Castiyo

Macroeconomy, investment, technology, architecture, arts and curiosity.
Ukraine situation and the developing buble burst of western living standards.

[Porter Stansberry @porterstansb]

Here's the real reason the A.I. boom is going to run out of capital. It's the same reason why rates are rising. And it's exactly why there's suddenly a mad scramble for capital in A.I. Equity values will fall as the cost of capital increases 20%-30%. But that's only the beginning👇

[Jesús Fernández-Villaverde @JesusFerna7026]

Cuelgo de nuevo este post porque hay que insistir una y otra vez: el País Vasco y Navarra, la segunda y tercera comunidad autónoma de más renta, reciben transferencias fiscales netas de las otras 15 comunidades autónomas.

Es decir: el conjunto de las administraciones públicas presta servicios y paga transferencias a los habitantes del País Vasco y Navarra que están muy por encima del conjunto de impuestos y cotizaciones sociales que pagan los habitantes y empresas de los habitantes del País Vasco y Navarra.

Transferir de los relativamente pobres a los relativamente ricos es un escándalo que atenta contra los principios básicos del Estado del Bienestar.

Pero todavía es más escándalo que la inmensa mayoría de los economistas de izquierda y centroizquierda que se dedican en España a temas fiscales permanezcan callados como tumbas al respecto porque esto de los fueros, un residuo feudal, debe ser muy progresista.

[Luis del Pino @ldpsincomplejos]

No puedes recoger aceitunas de noche, por si los pájaros quieren descansar en el olivar.

Pero puedes talar el olivar entero para poner una granja de paneles solares.

Y si no lo entiendes, jostídiate.

[Jhc89 @JhcarrascoJose]

Esto está pasando en Madrid

[Club Del Corsa (oficial) @franccock_]

posiblemente lo más extraordinario que le vi hacer a un ser humano.
la cara de estupefacción al darse cuenta que acaba de entregar su obra maestra a la humanidad y que probablemente no vuelva a llegar a esa cima aunque lo intente el resto de su vida (yo con los audios de latorre)

[Juan González-Barba @JuanGBarba]

Jorge Dezcallar es el diplomático español que mejor conoce Marruecos,no solo por haber sido embajador en Rabat. Sus otros cargos de director del CNI, embajador en Washington y director político del MAEC le dan una perspectiva única https://t.co/FZsmCvKvfD a través de @elperiodico

[The Telegraph @Telegraph]

The Spanish prime minister recently made headlines around the world after about 72,000 migrants swam or burst into Spain’s north African enclave Ceuta. By Aug 4, Spain estimated 70,000 of 72,000 who had crossed had returned to Morocco.

But the sight of tens of thousands of people streaming across Europe’s only land border with Africa prompted an extraordinary, critical response from 22 of the 27 European Union bloc members, who blamed Pedro Sánchez’s migration policy.

It was just the latest controversy for the socialist Spanish leader, who finds himself increasingly isolated on the world stage ⤵️
https://t.co/s8eAclY1KN

[Jaime de Berenguer @jaimeberenguer]

@Telegraph lo tiene claro
«El paria socialista español lleva a Europa al límite».
Estamos gobernados por un loco.

[Zara Zhang @zarazhangrui]

This paper gives a fancy name to a problem you can already feel in your bones

"The Tragedy of the Cognitive Commons." Checking AI output requires deep expertise. Deep expertise comes from doing grunt work for years. And grunt work is the first thing AI eats

So we're building systems that need expert supervision while dismantling the only known process for making experts

The paper calls the shared pool of human expertise the "cognitive commons." Every profession drinks from it. Nobody's refilling it.

By eliminating junior roles, each company is acting totally rationally, and the collective result: a profession that can't catch AI's mistakes anymore because it never learned to do the work in the first place

Who checks AI's homework in 15 years?

[Alexander Steffen @Alex__Steffen]

Über zwei Billionen Dollar Entwicklungshilfe sind seit den 1950er Jahren nach Afrika geflossen und ein nachhaltiger Erfolg ist ausgeblieben. Als Elon Musk anbot, Tesla-Aktien zu verkaufen und 6 Milliarden bereitzustellen, wenn die UN öffentlich und im Detail darlegt, wie genau dieses Geld den Welthunger lösen soll, blieb eine überzeugende Antwort aus.

