Carter Mull

Bavin Capital Management

[Carter Mull @cartermullabc]

NOTES on FUTURES: $ZCZ26 triggering $BTCU26 on fire $CL$X26 selling off - I did not take this ebcause I did not have a backtest on this $ETH$U26 $GC$Z26 could trigger tomtorrow $ZB$Z26 looks like it is heading higher $ZWZ26 setting up could trigger tomorrow $SIZ26 holding on

[Carter Mull @cartermullabc]

NOTES on EQUITY LEADERS and BETA: $CRWD boucng back $AMD $MRNA $INTC all storng $MU and $SNDK a little slower $DELL inside $VLO $MPC showing signs of wear $MAGS breaking out $ASX $DOCN strong $MRVL $UMC solid

[Carter Mull @cartermullabc]

This weeks episode of The World Nine Months fron Now is up: https://t.co/JUkmxjfHex

[Carter Mull @cartermullabc]

NOTES on EQUITY LEADERS and BETA: $QQQ on track for an accumulation week - watching $BZX26 as a tell on the indexes $AMD $DELL $INTC $MRNA all solid $MU and $SNDK look decent too. The weeklies on these are setting up for decent accumulation. $MPC and $VLO (oil names) still strong although these ideas seem to be getting crowded. $CF and $CNH are grinding lower - is this a useful tell on agricutural ideas in the futures markets? $UMC very strong $U not following through

[Carter Mull @cartermullabc]

NOTES on FUTURES: $GCZ26 $SIZ26 were set up to move higher - they did not trigger, which makes sense given the Fed decision. $VXV26 strong bid longs $6EZ26 selling off on volume, short $BTCU26 suprisingly not continuing down today $NKDZ26 showing relative strength compared to the $ESZ26 $CLV26 selling but not falling apart - probably due for a pullback here $ZOZ26 continuing higher $ZTZ26 no surpise that it is continuing down - the serious suprise would be if it went bid tomorrow. $ZCZ26 more volatilty - tight stops here. SPY is coming into the YTD AVWAP at its lows today - a great suprise would be if $ESZ26 went bid tomorrow not unlike the squeeze after FOMC when Situational Awareness' shares were bought by Citadel. The 20 day correlation between the SPY and Oil is high - my best guess is that we would need geopolitical news as a catalyst. $SR3Z26 making new lows

[Carter Mull @cartermullabc]

NOTES on EQUITY LEADERS and BETA: $CRWD $TWST $AMD strong Oil Names Holding up best ($MPC $VLO) - insurance names that came up on the screens weeks back are selling - I'm surprised that names like $PLTR and $SNOW are holding up as well as they are. $LITE and $DOCN showing serious relative strength today. Distribution today on SPY IWM DIA - I'm surprised that many of the leading names are acting as well as they are considering how the indexes look. I am still juggling the question: is there an uptrending makret under the surface despite how bearish the macro backdrop is?

[Carter Mull @cartermullabc]

NOTES on FUTURES: $GCZ26 looks to be setting up as does $SIZ26. $CLV26 really strong and making last weeks volatilty look like nothing - interesting how intense Thursday and Friday felt - and now all that seems mellow since there is follow through $ZCZ26 sideways but actually quite nice considering last Friday's action $ZMZ26 nice follow through $ZOZ26 following through. Bonds pausing with the FOMC on deck for tomorrow $ZWZ26 setting up $VXU26 looks set up to go higehr $VXZ26 is the roll as the U closes tomorrow. The Z contract looks set up for the morning start and a possible wick play tomorrow. Crypto did not like the legislative news on the failure of the Clarity Act.

[Carter Mull @cartermullabc]

NOTES on EQUITY LEADERS and BETA: $CRWD $CRM (weak finish) $NOW $PLTR (not a great finish) $META following through - possible AI monetization theme building here. One issue on $CRWD ($FTNT is similar chart) - these look like third attmepts at breaking out...there has not been an massive amount of progress in leading names with the excception of the Oil names, which are holding up despite volatility yesterady ($DINO $MPC $PSX $VLO $SU) $MRNA not going balastic - I would expect it to take off given the set up $CNH and $CF working - agricultutal ideas continuing what the futures markets have been saying. Semis still weak - $AMD being the strongest of them. $TXG $GH and $TWST looking great here $BRK/B nice here $TMO nice - another defensive name looking good. Distribution on SPY and DIA today

