Looking to trade on Polymarket? Here's the fine print: if your bet gets disputed (eg, because it's unclear if an agreement is a "ceasefire") the decision is up to anonymous holders of UMA, a digital token, who may have conflicts of interest. With @skesslr https://t.co/KNbO9UjZWt
When a @Polymarket result is disputed, it goes to a decentralized panel of judges.
But the system is rife with conflicts: ~60% of judges were linked to Polymarket accounts, and in nearly 20% of disputes we found judges tied to bets on the very markets they were deciding.
w/ @aosipovich
https://t.co/9vTGSMmFcn
"In one meeting, Trump passed a stack of news articles he and other senior officials thought threatened national security to Blanche with a sticky note on it that said 'treason,' another administration official said." https://t.co/n06XSgZhcN
Who wins on prediction markets? High-frequency traders.
We examined 1.6 million Polymarket wallets and found that the top 0.1% highest-frequency traders are by far the most likely to turn a profit.
One of those traders is Jonathan Stall-Ryan (pictured), whose firm of around a dozen college students turned $1,000 into seven figures. They're one of the top crypto traders on Kalshi and make tens of thousands of trades a day.
Join our team and write about the people and forces shaping markets. Huge bets on AI. Macro trades affecting nations. Succession dramas. Individual investors making exotic wagers. Requires first-class reporting and the writing to do it justice. https://t.co/qt8uh4eGAk
NEW: A fraternity that counts Jeff Bezos' stepson as a member under investigation for insider trading. Polymarket-branded beer pong sets. $20,000 in funding to open a prediction market club.
Here's how prediction markets are gaining ground on campus.
https://t.co/046UIRoXaZ
“We know this shouldn’t be allowed,” said one brother involved. “People are like, is this insider information? Is this regulated? You feel like you’re doing something you’re not supposed to. It feels like someone should stop you.”
Must-read: https://t.co/9mL0j6x11L
The Justice Department has withheld thousands of documents from the Epstein files, including FBI documents that detailed a woman’s unverified allegations of sexual misconduct against President Trump, according to a review by WSJ. https://t.co/eHyb4LcnRs
Did Polymarket finally go too far? It's just removed a betting market on nuclear detonation, amid intense debates over the ethics of war betting and the risks of insider trading on military strikes. From @ceostroff https://t.co/0LCgFxwJ1M
New: After a @WSJ analysis identified more than 40,000 files that appeared to be missing from the DOJ’s website, a DOJ spokeswoman said that “47,635 files were offline for further review and should be ready for re-production by the end of the week.”
https://t.co/mWli4A2S6o
New: After a @WSJ analysis identified more than 40,000 files that appeared to be missing from the DOJ’s website, a DOJ spokeswoman said that “47,635 files were offline for further review and should be ready for re-production by the end of the week.”
https://t.co/mWli4A2S6o
Kalshi has posted its first disciplinary actions, against a former longshot candidate the California governor and a MrBeast employee. My colleague @kryshur reports on the brave new world of prediction-market enforcement actions https://t.co/LVdZEPdQ9u
It's one of the wackiest corners of prediction markets: "mentions", where traders bet on phrases that politicians and celebrities say at upcoming events. Will the words "insider trading" and "manipulation" appear in this story? With @ceostroff@ByKLong https://t.co/eKv8m9en1j
On May 3, 2016, Epstein sent an email to Kathy Ruemmler. He wrote that Jean-Luc Brunel was planning to go to prosecutors the following week and one of Brunel’s friends had “asked for 3 million dollars so that Jean Luc would not go in.”
w/@khadeeja_safdar
https://t.co/Fv2xMGZLlt