Deutschland gibt übrigens jährlich rund 30 Milliarden Euro für Entwicklungshilfe aus. Dieses Geld fehlt den deutschen Steuerzahlern in Zeiten knapper Kassen und steigender Belastung. Die deutsche Entwicklungshilfe muss eingestellt werden.

[Today In History @historigins]

In the 1640's the Dutch inhabitants of New Amsterdam built a 12 foot wall to keep the
"bad people" out. In 1664 the British ignored the wall and took New Amsterdam by sea. It's now called New York. They took down the wall and built a street, which is now called Wall Street.

[Jusapol Madrid @jusapolmadrid]

Mas de 750 MILLONES de euros saqueados a los españoles.

La UCO destapa una trama de corrupción brutal desde la SEPI bajo el mando de Pedro Sánchez. Un atraco en toda regla y un pillaje sistemático al contribuyente.

#CasoPSOE #CorrupcionPSOE #SánchezDimision

[Zineb Riboua @zriboua]

Ceuta, Morocco, Understanding the Situation

For a long time, Islamist rhetoric in Morocco has painted Europe as a kind of promised land, a place where welfare never runs out, chances are everywhere, and prosperity comes easily, with barely any effort required. The objective has always been to weaken trust in Morocco's own institutions and steer young people toward leaving.

But those very currents held power after the 2011 constitutional reforms tied to the Arab Spring. Their time in government produced a sluggish economy, unfulfilled promises, and a public that steadily lost faith. Since then, the pitch has barely changed. The same refrains keep coming back, while Morocco is framed as a failed state, not worth anyone’s loyalty, not worth building, not worth investing in.

In that narrative, Morocco is often branded a kafir state and the King is attacked as not Islamic enough. Young Moroccans are urged toward jihad and a permanent stance of confrontation with the West. Amazigh (Berber) identity, too, is mocked or dismissed as backward, even primitive. Year after year, the effort has been to drain the spirit out of an entire generation, to sell them on one bleak claim above all: their country has no future.

The same ideological current also pushes a claim that Morocco is trying to “reclaim Muslim land” via Ceuta and Melilla. In reality, no Moroccan government has expressed such a demand to the United Nations or any similar international body. Official diplomacy has kept those enclaves separate from Western Sahara, where Rabat has made a formal, explicit sovereignty claim for decades. That difference says a lot about the distance between Morocco’s actual foreign policy and the Islamist storyline built for ideological mobilization.

It’s also worth noting where the loudest demand has come from. A Moroccan Islamist leader has publicly argued that the country “must eventually regain control of Ceuta and Melilla.” By projecting that position onto the state while brushing aside official statements and practice, Islamist activists manufacture a thin appearance of legitimacy for a campaign that aims to weaken state authority, and amplify the message online for global support. Morocco’s ties with Israel and the United States then get turned into a weapon as well, presented as proof that the government itself lacks legitimacy.

Morocco remains a developing country. Real social and economic difficulties persist, and legitimate frustrations deserve to be taken seriously. Still, describing the country as hopeless helps no one, not Moroccans and not anyone interested in meaningful reform. In practice, that narrative mainly benefits two groups: people looking to justify illegal migration, and those trying to strip the Moroccan state of legitimacy.

The timing is also interesting: general elections are set for 23 September, and Islamist operators understand that border chaos, magnified on social media, can destabilize the incumbent narrative before the vote.

Since October 7, this has sharpened, in part because Islamists now face a possible political rival in Fouzi Lekjaa, the highly capable president of the Royal Moroccan Football Federation. Lekjaa is widely credited with driving Morocco’s historic run to the semi-finals in the 2022 World Cup and with turning the national team into a global force. Now he is using his key role in winning and preparing for the 2030 World Cup, co-hosted with Spain and Portugal, to bolster his profile as a potential prime minister, and to deepen his standing as one of the country’s most influential public figures.

Contrary to the conspiracy talk that spreads online, Morocco gains nothing from uncontrolled crossings. Some critics point to Algeria’s relationships with European governments, but every major European state keeps channels open with Algiers, Giorgia Meloni’s Italy has a notably strong relationship, while Morocco’s day-to-day cooperation has stayed consistently solid across the board. That includes strong migration frameworks with France and Germany, including a bilateral partnership signed with Berlin in 2024 that has driven higher returns, deportation arrangements with Hungary and Poland, and, most recently, close operational coordination with the United States.

