THE 15% BAND
Look at this chart.
59 races. Senate and governor.
States ordered from reddest to bluest in 2024.
The solid lines are 2024.
The dashed lines are 2026.
The shaded bands are what moved.
One formula fits all of it:
Republican 2026 = 0.85 × Trump 2024
Democrat 2026 = Harris 2024 + 0.15 × Trump 2024
For every 1,000 Trump points, 850 stayed Republican. 150 landed on the Democratic side.
The numbers:
Senate: Republicans kept ~85% of Trump’s share
Governor: ~86%
Variation explained: 88%
What makes it strange:
It didn’t matter how red the state was. Wyoming, Ohio, Illinois, Massachusetts: same 15% (p = 0.69). The Democratic gain was sized by Trump’s vote, not Harris’s. The Harris part is zero.
The 0.85 beat both standard election-swing models in every set of races.
Drop any single state and the multiplier stays between 0.846 and 0.853.
Why seats flipped:
At 0.85, any state where Trump got under about 58.5% falls below 50%. Texas, Kansas, Iowa, Ohio, South Carolina, North Carolina: all under that line. All flipped.
What this means:
Midterms are messy. This one isn’t. Two sets of races, different candidates, different campaigns, and the same 15% decrease almost everywhere.
A pattern this even demands answers at the ballot level: paper ballot hand counts, poll-book check-ins against votes counted, and voter files showing who actually turned out.
The numbers raise the question.
The ballots can answer it.
He knows. God willing somebody somewhere fixes this or we are doomed. Nobody from either side should approve of cheating. Even if it does not change the outcome. It has to stop now!
@DataRepublican It is not a question of winning - like almost all midterms Rs were going to lose. It is a question of scale. The scale is off similar to 2020. A Math genius needs to use AI to tackle the scale.
@DataRepublican They flood the early vote illegally bank the number and play catch while counting via fake ballots and machine manipulation. We designed age fraud for other nations - a Ponzi scheme. Data is junk in junk out. And that is how they make the fakery legit.
I think the American people would love for us all to shut up and just do our job. That starts with the Senate staying in session every day until January when Democrats take over. We owe it to the American people to get as much done as possible. Let’s Get to Work
🚨 JUST IN OVERNIGHT: Sec. Marco Rubio just stood beside President Trump at Mar-a-Lago and FULLY STOOD BEHIND his POTUS, making CLEAR he's not resigning
"It would have been very EASY to do what multiple presidents before him have done — which is ignore the Iran thing, leave it for the next guy."
"We cannot live in a world in which the most radical terroristic regime on the planet possesses a weapon of mass destruction."
"This president wasn't elected to IGNORE...He did it for you. Not for him, not for anybody else."
"I know he'll continue to do it. And that's why I'm so honored to be his Secretary of State." 🇺🇸
Glad Marco is staying around! He's got an overseas trip coming up
Remember that when Dems take over in January, they will go FULL obstruction mode on any Trump nominee. There is no other Marco who can get 99 Senate votes, and they will never confirm another Hegseth!
MARCO IS A PATRIOT. Stephen Miller is with Trump in FL too 🔥
They are going to dismantle the Republic, go after you Mr President with everything they have & everyone you love & they will go after everyone who believes in you. They will never let go of power. They have captured the election system. The blue wave was a lie & the vote patterns & numbers show it. You have been fighting all of America’s enemies, both foreign & domestic, who are working together. You have to fight your own party who are willing to cede power just to see you & your supporters destroyed. The question is if they will talk you out of doing anything about it - once again - or if you will stand for the truth & be bolder than ever before.