anytime touchdown is the most bet prop every week and until now, it was the hardest to find good data to research it.
i built this so the usage, the matchup and the regression gap sit on one screen. this is how you find the guys that are actually going to score.
Introducing the NEW Touchdown Cheat Sheet.
Red-zone usage for every player, then the matchup, then his expected outcomes.
Touchdowns scored vs. touchdowns his usage supports, so you can see who’s due and who’s over performing.
Shown: The data for the top 13 Touchdown usage scores from the past 5 weeks
assists + a teammate’s points is the SGP i see built more than any other. most people build it off box scores.
box score doesn’t tell you who he’s passing to or any other details.
that’s what the passing web is for. every potential assist with filters that give insight.
assists + a teammate’s points is the SGP i see built more than any other. most people build it off box scores.
box score doesn’t tell you who he’s passing to or any other details.
that’s what the passing web is for. every potential assist with filters that give insight.
Introducing Passing Web.
Every potential assist a player creates, mapped to the teammate who took the shot. Shot location, playtype and game-by-game logs on every pass.
Filter by who’s on or off the floor, playtype, game situation and shot zone.
Shown: Luka Doncic → Lakers teammates.
Just about everything that could have gone wrong here
Lost 1st half rotation to 2nd unit going crazy
Then started hooping and got to 13 early in the 3rd.
Then got hurt. Took his 2 FTs, missed both. Then subbed out. Then blowout.
SURGICAL LADDER OF THE NIGHT🏀
Jalen Green 15+ Points (-120)
Jalen Green 20+ Points (+265)
Jalen Green 25+ Points (+830)
Books are just going to act like Jalen can’t go on absolute heaters against good matchups?
Show love if tailing❤️
2 Massive blowouts and a disaster Denver game and a foul trouble 1st half makes looks like his minutes rotation is inconsistent. In reality, the other games have been 30+ pretty consistently.
Outside of those 4 games, the other misses have been Warriors 2x which he has always had trouble against historically.
However, with his normal minutes, in a good PnR matchup... he has been pretty automatic on this line.
36% of his points come in the PnR/Handoff game with another 20% coming in transition. Clippers allow the 5th most Points per PnR to the ball handler and the 12th most points per game in transition.
The Clippers have had a brutal turnover problem all season, so the transition upside for easy buckets of a guy that loves to run in transition is absolutely there.
@ElonOwesMeDoge There is a lot of value in learning by trial and error just by having the touching the ball 3x more per game that he’s not getting since he’s the 5th option
Like he’s so good but he’s going to have to do 3-and-D development to fit with the squad for at least the next 2 years instead of having the ball and growing as a primary or secondary option
SURGICAL LADDER OF THE NIGHT🏀
Jalen Green 15+ Points (-120)
Jalen Green 20+ Points (+265)
Jalen Green 25+ Points (+830)
Books are just going to act like Jalen can’t go on absolute heaters against good matchups?
Show love if tailing❤️
2 Massive blowouts and a disaster Denver game and a foul trouble 1st half makes looks like his minutes rotation is inconsistent. In reality, the other games have been 30+ pretty consistently.
Outside of those 4 games, the other misses have been Warriors 2x which he has always had trouble against historically.
However, with his normal minutes, in a good PnR matchup... he has been pretty automatic on this line.
36% of his points come in the PnR/Handoff game with another 20% coming in transition. Clippers allow the 5th most Points per PnR to the ball handler and the 12th most points per game in transition.
The Clippers have had a brutal turnover problem all season, so the transition upside for easy buckets of a guy that loves to run in transition is absolutely there.