The truth is that Morocco is itself under heavy migration pressure coming from the Sahel. In 2025 alone, authorities intercepted 73,640 attempted irregular crossings, and sub-Saharan nationals now account for nearly 60% of foreign residents.

Last year, several thousand Sudanese and other Sahel-origin migrants also crossed the eastern border, adding to the strain already felt in Moroccan cities, it’s a pressure ordinary Moroccans regularly complain about. The chaos of the past two days only worsens Morocco’s position rather than helping it: once the impression of an open or uncontrolled border spreads, it draws in even more refugees and irregular migrants, piling additional weight onto a burden that is already substantial.

https://t.co/sR2fyqMzrY

[SightBringer @_The_Prophet__]

⚡️Japan is reaching the end of the postwar bargain that allowed an aging society to promise itself stability without ever fully paying the market price for that stability.

The deepest structure is generational extraction through time.

Japan spent decades suppressing the return on savings, suppressing the cost of government borrowing, suppressing the clearing price of sovereign duration, and using the BOJ to prevent the financial system from discovering what all of those promises actually cost.

That bought social peace. It preserved pensions, banks, insurers, government solvency, employment, and asset values long enough for the population to age inside the protection.

Now the people who were supposed to carry those promises forward are fewer, the debt is vastly larger, the financial institutions are stuffed with assets created under the old rate regime, and inflation has returned as the force that makes permanent suppression impossible.

The country has reached the point where every escape route takes wealth from somebody.

Let long yields rise and the old bond books bleed.

Push yields back down and the yen absorbs the loss.

Defend the yen and liquidity tightens into an economy already carrying enormous duration exposure.

Compensate households for inflation and fiscal issuance grows.

Monetize enough of that issuance and the currency becomes the release valve again.

There is no clean exit because the losses already exist. Policy only decides their destination.

That is what the insurer losses are telling you. They are the visible edge of a national balance sheet that was built around the assumption that time could remain almost free forever.

Japan has more claims on future Japanese production than the future Japanese population can honor at the purchasing power those claims originally implied.

That is the insolvency.

It will never appear as a conventional bankruptcy because the state owes most of those claims in a currency it controls. The machine can always manufacture the units required for settlement.

So the default migrates into the unit itself.

A pension remains a pension.

An insurance policy remains an insurance policy.

A JGB still matures at par.

A bank deposit still shows the same number.

The holder quietly receives less real command over food, energy, housing, imported goods, labor, and foreign assets.

That is how the state resolves the contradiction without announcing defeat.

Japan is therefore entering a period where the government increasingly preserves nominal civilization by consuming real purchasing power.

That is the endgame.

And the life insurers are trapped directly in the middle because they sold promises about the future using assets priced by the old world. Higher yields eventually improve their economics, yet the road to those higher yields destroys the market value of what they already own. They need the new regime and are wounded by the transition into it.

That is why this can become reflexive.

As yields climb, old assets lose value. Capital buffers weaken. The incentive to rebalance rises. If policyholders ever begin moving money toward more attractive alternatives, cash needs increase. Asset sales then reinforce the very yield move creating the losses.

At that moment, the BOJ becomes the buyer of last resort again.

There is no other final buyer with an infinite balance sheet in yen.

That is where this ends.

[Dios @diostuitero]

¡Bravo por esta mujer de Ceuta!
Menudo repaso le ha metido a este personaje.

[@CisneNegro2022 @CisneNegro2Q22]

*La prensa estadounidense ya alerta al país y al mundo.*

"España está gobernada por un dictador de extrema izquierda" .

Un nuevo dictador de extrema izquierda llega a Europa.
Así se titula un artículo publicado en "The American Spectator", un medio de comunicación americano editado en Washington, que retrata a Pedro Sánchez como un líder totalitarista que "está robando la democracia a España, delante de nuestras narices y de la UE, ante la impotencia de la oposición y la pasividad de la comunidad internacional.

