CER Trader

Sharing views on faith, markets, politics, and life

[CER Trader @cer_trader]

Man (is) appointed mortal sorrow; (but) the blessed God shall come down teaching (that) His death shall bring (the) despairing rest

[Bible 365 @Bible365_]

The LORD is my light and my salvation; whom shall I fear? the LORD is the strength of my life; of whom shall I be afraid? — Psalm 27:1

[CER Trader @cer_trader]

The Lord is my light and my salvation;
Whom shall I fear?
The Lord is the strength of my life;
Of whom shall I be afraid?

Psalm 27:1 NKJV

[CER Trader @cer_trader]

We are looking at what Jesus described in Matthew 24 as the beginning of the birth pains

This is becoming clearer by the day

Wars, rumors of wars, pestilences, earthquakes and now famine

Put your faith in Christ today! He’s coming soon

And you will hear of wars and rumors of wars. See that you are not alarmed, for this must take place, but the end is not yet. 7 For nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom, and there will be famines and earthquakes in various places. All these are but the beginning of the birth pains. - Matthew 24:6-8 ESV

[CER Trader @cer_trader]

@squawkshawn @jbulldogs4 The timing is important

Israel were not a nation until 1948 and they are a key part of end times prophecy

[CER Trader @cer_trader]

News calendar for the week

CPI on Friday is the big one but the 10Y note auction on Wednesday could also be interesting

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Key Events This Week:

1. US Markets Closed, Labor Day - Monday

2. US 10Y Note Auction - Wednesday

3. August PPI Inflation data - Thursday

4. August Existing Home Sales data - Thursday

5. August CPI Inflation data - Friday

6. September MI Inflation Expectations data - Friday

7. September MI Consumer Sentiment data - Friday

This marks the final week of inflation data before the September Fed meeting.

[CER Trader @cer_trader]

Exactly right

Many psychological issues in trading can be fixed by backtesting and collecting data on your model

When everything is predetermined in advance (entry and exit, position size, trade management), many of these issues reside

Think of yourself as an operator with one goal in mind: execute the system according to the predetermined rules

[Sir Pickle @SirPickle_]

Your psychology issues are simply unaddressed technical issues in your system.

You feel stressed in a trade because you don’t have a clear rule on when to go breakeven.

You revenge trade because you don’t actually trust your models edge.

You fomo because you don’t know what you’re looking for.

Your emotions are symptoms of a deficiency in your process.

Fix the process
have clear guidelines
and you fix your psychology issues.

[CER Trader @cer_trader]

True

Trading must be boring and focused on following a pre-determined process

[Fortune MMXM @FortuneMMXM]

Over 7billion people don't know this truth

[CER Trader @cer_trader]

Once you’ve found your model, block out the noise

Focus on executing it and don’t care what anyone else is doing, how much they’re making or what they’re trading

It’s irrelevant. Focus on you and your model

[Scott Roberts @ScottRoberts]

From Genesis to Revelation, the entire Bible points to one Person: Jesus Christ.

Here is how He is revealed in all 66 books.

Genesis (Seed of the Woman)
Exodus (Passover Lamb)
Leviticus (Our Great High Priest)
Numbers (The Bronze Serpent Lifted Up)
Deuteronomy (The Prophet Like Moses)
Joshua (Captain of the Lord's Army)
Judges (The True Deliverer)
Ruth (Our Kinsman Redeemer)
1 Samuel (The Anointed King)
2 Samuel (The Son of David)
1 Kings (The Righteous King)
2 Kings (The Restoring King)
1 Chronicles (The Promised King)
2 Chronicles (The King Who Reigns Forever)
Ezra (The Faithful Scribe)
Nehemiah (The Rebuilder of the Broken)
Esther (The Savior of His People)
Job (Our Living Redeemer)
Psalms (The Shepherd King)
Proverbs (The Wisdom of God)
Ecclesiastes (The Meaning of Life)
Song of Solomon (The Bridegroom)
Isaiah (The Suffering Servant)
Jeremiah (The Righteous Branch)
Lamentations (The Man of Sorrows)
Ezekiel (The Good Shepherd)
Daniel (The Son of Man)
Hosea (The Faithful Husband)
Joel (The One Who Pours Out the Spirit)
Amos (The Restorer of David's Tent)
Obadiah (The Judge of the Nations)
Jonah (The Risen Prophet)
Micah (The Ruler from Bethlehem)
Nahum (The Avenger of His People)
Habakkuk (The Holy One)
Zephaniah (The Mighty One Who Saves)
Haggai (The Desire of All Nations)
Zechariah (The Pierced King)
Malachi (The Son of Righteousness)
Matthew (The King of the Jews)
Mark (The Servant of the Lord)
Luke (The Son of Man)
John (The Son of God)
Acts (The Ascended Lord)
Romans (Our Justification)
1 Corinthians (Our Resurrection)
2 Corinthians (Our Reconciliation)
Galatians (Our Liberty)
Ephesians (Head of the Church)
Philippians (Our Joy)
Colossians (The Image of the Invisible God)
1 Thessalonians (Our Coming King)
2 Thessalonians (The Righteous Judge)
1 Timothy (The One Mediator)
2 Timothy (The Faithful Lord)
Titus (Our Blessed Hope)
Philemon (The Friend of Sinners)
Hebrews (Our Great High Priest)
James (The Lord of Glory)
1 Peter (The Chief Shepherd)
2 Peter (The Lord of Glory)
1 John (The Word of Life)
2 John (The Truth)
3 John (The Faithful One)
Jude (The Lord Who Comes With Ten Thousands)
Revelation (King of Kings and Lord of Lords)

