CA Tarun Kumar Soni

CA by qualification. Trader by obsession.
Charts don't lie - balance sheets sometimes do.
Views personal, not advice

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

I’ve been warning about this for years

[CA Tarun Kumar Soni @catarunksoni]

@kumar_iyyani @IamDebapratim @manoj_216 Slab kicks in even at 12lacs, it's just that there you get a deduction u/s 87A. Therefore zerotax.

In 13 lacs also slab kicks in.

[CA Tarun Kumar Soni @catarunksoni]

@IamDebapratim @manoj_216 If this is your only income. Then No tax.

[CA Tarun Kumar Soni @catarunksoni]

Big change in Indian stock markets from today.

SEBI replaced the old closing price system.

F&O stocks now close at 3:40 PM.

Intraday square off timings have changed.

Your mutual fund NAV just got more accurate.

Full breakdown on LinkedIn -

https://t.co/UCzLQgUwxG

#SEBI #StockMarket #FnO #CAS #NSE #Nifty #IndiaMarkets

[CA Tarun Kumar Soni @catarunksoni]

@Cockroachisback Sending food. Finally DP resigned. Enjoy Burger Boys n Girls for your win.

@Cockroachisback
@Cockroachisback @CJP_for_India

[CA Tarun Kumar Soni @catarunksoni]

#gold #goldman

[JH @CRUDEOIL231]

Goldman on precious metal.

#gold $gld

[CA Tarun Kumar Soni @catarunksoni]

SL hit

[CA Tarun Kumar Soni @catarunksoni]

Short Setup in #lindeindia
Spot 7222
SL 7560 for a Tgt of 7020/6900

#stockmarket

[CA Tarun Kumar Soni @catarunksoni]

Entry Triggered at 1623.

[CA Tarun Kumar Soni @catarunksoni]

#PIXTRANS

Bullish setup is formed. Breakout at resistance.

Long at 1623 with a SL of 1540 for 1780/1900.

#SwingTraders

[CA Tarun Kumar Soni @catarunksoni]

Entered Short

#britannia

[CA Tarun Kumar Soni @catarunksoni]

#Britannia Industries - chart is telling a clear story.

Stock has been struggling at the 5381 zone same level that acted as support/resistance multiple times in the past.

Currently at 5335. Below that critical zone. The blue circles on the chart say it all.

Sell below 5270, SL 5480
Target 1 - 5100/4990.
Target 2 - 4700/4600 (shift to July futures). 4659 is the next major support. That is the real target if momentum builds.

Not investment advice. Do your own analysis.

#Britannia #NSE #TechnicalAnalysis #StockMarket #Trading #Nifty

[CA Tarun Kumar Soni @catarunksoni]

#Britannia Industries - chart is telling a clear story.

Stock has been struggling at the 5381 zone same level that acted as support/resistance multiple times in the past.

Currently at 5335. Below that critical zone. The blue circles on the chart say it all.

Sell below 5270, SL 5480
Target 1 - 5100/4990.
Target 2 - 4700/4600 (shift to July futures). 4659 is the next major support. That is the real target if momentum builds.

Not investment advice. Do your own analysis.

#Britannia #NSE #TechnicalAnalysis #StockMarket #Trading #Nifty

[CA Tarun Kumar Soni @catarunksoni]

#PIXTRANS

Bullish setup is formed. Breakout at resistance.

Long at 1623 with a SL of 1540 for 1780/1900.

#SwingTraders

[CA Tarun Kumar Soni @catarunksoni]

What is happening in the bond market right now - the full picture:

Bond vigilantes have returned. They are selling US treasuries. Yields rising. Dollar strengthening. Rupee collapsing.

And India is caught in the crossfire.

- RBI cannot cut rates.
- FPIs pulling out of Indian bonds.
- Every Indian company that borrowed in dollars at Rs
84 is now paying 15% more to repay the same debt.

Full breakdown - what is happening, why it matters for India, and what to watch next - on my LinkedIn post.

Do give a read: https://t.co/5WY7vGWSNC

#Rupee #BondMarket #USDebt #BondVigilantes #RBI #IndiaEconomy #CAInsights #Forex #GlobalMacro

[CA Tarun Kumar Soni @catarunksoni]

Bullish on #TMCV at 385.

