithm

60%+ NRFI record: 32-32 -5.31u
60%+ YRFI record: 26-16 +9.42u

IT’S YRFI TIMEEE⌚️Fuck NRFI’s, it’s time for the real bread winners. We’ve got Brady Singer away & a Coors Field matchup today:

1️⃣ CHC @ COL YRFI (-160 CZR/HR)
2️⃣ CIN @ SD YRFI (+110 DK)