Smit Shah

Non Linearity, Convexity and Catalysts

[Smit Shah @catalystcurve]

Disc: Not a recommendation to buy/sell. For educational purposes only

[Smit Shah @catalystcurve]

$Long GDX

[Smit Shah @catalystcurve]

Note: exited.

[Smit Shah @catalystcurve]

Copper heading for new ATH.

[Smit Shah @catalystcurve]

$VSH Long

[Smit Shah @catalystcurve]

Note: This one briefly hit the SL, but I am holding.

[Smit Shah @catalystcurve]

$ALGM Long

[Horse @TheFlowHorse]

Rule #1 of trading.

Do everything you can to stay in the game. Protect your chip stack.

[Smit Shah @catalystcurve]

$AMBA Long

[Smit Shah @catalystcurve]

Note: The SL was hit on this one.

[Smit Shah @catalystcurve]

Long $ON

Disc: Biased, this is not a recommendation to buy/sell.

[Smit Shah @catalystcurve]

@ZeeContrarian1 https://t.co/AcoYi9JILx

It is a long short momentum unwind, postioning driving the price.

[Smit Shah @catalystcurve]

Long Short Momentum Kill

[Smit Shah @catalystcurve]

Long Short Momentum Kill

[Le Shrub🌳 @agnostoxxx]

Quite a few people got wiped out lately and a lot more remain in denial.

A few pointers for survival:

No FOMO, no leverage, keep cash on the side, don’t be Stupid and remember to Give Thanks.

Good luck out there
🥹🙏🌳

[Cred @CryptoCred]

If you trade trend, you'll get a bunch of false starts

If you trade momentum, you'll often buy the top/sell the bottom

If you trade mean reversion, you'll periodically get carried out by an outsized move

And so on for basically every trading system

This is the cost of doing business that's embedded into every market effect you're monetising

Your job is to understand it and manage it

If you try to avoid it entirely you simply won't get paid

There's no perfect system, it's all about managing trade-offs

Go take a look at your setups/playbook or wherever your trading system lives and map its assumptions and failure cases

The stuff you wanna avoid:

1. Mutating your system because the risk feels uncomfy so you get the worst of both worlds e.g. not holding for long trends/outsized moves but still eating the false starts when you're wrong (all the downside, no balls for the upside)

2. Not knowing what the trade-offs are and sizing like a dickhead so when you're wrong it wipes out all your gains e.g. penny collecting on mean reversion with increasing size and then getting fully wiped on the outsized move

[Smit Shah @catalystcurve]

continuation

[Ethan Kho @ethanrkho]

All top hedge funds see the same public information and do the same work. A Two Sigma veteran on where the edge actually lives:

Omer Cedar built Two Sigma's alpha capture program.

He explains:

"Competitive advantage comes with two things: context and nuance. The markets live in the nuance."

"Understanding context is table stakes. If you don't have it, don't even bother playing the game — it's the ante at the poker table."

"New information doesn't come into the marketplace all at once. It's not like at 5:52 PM everybody knows everything."

"Information comes in, someone learns, forms an opinion, trades. The next person learns, forms an opinion, trades."

"The stock doesn't move all at once. It moves a little bit, day by day, as people assimilate — buying a little bit, and a little bit, and a little bit."

"You're not going to be first in. You don't want to be last in. You want the first quartile of the propagation curve."

[Smit Shah @catalystcurve]

@P_Remarks

[Fed @lord_fed]

Momentum has declared independence from the rest of the market