La columna, (que se ha colado entre lo más leído del diario americano), destaca en primer lugar el fracaso electoral del actual presidente en funciones y denuncia las maniobras de Sánchez para retorcer las leyes, colonizar todos los poderes e instituciones, y negocia y acuerda con comunistas de extrema izquierda, terroristas, golpistas y todos los nacionalistas regionales para impedir la investidura de la derecha que ganó las elecciones.
E incluso negocia con un prófugo de la justicia española en Bruselas.

Se recalca que "Sánchez" ha vendido la nación entera a los caprichos de quienes dieron un golpe de Estado contra España en 2017, anunciando una amnistía con los mismos que lo cometieron e incluso para los implicados en terrorismo, perdonando la deuda catalana (que ahora pagarán todos los españoles), introduciendo el concepto de lawfare en el acuerdo para que los políticos puedan perseguir ahora a los jueces que defendieron la legalidad constitucional en 2017, y comprometiéndose a la celebración de un referéndum de independencia ilegal que no lo contempla su constitución, ni la de ningún país del mundo.

Asimismo, se alerta a los americanos de que " España ha dejado de ser un Estado de Derecho" y está en inminente transición hacia una dictadura de extrema izquierda de un insoportable tufo venezolano.

Y recuerda los lazos de los socios de gobierno de Sánchez con los terroristas de Hamás, la intrusión del brazo político de ETA en el Ejecutivo y las cesiones de los socialistas a los golpistas catalanes del 2017. Además "The American Spectator" destaca la oposición mayoritaria de los españoles a los pactos del presidente, "porque acaban con la igualdad ante la ley (se perdonan los delitos si eres independentista catalán) y arruina a toda la nación, con el pago de los votos para ser presidente.

El artículo compara a Sánchez con dictadores como Chávez o Maduro y alega que el líder socialista "preparó su propio golpe de Estado desde hace muchos meses. Ha colonizado muchas instituciones, como el congreso, tribunal de cuentas, fiscalía, tribunal europeo y tribunal constitucional, colocando al frente de este tribunal que ha decidido sobre la constitucionalidad,–en referencia a Cándido Conde-Pumpido–, militante socialista de su absoluta confianza para valorar cualquier basura que el Gobierno vomite en forma de ley, así como un ministro de su gobierno. y una asesora de presidencia y de un ministerio, también socialistas, así como otros miembros muy afines a su partido.

Finalmente, se lamenta que, a pesar de que millones de españoles se han echado a la calle para protestar durante los últimos días, "esta gran nación que está en manos de un dictador socialista que es –duele admitirlo– demasiado estúpido para dejarse ganar".
Que corra por todas las redes y compártelo para que se enteren todos de la realidad que está pasando en España.

https://t.co/OsrB3GQxMg

[Iain Cameron @theiaincameron]

A lot of people assume that most Africans carried across the Atlantic as slaves were taken to what became the United States.

They weren't.

The true geography of the Atlantic slave trade looks very different.

1/n

(Note: each image has a description and source.)

[📊 Value Academia ⚖️ 📈📉📈 @ValueAcademia]

He creado un revisor del BOE automático. Este vídeo de @juansotoivars me animó a continuar el proyecto que tenía medias.

Esta ya funcional 100% gratis, notificaciones y resúmenes entendibles del BOE para saber dónde va tu dinero

https://t.co/DmV7CUDZbU

[Dr. David Lütke @DrLuetke]

Das Döner-Kartell:

500 Euro-Job im Dönerladen.
+ Aufstocken beim Amt
+ Miete zahlt Amt
+ Krankenversicherung zahlt Amt
+ Rest läuft mit Schwarzarbeit

Mit Ehefrau und Kindern mehr Netto als mancher Akademiker.

Deutschland, Land der Asozialen:

[Santiago Abascal 🇪🇸 @Santi_ABASCAL]

La traición de Pedro Sánchez a los españoles debe llevarse a los tribunales.

Por ello proponemos activar el procedimiento previsto en el artículo 102 de la Constitución, que atribuye a la Sala de lo Penal del Tribunal Supremo la competencia para exigir la responsabilidad criminal del presidente y de los miembros del Gobierno cuando la acusación se refiera a delitos de traición o contra la seguridad del Estado cometidos en el ejercicio de sus funciones.

Hay indicios y evidencias más que suficientes. Entre otras el conocimiento previo que tenía el Gobierno de Sánchez respect a la invasión de Ceuta.