Kris

6 days ago

catching_algos retweeted

Grok

@grok

6 days ago

No. There was no sovereign Arab or Palestinian state in 1948 to give land to anyone. The territory was the British Mandate for Palestine. The 1947 UN Partition Plan proposed dividing it into Jewish and Arab states. Jewish leaders accepted; Arab leaders rejected it. Israel declared independence in May 1948 and was invaded by neighboring Arab armies.

390

7 days ago

@FKGZNG @GordoCDA Whatever happens with this deal, it’s not over. You can’t make deals with the devil and expect it to hold.

catching_algos retweeted

NBC News

@NBCNews

8 days ago

Thanks to its perceived resemblance to a certain U.S. president, a rare albino buffalo named “Donald Trump” has been given a new lease on life and will be saved from sacrifice and sent to a zoo. https://t.co/4kOfgODN2L

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catching_algos retweeted

Cari Kelemen

@KelemenCari

9 days ago

I think John Cornyn's time has passed him by.

810

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catching_algos retweeted

Jeremy Boreing

@JeremyDBoreing

11 days ago

Memorial Day belongs to the fallen. The men and women who didn’t come home, and the ones we asked to do impossible things in our name. But we are failing them. A majority of the veterans who fought in the War on Terror now describe that war as a mistake. Because for fifteen years they’ve been told from every direction that the war itself was fake. When podcasters, politicians, and influencers call American wars “fake” or “foolish” or even “evil” to score cheap political points, they are telling our veterans this: If the war you fought in was foolish, you were a fool to volunteer. If the war you fought in was wrong, you were wrong to fight. If the war you fought in was evil, then the things you did in it were evil. It tears down not only the soldier, but the very idea that America is good and worth fighting for. The West is in trouble —and not because of the War on Terror. The West is in trouble because we have forgotten why we fought it: https://t.co/QgVSspAVbA

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catching_algos retweeted

Jere_Memez

@Jere_Memez

11 days ago

@DavidJHarrisJr @Debaruni11 In a world full of evil, be this guy.

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51K

11 days ago

@RealSKeshel Have you looked at the Senate race in Maine?

