Francesco Cucinotta #Bitcoin

Satellite Specialist | Entrepreneur | Wholesales Expert for MNOs | Finance Enthusiast
#Telecommunications #Satellite #Entrepreneurship #Finance #Bitcoin

[Francesco Cucinotta #Bitcoin @cesconobrasil]

@mont_py @dotkrueger @GrantCardone I’ve asked a simple question : Name another model that gives you a regime framework + growth trajectory with R² > 0.95 across 15 years on any asset.

[Francesco Cucinotta #Bitcoin @cesconobrasil]

“Wide bands” — yet in 15 years and 6 orders of magnitude, BTC has never broken below the lower band. Not once. That’s not a loose model, that’s a floor that held through Mt. Gox, China bans, Covid, FTX, everything.
The bands aren’t arbitrary — they’re std devs from log-log residuals. The data sets the width, not the modeler.
And the center line? ~30% CAGR baked into the structure. Name another model that gives you a regime framework + growth trajectory with R² > 0.95 across 15 years on any asset. I’ll wait.

[Francesco Cucinotta #Bitcoin @cesconobrasil]

“BTC > 0 is also a model” — sure, with infinite confidence bands and zero predictive power.
The Power Law constrains price within a narrow log corridor across 15 years and 6 orders of magnitude, with a high R².
Precision ≠ point prediction. The real test of a model is falsifiability. “BTC > 0” can’t be proven wrong. The Power Law can — if price durably breaks the corridor, the model is dead.
That’s exactly what gives it value.

[Francesco Cucinotta #Bitcoin @cesconobrasil]

@dotkrueger @GrantCardone It is cheap, true, but it can also get cheaper relative to the power law before the mean reversion!

[Francesco Cucinotta #Bitcoin @cesconobrasil]

Partially agree on short-term headwinds — the Warsh transition (May 15) + March confirmation hearings create uncertainty.
But “mean reversion” doesn’t apply to BTC the way it does to equities. Power Law models show BTC is structurally trending — it doesn’t revert to a mean, it builds new floors.
Also worth noting: Warsh actually wants lower rates AND believes AI-driven productivity is deflationary. That’s not bearish for BTC at all once he’s in.
The catalyst isn’t missing — it’s just not here yet.

[Francesco Cucinotta #Bitcoin @cesconobrasil]

@saylordocs @grok It is pointless to do such a thing when you write a prompt like this: Grok searches the internet for information and interprets it as such. You have to tell Grok to think by himself without looking on the internet and forecast it.

[Francesco Cucinotta #Bitcoin @cesconobrasil]

@MiningTk Excellente observation. Si cela peut appuyer, j’ai plusieurs PUT à 35 $ et 32 $ sur IBIT. Le but ici est de se placer avant que Kevin Hassett ne prenne les rênes de la Fed.

[Francesco Cucinotta #Bitcoin @cesconobrasil]

Bitcoin won't reach $1M as long as the market is dominated by degenerate 10x–40x leverage and cascade liquidation mechanics. The path to $1M requires mature, spot-driven institutional adoption — which is already underway through ETFs. Once the speculative leverage-to-spot ratio shrinks, the price discovery becomes organic and sustainable.

[Francesco Cucinotta #Bitcoin @cesconobrasil]

Bitcoin won't reach $1M as long as the market is dominated by degenerate 10x–40x leverage and cascade liquidation mechanics. The path to $1M requires mature, spot-driven institutional adoption which is already underway through ETFs. Once the speculative leverage-to-spot ratio shrinks, the price discovery becomes organic and sustainable.

[Francesco Cucinotta #Bitcoin @cesconobrasil]

@Vix184

[Francesco Cucinotta #Bitcoin @cesconobrasil]

@MiningTk 👏👏

[Francesco Cucinotta #Bitcoin @cesconobrasil]

@MiningTk Fully prepared 😂

[Francesco Cucinotta #Bitcoin @cesconobrasil]

@CryptoNobler So what’s Bitcoin future?

[Francesco Cucinotta #Bitcoin @cesconobrasil]

@Giovann35084111 It’s more selling puts now!

[Francesco Cucinotta #Bitcoin @cesconobrasil]

BTC hit $72.8K — 40% off ATH. Everyone screams crypto winter.

Meanwhile, 8 bottom signals just aligned simultaneously:

✅ Price = miner cash cost ($74.6K)
✅ Hashrate capitulation (-25%)
✅ $2.56B liquidated in 24h
✅ Peak bearish sentiment
✅ CME gap open at $82K
✅ Options skew favors upside
✅ BTC/Gold correlation at -0.78 (every prior extreme = major rally)
✅ New whale accumulation at ALL-TIME HIGH ($120B+)

Could we go lower? Yes.
35% — Bottom already in ($72-75K)
45% — One last flush to $60-68K
20% — Systemic macro crisis pushes sub-$60K
But in ALL scenarios, we’re in the bottom ZONE. The asymmetry is massive.

Weak hands sell. Whales buy. The transfer of wealth is happening now.

[Francesco Cucinotta #Bitcoin @cesconobrasil]

@jv_finance 😅 Obvious! I meant: in the past 10 years of observation, has this triggered any reversion?

[Francesco Cucinotta #Bitcoin @cesconobrasil]

@TrendingBitcoin @grok when was it recorded?

[Francesco Cucinotta #Bitcoin @cesconobrasil]

@paoloardoino 👏🏼 Orgoglioso di essere italiano. Spacca tutto!