[Carter Mull @cartermullabc]

NOTES on FUTURES: $CLV26 held is 63% fibonacci retracement on Friday and had a generous gap up in the globex although it is interesting here - tight stops for me as I could see it falling apart. $BTCU26 is strong here and breaking out of a flag on the daily. Bitcoin could function in the theme of the fiscal credibility trade - although the dollar would need to be down for this to make sense whereas the dollar is strong today. Another explanation could be the evasion of currency controls $ESZ26 starting to show some signs of liquidation although there was a strong bid today in the cash market - its a get back in on follow through type play for me. $GCZ26 is not holding here although the volume is lighter - the bond sell off may not be driven by fiscal excess here - if it was, I would think gold would be bid today. $ZCZ26 looking decent here after Fridays volatility on the WASDE report $ZMZ26 great here - althought the same set up as beans from last week - which were crushed the next day. Tight stops here. $ZSX26 not following through to the downside. Ag ideas seem to be doing well. $ZBZ26 setting up a bear flag. $ZWZ26 is also holding here, watching for a set up. . $HGZ26 selling hard - this could be a confirmaition of a slowing down in enthusiasm for the AI build out trade. Look at $GLW and $LITE to confirm this read $SR1U26 and $SR3U26 continuing down and showing a continued rise in short term funding costs.

[Carter Mull @cartermullabc]

NOTES on EQUITY LEADERS and BETA: cyber security ($CRWD notably) is strong today. The Anthropic fear scare is helping with cyber. Whereas oil names which had been leading look to be experienceing voltiltiy at extended levels (pretty heavy selling in $XOP off the highs) $GOOG $IGV and $AAPL all look good $MAGS nice action - even if $NVDA continues to sell, other Mag 7 names could keep the indexes moving up, that is if we get a continued bid tomorrow and/or after the FOMC press conference. One possibility here is that there is enough computing power for what businesses need and the next growth cycle in the AI story could be in moentization. This would benefit names like $MSFT $META and $PLTR $CRM $NOW and also Google. The semis and the memory names sold off hard as did copper $HGZ26 $MRNA finally set up to move higher.

[Carter Mull @cartermullabc]

This weeks episode of The World Nine Months from Now is live:
https://t.co/CHPMtnF9ro

[Carter Mull @cartermullabc]

I follow equities closely as they tend to be signals for ideas in the martket, which may show up before they do so in the futures markets. However, I am not a great equities trader at all. I trade futures because it is a space that is worth my time due to out performance of indexing in stocks. Below are the P&L for two accounts of mine. Both trade the same strategy. One started in March of this year and the other on this last June 15.

[Carter Mull @cartermullabc]

NOTES on FUTURES: 237% of average voleme in the euro continous contract, $CLV26 beast, $ETHU26 holding up compared to other risk assets $HGV26 violent selling from near new highs $RBV26 massive move up going into the elections plus bonds getting a strong bid, albeit short lived, on this news that the SCOTUS was blocking voter inhibiting rules - does make me think there is a "sell ameica" trade in effect. $SR1U26 and $SR3U26 selling - lots of volatilty in the short term SOFR space $ZBZ26 massive selling out of a base - 158% of average volume. High Yield bonds and Corporate Bonds have fallen off a cliff. the Equal weigthed S&P ($RSP), whaich was leading, has fallen off a cliff as well. CPI tomorrow morning could be a catalyst to go long on the $ESU26 if we get confirmation on this morning star set up - in this case, I could see the Mag 7 take leadership again. Even then, I'll be cautious (tight stops) that we could get a 3 day bounce considering where oil and bonds are at.

[Carter Mull @cartermullabc]

NOTES on EQUITY LEADERS and BETA: $ABBV in the base $ABNB total round trip - ugly $AMGN continuing down $ADP defesnive holding the 50sma $AMD looks like a fail $CSCO breaking down $CRWD holding the ma's $INTC and $HOOD looking like fails $MSFT very low volume could fail here $NVDA looking like a break down of a rising wedge $SNOW filled the earnings gap $V light volume at the 50sma oil names still higher look very extended yet Oil blasts hire $SPY stalling under the 50sma - CPI tomorrow

[Carter Mull @cartermullabc]

By my count, 5 days of distribution on the SPY in the last 21 days...no back to back days - 8/28>8/31 are the only back to back days in that count