catching_algos retweeted

Saul Sadka

@Saul_Sadka

11 days ago

So much catastrophising and confusion. Let’s work it through: Trump has set a final offer on the table with his minimum demands while pointing a gun at the IRGC’s temple: “Sign or die.” The red line that Trump has declared openly for a while is what he calls the “nuclear dust.” And he is correct to have that as the only red line. If that is achieved, everything else will fall into place over time, and Trump will be able to present it as victory. If he compromises on that red line over the truce period, he will not be able to, though even still, degrading the IRGC in the way that it has been is actually a massive victory for the USA and Israel. Let’s try to clear it up and understand the incentives of all the parties. All the worst, most sinister IRGC figures were celebrating yesterday, which does indeed appear alarming, but recall: they are people who have been wrong about everything for 20 years. First, from a purely Israeli strategic perspective, the only thing that matters in the negotiations with Iran is the nuclear material. Everything else is irrelevant by comparison. The proxies don’t matter, the missiles don’t matter, commitments from Iran don’t matter, Hormuz doesn’t matter to Israel at all. Why? 1. The proxies have largely been destroyed. They are reduced in strength by at least 90%. Hezbollah is now a “Lebanese people problem,” Hamas is a “Gazan people problem,” and the Houthis are an issue for Saudis and shippers. Any attempts by the IRGC to rebuild will never be able to match the countervailing ability of Israel to attrit those attempts. 2. The missiles Iran built up at vast expense have been exposed as useless against Israel without the nuclear tips they were built to carry. The brutal math of the rocket equation means that each of these extremely expensive, hard-to-move, and harder-to-hide missiles can bring one tonne of explosives to bear at most, and at levels of accuracy that make them useless except as terror weapons against civilians. Even by that metric, they fail, with Iran having to fire about 50 to kill a single Israeli civilian. They certainly lost far more members of their launch crews than the missiles managed to kill. They have lost most, if not all, of their capacity to rebuild their program, and if they try, Israel has the proven ability to attrit their rebuilding efforts, and there is nobody in the world able to deter them. They crossed the direct-attack-on-Iran Rubicon a year ago and suffered no consequences, only victories. 3. The same applies to the nuclear program itself. Iran cannot rebuild its broken program that took decades to build up under the constant threat of Israeli jets overflying at will, not to mention the justified paranoia that half their staff are working with Mossad for money. 4. Israel has almost no exposure to Hormuz. In fact, if Israeli leaders were Machiavellian—God forbid!—they would be very content to have Hormuz closed, or under threat of closure, forever. They also wouldn’t mind seeing the IRGC hobble on. They are not a threat to Israel much anymore, once that nuclear material is off the table, but only to their Arab neighbors. Most critically to Qatar, whose vast gas reserves are now entirely locked in until the crisis is over, at which point they need to decide whether to be vassals of the remnants of the IRGC or of their tribal rivals in Saudi Arabia. Israel will not cry for Qatar or Kuwait. If anything, this will lead to Abraham Accords expansion. Trump would like that and has all the cards on that issue. So the only crux is the remaining nuclear material, and not because Israel is actually concerned that what is likely to be the dust that escaped from the uranium gas containers under the huge pressure of bunker-busters. It is because the nuclear dust is Iran’s only card. Without it, the proxies and the missiles are useless. They are not even merely impotent threats; they are simply the guards standing outside an empty palace. For Netanyahu personally, the calculus might be slightly different. He is standing for election in 5 months, and while it’s quite a nice trick to be able to show up with Khamenei’s shrunken head on a pike, the fall of the Iranian regime would put him in a totally unavailable position. His share of the responsibility for the foreseeable calamity that surprised Israel three years before would be mitigated by his speech the next day, when he promised to overturn the Iranian axis. From an American perspective too, the same applies on nearly all those points, if not more so, and Trump’s incentives are pretty much entirely aligned with those of the US. The Hormuz issue is basically a wash for the USA, particularly over a multi-year period. For the Iranian people and the diaspora, 90% of whom hate the regime, the prospect of a deal might seem grim. Another Obama-esque lifeline, but they are wrong. The American and Israeli attacks were never going to end the regime. The people needed to rise up. And that is the reason the IRGC is desperately fighting to hold on to the useless remains of their uranium, because the threat of the potential of an Iranian nuke is the only insurance they had against foreign inteference. Now they will never be North Korea, which was their only plan for perpetual oppression with impunity. They wouldn’t have survived the uprising in January if they hadn’t posed a threat. The end of the nuclear program means that they will never become North Korea. That would have been the end of the dreams of the revolutionaries. They have a chance, just maybe not tomorrow. For the GCC countries, the roles are now reversed with Israel. They know they will never have peace until the IRGC is gone. Some can deal with it better than others; the UAE and Saudi Arabia are already building out their bypass pipelines that will make Hormuz irrelevant to them within a few years. Qatar is in much deeper trouble. The longer the status quo continues, the more peace with Israel is critical to them. So the attack on February 28 flipped the region on its head. If it ends in a deal that gets the nuclear material, the IRGC is doomed due to the losses it has already ensured, and all the new enemies it has made. The longer it limps on, the more its enemies will be bonded together, and the more strategically irrelevant it will become. Until, inevitably, it finally falls to its own people with the cover of all its enemies: i.e., everyone. If the deal comes to nothing, or was just a ruse, the Iranians will continue to collapse slowly under the crippling blockade and/or after more strikes. It might take years, but the end of the nukes make it inevitable.

Saul_Sadka's tweet photo. So much catastrophising and confusion. Let’s work it through:

Trump has set a final offer on the table with his minimum demands while pointing a gun at the IRGC’s temple: “Sign or die.”

The red line that Trump has declared openly for a while is what he calls the “nuclear dust.” And he is correct to have that as the only red line. If that is achieved, everything else will fall into place over time, and Trump will be able to present it as victory. If he compromises on that red line over the truce period, he will not be able to, though even still, degrading the IRGC in the way that it has been is actually a massive victory for the USA and Israel.

Let’s try to clear it up and understand the incentives of all the parties.

All the worst, most sinister IRGC figures were celebrating yesterday, which does indeed appear alarming, but recall: they are people who have been wrong about everything for 20 years.

First, from a purely Israeli strategic perspective, the only thing that matters in the negotiations with Iran is the nuclear material. Everything else is irrelevant by comparison. The proxies don’t matter, the missiles don’t matter, commitments from Iran don’t matter, Hormuz doesn’t matter to Israel at all. Why?

1. The proxies have largely been destroyed. They are reduced in strength by at least 90%. Hezbollah is now a “Lebanese people problem,” Hamas is a “Gazan people problem,” and the Houthis are an issue for Saudis and shippers. Any attempts by the IRGC to rebuild will never be able to match the countervailing ability of Israel to attrit those attempts.

2. The missiles Iran built up at vast expense have been exposed as useless against Israel without the nuclear tips they were built to carry. The brutal math of the rocket equation means that each of these extremely expensive, hard-to-move, and harder-to-hide missiles can bring one tonne of explosives to bear at most, and at levels of accuracy that make them useless except as terror weapons against civilians. Even by that metric, they fail, with Iran having to fire about 50 to kill a single Israeli civilian. They certainly lost far more members of their launch crews than the missiles managed to kill.

