Prize Picks 5 Guy Burger and Fries🍔
NBA Wednesday🔥
Devin Vassell Over 20 PRA
Jalen Brunson Over 31.5 Pts+Asts
Landry Shamet Over 6.5 Pts+Asts
Mikal Bridges Over 21.5 PRA
Victor Wembanyama Over 11.5 Rebs
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@HighLvlBoxing22 Who do ya niggas think abdullah is? Hes not ready for shakur he wasnt even ready for keyshawn let him grow the fight wouldnt be close rn
Prize Picks 5 Guy Burger and Fries🍔
NBA Thursday🔥
Alex Caruso Over 9.5 Points
Cason Wallace Over 6 Rebs+Asts
De'Aaron Fox Over 24.5 PRA
Isaiah Hartenstein Over 18.5 PRA
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 8 Asts
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Targeting the Giants... Again.
MLB Prescription Play #1 ⚾️
Michael Soroka o17.5 POs (-107 DK)
These guys just love getting out as quickly as possible.
Write up ⬇️ Let me know if tailing!🔥
Normally we have been targeting lefties against the Giants but the better righties have been covering with ease as well.
Soroka is a pitcher who consistently sees a good leash and has above average control (85th percentile in walk rate this season), so we like matchups like this against a team that finishes plate appearances quick and has the 2nd lowest OBP vs RHPs at home this season with a pitcher friendly park
It helps that Will Brennan is in the lineup who has a 3.0 Pitches per plate appearance across 19 PAs vs RHPs this season... That is wildly low.
When filtering out the teams that have the highest 15 Pitches/PA, he is over in every game except for 2, where he hooked at 17 POs. One @ Coors which we know is not the best place for efficient pitching.
The other 2025 wagon returns.
MLB Prescription Play #2⚾️
Andrew Abbott o16.5 POs (-125)
He made us so much coin last year. Slow start but I think he’s back.
Full write up below⬇️ I have a ladder coming in my next post if y’all want it🪜
This Mets lineup has the 4th lowest OBP vs LHPs this season and the 10th lowest L30 Days.
As a team, the Mets have had 9th lowest Pitches/PA vs LHPs this season and 7th lowest Pitches/PA vs LHPs L30 days.
When looking at the specific batters in the lineup, Benge, Bichette and Vientos are the only ones in the lineup with above 100 WRC+, the rest are below along with Wagaman who was just called up from the minor league after being with the Marlins last season.
When Abbott faces a team that is a top-22 matchup for lowest Pitches/PA, he is over this line in 5/6 games with the lone miss being his lowest strike-rate game of the season.
He is coming off a nice 6 days rest so his arm is fresh and the Reds bullpen does not exactly have a plethora of arms available.
Abbott's season has been a slow start but his 0.292 xBA in April/March has come down to 0.240 xBA in May with his zone rate also climbing from 46.6% to 49.6%. It isn't quite there yet, but he was an all star yet and is trending in the right direction again.
Lastly, Abbott gets to see 4 lefties in this lineup, the most he has seen in a game this season. his FIP vs Lefties is 3.30, a big improvement from the 5.17 FIP vs Righties. Last season it was also 2.56 to 4.03.
The Ladder of the Day🪜
MLB Prescription Play #3⚾️
Casey Mize o5.5 Ks (-105 FD)
Casey Mize o7.5 Ks (+400 BOV)
Casey Mize o9.5 Ks (+2000 FD)
Write-up ⬇️ Show love if you are ready to climb with me🔥
2 things I love here:
1) He is having a tremendous season. 67th percentile whiff rate and 70th percentile K-rate. His Splitter and Slider usage have jumped in usage on putaway pitches from 40% in 2025 to 57% in 2026. This is huge because he has a 34% whiff rate on both pitches this season.
2) The lineup. Not only was Schaunel swapped for Donovan Walton. Schaunel has the 2nd lowest K% on the team in the last 2 seasons. More importantly, Schaunel is a lefty who is now swapped for a righty. Mize has a 31% whiff rate to righties this season and just 22% vs lefites.
This now makes SEVEN Right handed hitters in the lineup.
He threw 95 pitches in his most recent start and has 5 days rest.
He has had a rollercoaster of a season with a game where he got injured early, a game on a limit once he returned, and a game he was pulled a 74 pitches in his season-high in hits allowed. All other games he had 88+ pitches and was over in 3/4 with the other game being a game with 9 lefties.
Yes this is a lot of asterisks and ifs but the whole point is that this has been a rollercoaster of a season for him and his usage (which is why the model is not as confident in him), but the underlying data of good stuff + good matchup + favorable lineup is all I am conveying here.
Here are the recent RHPs against this matchup
Keider Montero: 7 Ks (+9.3% above avg)📈
Eovaldi: 6 Ks (-3.7% below average)
Severino: 10 Ks (+19.3% above average)📈
Ginn: 10 Ks (+13.7% above average)📈
Sasaki: 8 Ks (+12% above average)📈
Cecconi: 7 Ks (+20.4% above average)📈
Yesavage: 6 Ks (+8% above average)📈
Cease: 10 Ks (+4.6% above average)📈
Martin: 10 Ks (+12.6% above average)📈