Cavan

[Eric Wallerstein @ericwallerstein]

when it’s clear that many people knew what was going on—whether in government(s), at nvidia, or in silicon valley broadly—it’s important to ask, “Why am I reading this now?”

[Cavan @CavanChiam]

@ohiain Right or wrong (because nobody can predict the future), what matters is we make money and (keep it).

Even JLaw makes a trade every few months, not all the time.

It's ok to stay in cash when we don't have an edge.

[Jurrien Timmer @TimmerFidelity]

The fundamentals for the SPW remain attractive as well, with the index trading at 16x n12m EPS and the payout (PO) growing faster than earnings (leaving a payout ratio of 74%, which is higher than the cap-weighted index.

[Calvin Cheng @calvinelcheng]

Ignore the media noise.

If Jensen Huang is sacked or forced to resign , it is because the US (especially Democrats) think he is a national security vulnerability.

Huang and some within the Trump administration have advocated looser controls to China. They argue it’s better to get the PRC dependant on US chips , than for PRC to develop their own chips and become self-sufficient.

This stance will now be viewed with suspicion by those who advocate full export-controls.

If Huang is susceptible to female wiles , then it’s a dangerous weakness.

The morality of extra marital affairs is irrelevant.

Both the US and PRC see the AI-race as existential. More existential than nuclear weapons.

Each side will do whatever it takes to win

[Cavan @CavanChiam]

@RealSimpleAriel @kunal00 $XLI is trying to make a recovery. $XLK may make a bounce from here to help push higher.

My base case was flows positive into year end (maybe till FOMC or Dec OpEx).

Because earnings haven't rolled over.

$SOXX might bounce up and down and base. Don't know how long it will take

[Select Committee on China @ChinaSelect]

Watch to learn how NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang’s romantic relationship with a Chinese spy and former Megaspeed executive affects the AI race and America’s national security. Congress must pass bipartisan export control legislation to protect America.

[Cavan @CavanChiam]

@KGInvests_ @Path21Mil But I'm not excited when pre market we're up too much. Usually (not always), algos start selling in gap ups.

We don't know for sure but maybe OpenAI also helped.

[Cavan @CavanChiam]

@KGInvests_ @Path21Mil This is by default a mean reversion. Anything oversold will bounce.

But, the good thing is even after CPI ytd, $RSP is holding strong.

Means, markets betting Fed to hike once and sound hawkish, but constrained to hike a lot.

Inflation sticky but not accelerating.

[Cavan @CavanChiam]

@KGInvests_ Bro you shitposting or you really don't know?

[Cavan @CavanChiam]

@ariaradnia But surprisingly her picks are not bad or good.
$ASML can't go wrong over long term (monopoly in lithography)
$RKLB (next best rocket launcher)
$SPCX (no need to say more)
$FIX (backbone of data centers)
$ASTS (also a good pick at low prices)

So it's just timing them.

[Wall St Engine @wallstengine]

SOUTH KOREA 🇰🇷 SEMICONDUCTOR EXPORTS SURGE 331.2% Y/Y IN THE FIRST 10 DAYS OF NOVEMBER

[Lin @Speculator_io]

This is how most people blow up their accounts:

1. FOMOs in at the absolute top
2. Watches it crash
3. Calls it a generational buying opportunity
4. Doubles down because "it can't go any lower"
5. But the dip keeps dipping
6. Panic-sells at the absolute bottom
7. Repeat

[Jay Yoon @jaysyoon]

So, we have 1) strong Anthropic Oct ARR, 2) strong OpenAI Q3 results, and 3) Anthropic raising its valuation above $1.5T due to overwhelming investor demand. Seems like the stage is set for a nice rally here in the AI trade.

[Oliver | MMMT Wealth (CPA) @MMMTwealth]

Pretty happy I sold out of $HIMS (for a slight loss) earlier this year.

Numbers look pretty disastrous so far.

The opportunity remains but so far they're not taking advantage of the opportunity at all.

Now trades ~16x EBITDA for EBITDA shrinking ~15%.

Doesn't seem like an opportunity right now.

[Cavan @CavanChiam]

@AnnaEconomist Amazing! Sounds like Warsh.

[amit @amitisinvesting]

OCTOBER CPI COMES IN HOTTER THAN EXPECTED:

- Headline at 0.4% MoM vs 0.3% expected

- Core at 0.3% MoM vs 0.2% expected

We don’t get YoY because of the government shutdown last year.

Shelter was up and accounted for 30% of the increase.

December rate hike odds now 98.8%.

[Cavan @CavanChiam]

@KGInvests_ @PennyStockInc @vchen91745 Non US market yes... they stay flat for a long time. Check $ACWX ranging for almost 18 years since 2008 crash, before making new highs last year.

[Cavan @CavanChiam]

@KGInvests_ Looking more like a Santa rally, unless the Fed spoils it with a 50bps hike.

[Andreas Steno Larsen @AndreasSteno]

Inflation is now coming down fast! Across energy products, shipping, insurance and so on..

May be a really big thing for financial conditions in 2027

[Cavan @CavanChiam]

@ohiain Agreed.

But $RSP reclaiming 10/20 EMA with $IWM seems like my original thesis where rest of stonk world grind higher into year end.

As long as no sudden macro shock or CPI accelerating (not base case).

Again we follow price.