They have lost most, if not all, of their capacity to rebuild their program, and if they try, Israel has the proven ability to attrit their rebuilding efforts, and there is nobody in the world able to deter them. They crossed the direct-attack-on-Iran Rubicon a year ago and suffered no consequences, only victories.

3. The same applies to the nuclear program itself. Iran cannot rebuild its broken program that took decades to build up under the constant threat of Israeli jets overflying at will, not to mention the justified paranoia that half their staff are working with Mossad for money.

4. Israel has almost no exposure to Hormuz. In fact, if Israeli leaders were Machiavellian—God forbid!—they would be very content to have Hormuz closed, or under threat of closure, forever. They also wouldn’t mind seeing the IRGC hobble on. They are not a threat to Israel much anymore, once that nuclear material is off the table, but only to their Arab neighbors. Most critically to Qatar, whose vast gas reserves are now entirely locked in until the crisis is over, at which point they need to decide whether to be vassals of the remnants of the IRGC or of their tribal rivals in Saudi Arabia. Israel will not cry for Qatar or Kuwait. If anything, this will lead to Abraham Accords expansion. Trump would like that and has all the cards on that issue.

So the only crux is the remaining nuclear material, and not because Israel is actually concerned that what is likely to be the dust that escaped from the uranium gas containers under the huge pressure of bunker-busters. It is because the nuclear dust is Iran’s only card. Without it, the proxies and the missiles are useless. They are not even merely impotent threats; they are simply the guards standing outside an empty palace.

For Netanyahu personally, the calculus might be slightly different. He is standing for election in 5 months, and while it’s quite a nice trick to be able to show up with Khamenei’s shrunken head on a pike, the fall of the Iranian regime would put him in a totally unavailable position. His share of the responsibility for the foreseeable calamity that surprised Israel three years before would be mitigated by his speech the next day, when he promised to overturn the Iranian axis.

From an American perspective too, the same applies on nearly all those points, if not more so, and Trump’s incentives are pretty much entirely aligned with those of the US. The Hormuz issue is basically a wash for the USA, particularly over a multi-year period.

For the Iranian people and the diaspora, 90% of whom hate the regime, the prospect of a deal might seem grim. Another Obama-esque lifeline, but they are wrong. The American and Israeli attacks were never going to end the regime. The people needed to rise up. And that is the reason the IRGC is desperately fighting to hold on to the useless remains of their uranium, because the threat of the potential of an Iranian nuke is the only insurance they had against foreign inteference. Now they will never be North Korea, which was their only plan for perpetual oppression with impunity.

They wouldn’t have survived the uprising in January if they hadn’t posed a threat. The end of the nuclear program means that they will never become North Korea. That would have been the end of the dreams of the revolutionaries. They have a chance, just maybe not tomorrow.

For the GCC countries, the roles are now reversed with Israel. They know they will never have peace until the IRGC is gone. Some can deal with it better than others; the UAE and Saudi Arabia are already building out their bypass pipelines that will make Hormuz irrelevant to them within a few years.

Qatar is in much deeper trouble. The longer the status quo continues, the more peace with Israel is critical to them.

So the attack on February 28 flipped the region on its head. If it ends in a deal that gets the nuclear material, the IRGC is doomed due to the losses it has already ensured, and all the new enemies it has made. The longer it limps on, the more its enemies will be bonded together, and the more strategically irrelevant it will become. Until, inevitably, it finally falls to its own people with the cover of all its enemies: i.e., everyone.

If the deal comes to nothing, or was just a ruse, the Iranians will continue to collapse slowly under the crippling blockade and/or after more strikes. It might take years, but the end of the nukes make it inevitable.

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12 days ago

@GordoCDA Check out this video from 2018. I was brought to this three years ago as a Christian. It’s one reason I have no doubt this regime will eventually fall.

3 months ago

Prophesied on: May 12, 2018 A Prophetic Vision for Iran: Walls Falling & Revival Rising | Prophet Ch... https://t.co/lNemu6zs0U

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12 days ago

Posting again for those having doubts. Don’t worry about any deals Trump tries to strike.

3 months ago

Prophesied on: May 12, 2018 A Prophetic Vision for Iran: Walls Falling & Revival Rising | Prophet Ch... https://t.co/lNemu6zs0U

224

12 days ago

@BrettErickson28 @LarryWild2028 By prayer and faith. I’m a Christian and I have no doubt this will happen. How is up to God. It’s less than 5 minutes have a watch.

3 months ago

Prophesied on: May 12, 2018 A Prophetic Vision for Iran: Walls Falling & Revival Rising | Prophet Ch... https://t.co/lNemu6zs0U

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12 days ago

@LarryWild2028 @BrettErickson28 These lunatics will never honor a deal. you will find this out in God’s timing.

12 days ago

God will not abandon the Iranian people. My trust is in Him.