Formation of rounding bottom at support. Can go long with a SL of 365 for 410/15.

#Chart Self explanatory.

#stock #swingtrade #fno

[CA Tarun Kumar Soni @catarunksoni]

https://t.co/36mKu1v5SA

[ANI @ANI]

#WATCH | Panaji, Goa | Parle Industries stock price shot up today after the PM gifted Parle 'Melody' to the Italian PM. On this, Vice President of Parle Products, Mayank Shah, says, "There is a listed company by the name Parle Industries. It is a separate company, and we have nothing to do with them. I think people are mistaken by the fact that this company also has the name Parle in their company name. Due to people confusing that company with Parle Products, you are seeing traction in the stock of that particular company today."

[CA Tarun Kumar Soni @catarunksoni]

- Restriction removes Indian physical demand from the global silver market. India is the world's largest single buyer of silver (approx 13% of global silver demand). When the world's biggest buyer steps back global prices feel it. Bearish for COMEX silver in the short term.

- Domestic supply tightens. Indian premiums rise. MCX disconnects from COMEX. Domestic silver looks expensive relative to global.

https://t.co/joMN9Si3O0

[CA Tarun Kumar Soni @catarunksoni]

India just restricted silver bar imports. Everyone is calling it bullish for silver.

I think that is the wrong read. At least in the short term.

Let me explain what actually happened this week and what it really means for silver prices.

What the government did - three steps in five days:
PM Modi urged citizens to reduce gold purchases.

May 13 - customs duty on gold and silver hiked from 6% to 15%.

May 16 - silver bars under HS codes 71069221 and 71069229 moved from Free to Restricted. With immediate effect.

Most people are focused on the duty hike. The restriction is the bigger move.

A duty hike makes imports expensive. You can still import. You just pay more.

A restriction makes imports permission-based. You now need DGFT authorisation for every shipment. Without that licence you cannot import at all. No matter what price you are willing to pay.

Most analysts are calling it bullish. Restriction means supply tightens. Domestic premiums rise. MCX disconnects from global prices.
That part is correct. But it is only half the story.

The other half and the more important short term read is bearish.

This is not a silver story. This is a Balance of Payments stress response.

War risk in West Asia → oil prices higher → India's import bill rises → dollar demand rises → rupee comes under pressure.

In that environment India will naturally restrict non-essential dollar outflows. Gold and silver imports are exactly that dollar outflows that stress the forex reserves further.

So the sequence is:

Step 1 - Restriction removes Indian physical demand from the global silver market. India is the world's largest single buyer of silver (approx 13% of global silver demand). When the world's biggest buyer steps back global prices feel it. Bearish for COMEX silver in the short term.

Step 2 - Domestic supply tightens. Indian premiums rise. MCX disconnects from COMEX. Domestic silver looks expensive relative to global.

Step 3 - ETF subscriptions halt. This is not speculation. We have seen this before in Oct-2015.

The one line summary:
Silver did not get restricted because it is unimportant. It got restricted because India needs dollars more than it needs silver right now.

#Silver #MCX #COMEX #Rupee #BOP #SilverETF #Bullion #CustomsDuty #DGFT #IndiaEconomy #CAInsights #WestAsia #Trading #Gold #Commodities

[CA Tarun Kumar Soni @catarunksoni]

India just restricted silver bar imports. Everyone is calling it bullish for silver.

I think that is the wrong read. At least in the short term.

Let me explain what actually happened this week and what it really means for silver prices.

What the government did - three steps in five days:
PM Modi urged citizens to reduce gold purchases.

May 13 - customs duty on gold and silver hiked from 6% to 15%.

May 16 - silver bars under HS codes 71069221 and 71069229 moved from Free to Restricted. With immediate effect.

Most people are focused on the duty hike. The restriction is the bigger move.

A duty hike makes imports expensive. You can still import. You just pay more.

A restriction makes imports permission-based. You now need DGFT authorisation for every shipment. Without that licence you cannot import at all. No matter what price you are willing to pay.

Most analysts are calling it bullish. Restriction means supply tightens. Domestic premiums rise. MCX disconnects from global prices.
That part is correct. But it is only half the story.

