Celestine Chukumba Ph.D. | Economist

Celestine O. Chukumba Ph.D. #economist #chukumba -founder @intersrchmedia @torycapital #notredame #rutgers #newschool grad

[Celestine Chukumba Ph.D. | Economist @celestichukumba]

The #unemployment rate continues to behave as I predicted - the data is no longer negative-mixed ➡️it is largely negative - I called it an #inflectionsummer last year - no datapoints are better #economist #blackeconomist

[Celestine Chukumba Ph.D. | Economist @celestichukumba]

Some serious trolling… but whatever - can’t keep trading with somebody who doesn’t trade back - that takes away #comparativeadvantage

[Celestine Chukumba Ph.D. | Economist @celestichukumba]

We need clarity on #trump #tariffs - #economists

[Celestine Chukumba Ph.D. | Economist @celestichukumba]

Hope you listened #dontbuythedip

[Celestine Chukumba Ph.D. | Economist @celestichukumba]

My call for #trump to win early texted to my grade school buddy at 11:50 AM Tuesday morning, I moved from #NJ to #GA due to radical liberals and it was easy to 👀

[Celestine Chukumba Ph.D. | Economist @celestichukumba]

When I called 2023 an #inflectionsummer 🥸many scoffed at me but now as we look at the data in 2024, it’s quite clear. We are in a housing downtown. That was NOT a bottom #economist #chukumba

[Celestine Chukumba Ph.D. | Economist @celestichukumba]

Last year I predicted unemployment would rise to 4%. Here we are: and the numbers look 🤪- the housing market has NOT bottomed and clearly 2023 was an #inflectionsummer - #economist #chukumba

[Celestine Chukumba Ph.D. | Economist @celestichukumba]

Last summer when unemployment was at 3.5 % I predicted an increase - to 4% - getting a much closer 👍🏾 getting my clients prepared #Unemployment #Chukumba #Economist

[Celestine Chukumba Ph.D. | Economist @celestichukumba]

I expected this hot inflation that we continue to see - 3 month average 🚀 - see prior posts - annualized inflation more like 7+% right now - fed could even hike here - no rate cuts - transitory inflation crowd looking for - new inflation via poor anchored expectations

[Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm]

US CPI inflation came in hotter than expected for the third straight month ... and the result is continued price pressure on consumers, which hits the poor hardest, and a sharp market reaction.
Both headline and core prices rose 0.4%, bringing the annual measures to 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively.
Services led the way, but they were far from the only drivers of the hotter inflation.
Yields immediately surged higher, with the 2-year currently trading above 4.92% and the 10-year nearing 4.50%.
The market is now pricing less than two Federal Reserve cuts this year as it takes another step in the "later and fewer" direction for the excessively dependent Fed.
The major stock futures indices are down over 1%, and the dollar is stronger.
All this puts the Fed in quite a tricky position -- one in which it should take a holistic view of what's ahead for the economy as a whole. But will it?

#economy #inflation #markets #FederalReserve

[Paul Krugman @paulkrugman]

The war on inflation is over. We won, at very little cost

[Celestine Chukumba Ph.D. | Economist @celestichukumba]

Last summer when unemployment was at 3.5 % I predicted an increase - to 4% - getting a much closer 👍🏾 getting my clients prepared #Unemployment #Chukumba #Economist

[Celestine Chukumba Ph.D. | Economist @celestichukumba]

That pesky inflation rears its ugly head again. Remember last week - “those surveyed” were off on the jobs number by around 100% #economist #chukumba

[Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla]

“.. There is no return to 2% inflation without a recession of some sort. The January #CPI data, and more critically the acceleration of service inflation since the economy skirted recession last spring, tell us just that.”

- @TS_Lombard

[Celestine Chukumba Ph.D. | Economist @celestichukumba]

New York Community Bank -Significant Commercial Real Estate exposure here- they can’t be the only one😉 - this is what the fed saw last meeting that caused the sharp pivot - consider - Powell doesn’t want attention in November - but jobs market still higher than expected -

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: New York Community Bank stock, $NYCB, the bank that acquired the collapsed Signature Bank, extends losses to 45% in 2 days.

This comes after the bank reported a Q4 loss of $260 million while a gain of $250 million was expected.

The bank also reduced their dividend by 70% "to meet regulatory requirements."

The stock just hit its lowest level since August 2000.

[Unicus @UnicusResearch]

🚨🚩 $C plans 20,000 job cuts as it reports worst quarter in 15 years.

1. Bank reports a $1.8bn fourth-quarter loss after taking $4bn in one-off charges.

2. Even excluding one-off charges and expenses, quarterly earnings still fell more than 20% from the 4Q of 2022

[Investing.com @Investingcom]

⚠️BREAKING:

*U.S CPI 0.3% M/M, EXP. 0.2%
*U.S. CPI CORE 0.3% M/M, EXP. 0.3%

*U.S. CPI 3.4% Y/Y, EXP. 3.2%,
*U.S. CPI CORE 3.9% Y/Y, EXP. 3.8%

*U.S. JOBLESS CLAIMS RISE 202K, EXP. 210K

🇺🇸🇺🇸

[Celestine Chukumba Ph.D. | Economist @celestichukumba]

But the talking heads said mortgage demand would 🚀 when rates ⬇️❓ if they didn’t sell 🏠 last summer - then it’s going to be even harder when more inventory hits #inflectionsummer - funny in June 23’ some thought the housing market had bottomed 😂 #economist #chukumba

[Celestine Chukumba Ph.D. | Economist @celestichukumba]

2024 may be the year Main Street and Wall Street see 👀 to 👀 -more obvious the consumer is worn out, luxury📉 and housing bottom isn’t over - that’s good #fed pivot ⏱️: they see #inflectionsummer trends NOT 🛑 - no longer mixed NASDAQ 14,645 now

[Celestine Chukumba Ph.D. | Economist @celestichukumba]

This is when things go from mixed data to mixed negative and historic "institutions" end up going bankrupt and nameless practically overnight https://t.co/xgibeO3bvg #economist #chukumba

[Celestine Chukumba Ph.D. | Economist @celestichukumba]

That time is now - #cz and #sbf had #ronaldo advertising💰 overnight - 👀that one before 😉 #economist #chukumba #thesethingstaketime

[Celestine Chukumba Ph.D. | Economist @celestichukumba]

The housing market has “not” bottomed - #economist #chukumba - this was my call a few weeks ago - it was an #inflectionsummer after all