Choomiechoo

Wants planet Earth to be habitable for a long time, but we need a backup plan. Proud dad of 2 girls and a boy. Happy Y and R1T owner.

[Choomiechoo @cchoomngern]

@ManOnThePen Looking spiffy these days, I like it! Not that I didn’t like it before, but wanted to comment.

[Choomiechoo @cchoomngern]

@Aktieland What’s the short interest on $NVO? This might be a good buying opportunity for a squeeze if it’s high.

[Choomiechoo @cchoomngern]

@investseekers I see flat to negative revenue up to 2030 as the company slashes their pricing that will not offset their volume growth. This will cause a deterioration of net margins. I hope an M&A will reverse this trend. Even the oral takes a lot of API since it’s 10x required vs pens.

[Choomiechoo @cchoomngern]

@investseekers They need to consider $KLRA

[Choomiechoo @cchoomngern]

@Aktieland For me, its more at the product level. My dad uses Novo’s Oz bc of the cardiovascular benefits, it has lowered his a1c and some weight loss. But he prefers tirzepatide, but due to his formulary, it’s not covered. I use Zepbound with insurance coverage. I own both LLY NVO.

[Choomiechoo @cchoomngern]

@investseekers The issue is trying to sell what is clearly an inferior product when the competitor can still price 20-25% above yours and you still lose market share. This can change as the pipeline/acquisitions happen.

[Choomiechoo @cchoomngern]

@Aktieland I’m an investor in both stocks and a user of Zep with many people I know personally on GLP1s. The ones on Novo’s product, like my dad and family, are using them because it’s covered by insurance. If given the choice, they’re going to jump ship to the better one. Grateful for NVO

[Choomiechoo @cchoomngern]

@ManOnThePen Exactly this! Spot on, I’ve been thinking what’s keeping NVO behind and this sums it up.

[Choomiechoo @cchoomngern]

@investseekers Both products are gateway medications to Zepbound.

[Choomiechoo @cchoomngern]

@Aktieland Would be great for Novo to show growth. I just don’t see it in the next 24-36 months with pricing compression offset by hopefully volume increase and cagrasema. I really can’t wait to see the bridge data, but in my small cohort, maybe 1 out of 8 is choosing Wegovy over Zep.

[Choomiechoo @cchoomngern]

@Aktieland More like $35. I’m not convinced on growth since they’ll need to heavily discount their Sema product to remain competitive. And since cagrasema isn’t superior to tirzepatide, they’ll come out swinging with a lower price too. And cagrasema’s pens are complex which hit margins.

[Choomiechoo @cchoomngern]

@Aktieland Price war, aka race to the bottom. Not a good thing imo… they should create an ecosystem that supports patients, especially with cagrasema around the corner…

[Choomiechoo @cchoomngern]

@investseekers The exception isn’t the rule. And we’ve already read that injectables are doing much better than oral. I’ll concede Wegovy pills > Foundayo, but only if the few fearful of the shot. Wegovy oral may just be a gateway drug to Zepbound, especially if paid by cash or insurance.

[Choomiechoo @cchoomngern]

@investseekers I keep circling back to the product. The only reason why people are choosing Wegovy over Zepbound is because of insurance. If given options or paying cash, patients are flocking to Eli’s product. We’re going to see a rude awakening when the Medicare bridge breakout comes out.

[Choomiechoo @cchoomngern]

@Aktieland My opinion, today yes. But position cagrasema at a price point where its cheaper thank Zepbound by 10% AND low enough for formulary adoption, that’s where Novo can shine. Its all about product performance and cagrasema is close. Reta is not a factor and a specialty.

[Choomiechoo @cchoomngern]

@Aktieland Can’t wait to see how many oral Wegovy users shift to Zepbound… end of day, Zepbound is superior for 9 out of 10 people. Hopefully cagrisema changes that.

[Choomiechoo @cchoomngern]

@HappyCanadian55 @ManOnThePen And yet Grey wouldn’t exist if they didn’t have a patent to copy…

[Choomiechoo @cchoomngern]

@HappyCanadian55 @ManOnThePen Correct on Lilly on primary motives except it is helping people and making profit. Grey market vendors not in it to help people either, just copy, sell and make profit. Again, I think we’re just trying to justify copying and stealing IP at the end of day.