There is a prevailing narrative in the market suggesting that SpaceX $SPCX will face massive selling pressure from employees and early investors once the lockup period expires. Personally, I can confidently say that those who hold this view fundamentally misunderstand SpaceX's liquidity history. Over the past few years, SpaceX has consistently conducted semi-annual tender offers, allowing early investors and insiders to monetize their shares. While I am not suggesting there will be absolutely no selling pressure post-lockup, it will likely be far more subdued than the market anticipates.
Furthermore, based on my conversations with several early SpaceX investors—myself included—the vast majority have no intention of selling. The reasons are straightforward:
1. Long-Term Conviction & Pre-Filtered Investor Base
Early investors are highly anticipating the IPO because we clearly recognize that going public is just the beginning, not the finish line. When we initially invested, we did not expect an IPO to happen this quickly; most of us were already mentally prepared for a long-term holding period. Through multiple rounds of historical tender offers, investors seeking short-term liquidity have already exited. Consequently, those who remain today are overwhelmingly long-term, high-conviction holders.
2. Liquidity Alternatives (Securities-Backed Lending)
Post-IPO, selling shares is not the only way to generate liquidity. A far better alternative is to borrow against the equity position—for instance, utilizing a Securities-Backed Line of Credit (SBLOC/SBL) with investment banks. This is a standard financial strategy in the institutional world, though it remains a blind spot for retail investors who lack experience in private equity.
Okay, now listen.
Today is quite obviously a day of $SPCX accumulation by institutions. If you’re an experienced investor, you can easily tell by the volume and price action.
If you’re serious about investing in SpaceX, the first thing you need to do is stop dreaming about unrealistic entry prices like $70 or so. Do your own research to understand the company, listen to the latest earnings calls, and not just check X or YouTubers for some stupid random numbers.
We posted our second quarter 2026 financial and operational results → https://t.co/YCRzq6gSV3
Q2 highlights:
- Demonstrated the power of extreme vertical integration, delivering revenue growth of 92% year-over-year across Space, Connectivity, and AI
- Completed two successful Starship V3 flight tests in the past 90 days, advancing towards full and rapid reusability
- Closed multiple industry-leading Cloud Services Agreements resulting in $14.1 billion of contracted sales
- Announced agreement to acquire Cursor for $60 billion to accelerate the AI enterprise opportunity
- Released our most powerful AI model yet with Grok 4.5 in July
- Delivered 66% revenue and 79% income from operations growth year-over-year for the Connectivity segment, driven by a doubling of Starlink Subscribers and continued momentum in Enterprise & Government
- Awarded over $6 billion in multi-year U.S. government contracts for Starshield
As compared to the same quarter last year:
- Revenues of $7.8 billion, up 92% from $4.1 billion
- Net loss of $541 million, an improvement of $467 million from net loss of $1.0 billion
- Adjusted EBITDA of $3.5 billion, up 191% from $1.2 billion
Thank you to the SpaceX team, and all our customers and investors for a great quarter!
Terafab is so big that calling it a factory almost feels wrong
The scale is unlike anything the world has ever seen
At full scale, it is planned to cover 100 million square feet:
• Nearly 3.6 square miles
• Around 2,300 acres
• Roughly 10× the size of Giga Texas
• A target of producing 1 TW of AI compute capacity every year
It will bring logic, memory and advanced packaging together in one place to produce chips for Tesla vehicles, Optimus and SpaceX’s orbital compute ambitions
No existing chip fab is even remotely in the same physical category
It is the new beginning of manufacturing intelligence at a scale the world has never seen before