[CER Trader @cer_trader]

I like this quote:

“Trading is a game of breakeven for 80% of trades with 15% paying bills and perhaps 1-5% actually creating the Wizards…”

Easy to forget sometimes but it really grounds you in the realities of trading

Great post 👏🏼

[THE SHORT BEAR @TheShortBear]

I think a real point people are missing with pyramiding is the fact that the best trades usually go without offering much of an entry, either you are in or often missing.

Furthermore the best trades don’t have one leg but often 3-5, they don’t just pop and die.

Pyramiding builds upon that understanding to exponentially size into an idea that presents those top odds.

It maximizes the overall expectancy of the trade and the linked low variance/volatility along the path of those best opportunities. Measured as total expected return vs volatility to achieve the target.

It maximizes the certainty about winrate at the cost of the buffer by using tight structural builds along the path and by maintaining a strong average set by the original anchor.

A balance between win rate off of the average, using the buffer, RR along the path both on the overall trade and the singular adds along the path that combine into one bigger trade.

The overall cost is win rate in the end, but one that lowers it marginally vs the gains it generates on the winners.

All in all the idea being being big on the best ideas with the most anticipated alpha rather than missing, too small and having little chance to pay for mistakes.

Trading is a game of breakeven for 80% of trades with 15% paying bills and perhaps 1-5% actually creating the Wizards… Make sure to find a way to create the hockey stick chart.

[The Liquidator⟿🥷🏿 @Liquidity_Thry]

"You're competing against yourself" — take a minute to listen to ICT speak.

⟿🥷🏻

[CER Trader @cer_trader]

@HormuzLetter This + the super El Niño that is expected to be one of the strongest in history

Volatile times ahead for the commodities

[Kitt @ICT_Concepts]

Quit porn = energy back
Quit alcohol = clarity back
Quit weed = focus back
Train daily = confidence back
Keep your word = respect back

Live an intentional life
Reclaim control

[CER Trader @cer_trader]

Top ticked minutes before the Putin news about Ukraine hit the tape

Gotta love the NQ 🙂

[CER Trader @cer_trader]

Partials always pay

And they also help in managing the trade psychologically

[CER Trader @cer_trader]

@I_Am_The_ICT Bullish in the Fall until Spring after SMT and shift in MS confirmed

[CER Trader @cer_trader]

A note for this week

[ICTstudent-Telugu @DisciplineICT_K]

ICT Note Jackson Hole Symposium Week

During Jackson Hole week, especially Day -1, Day -2 and Day -3:

• Don’t try to outsmart the market.
• Identify an easy, low-threshold level to take your first partial.
• Expect fast price delivery and sharp retracements.
• A strong low-to-high run can completely overlap itself.
• Trailing your stop too aggressively can turn a great trade into a scratch or loss.

[CER Trader @cer_trader]

Control your exposure to the market

Without a model and rules to follow, everything is a potential trade

It may work out favorably sometimes

Other times, you will get chopped up

[CER Trader @cer_trader]

Focus on developing and backtesting one model with clearly defined rules

Prove that it has an edge

Then apply those rules consistently in live price action

That’s how consistency is found