The other half and the more important short term read is bearish.

This is not a silver story. This is a Balance of Payments stress response.

War risk in West Asia → oil prices higher → India's import bill rises → dollar demand rises → rupee comes under pressure.

In that environment India will naturally restrict non-essential dollar outflows. Gold and silver imports are exactly that dollar outflows that stress the forex reserves further.

So the sequence is:

Step 1 - Restriction removes Indian physical demand from the global silver market. India is the world's largest single buyer of silver (approx 13% of global silver demand). When the world's biggest buyer steps back global prices feel it. Bearish for COMEX silver in the short term.

Step 2 - Domestic supply tightens. Indian premiums rise. MCX disconnects from COMEX. Domestic silver looks expensive relative to global.

Step 3 - ETF subscriptions halt. This is not speculation. We have seen this before in Oct-2015.

The one line summary:
Silver did not get restricted because it is unimportant. It got restricted because India needs dollars more than it needs silver right now.

#Silver #MCX #COMEX #Rupee #BOP #SilverETF #Bullion #CustomsDuty #DGFT #IndiaEconomy #CAInsights #WestAsia #Trading #Gold #Commodities

[CA Tarun Kumar Soni @catarunksoni]

@Macrobysunil
Most analysts are calling it bullish. Restriction means supply tightens. Domestic premiums rise. MCX disconnects from global prices.

That part is correct. But it is only half the story.

The other half and the more important short term read is bearish.

This is not a silver story. This is a Balance of Payments stress response.

War risk in West Asia → oil prices higher → India's import bill rises → dollar demand rises → rupee comes under pressure.

In that environment India will naturally restrict non-essential dollar outflows. Gold and silver imports are exactly that dollar outflows that stress the forex reserves further.

So the sequence is:
Step 1 - Restriction removes Indian physical demand from the global silver market. India is the world's largest single buyer of silver (approx 13% of global silver demand). When the world's biggest buyer steps back global prices feel it. Bearish for COMEX silver in the short term.

Step 2 - Domestic supply tightens. Indian premiums rise. MCX disconnects from COMEX. Domestic silver looks expensive relative to global.

Step 3 - ETF subscriptions halt. This is not speculation. We have seen this before in Oct-2015.

The one line summary:
Silver did not get restricted because it is unimportant. It got restricted because India needs dollars more than it needs silver right now.

[CA Tarun Kumar Soni @catarunksoni]

@VijayKedia1

Dear @anandmahindra Ji,

Your India business is genuinely outstanding -
✅ ₹1,545 cr income, zero debt
✅ 31.8% EBITDA margin
✅ ₹1,555 cr cash in hand
✅ 84% occupancy

Yet on a consolidated basis, PAT drops from ₹200 cr to ₹126 cr.

The culprit? Holiday Club Europe which is losing €2 million a year.

The India story is exceptional. Why let Finland write the headline?

Perhaps it is time to ring-fence or exit HCR Europe and let the India business be valued on its own extraordinary merit.

Written with deep respect.
....A concerned Potential Shareholder

[Vijay Kedia @VijayKedia1]

Dear @anandmahindra Ji,
At a time when even our Hon’ble PM is encouraging domestic tourism, I genuinely feel Mahindra Holidays is sitting on a massive long term opportunity.

India today has a rapidly growing affluent and aspirational middle class with increasing preference for experiential family travel, yet Club Mahindra still has only around 3 lakh member families in India. The headroom for growth appears enormous.

India’s hospitality cycle is strong, Club Mahindra enjoys immense brand trust and healthy occupancy, yet the true value of the India business seems overshadowed by the continuing drag from the overseas Holiday Club business.

Perhaps the time has come for a strategic review - ring-fence, restructure, demerge or reduce exposure to the European subsidiary so that the India business can be valued independently on its own merit.

Additionally, sharper focus on capital light expansion, younger branding, digital engagement and modern hospitality thinking could unlock substantial shareholder value in the years ahead.

Written with utmost respect and admiration for the Mahindra Group and your visionary leadership. ....
A concerned long term shareholder.

[CA Tarun Kumar Soni @catarunksoni]

Tomorrow will be a Green day for both Midcap and Smallcap stocks.

#midcap #smallcap