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🏀 NBA Betting Card Jan 3rd Recap 🧹
✅ Kawhi Leonard Under 22.5 FGA -135
✅ Collin Sexton Over 12.5 Pts -115
✅💎 LaMelo Ball Under 13.5 RA -130
✅💎 .75u Paul George Over 14.5 Pts -125
✅💎 RJ Barrett Over 14.5 Pts -115
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🏀 Kawhi Leonard Under 22.5 FGA (1.74) #ClipperNation
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Leonard has stayed under this line in 17/23 games this season (74%). With Ivica Zubac back from injury, the hit rate becomes even worse: Kawhi went under in 15/18 games with Zubac active (83%), averaging 18.8 FGA.
Historically, this is also a tough spot. Kawhi has attempted fewer than 20 shots in all 4 matchups since 2021 against Celtics (15, 16, 12, 19). On top of that, Boston ranks as the 9th-best defense against small forwards.
When facing top-12 SF defenses, his shot volume has consistently stayed in check:
❌ 20 FGA vs Portland (41 minutes)
❌ 17 FGA vs Oklahoma (32 minutes)
❌ 17 FGA vs Minnesota (31 minutes)
❌ 20 FGA vs Dallas (29 minutes)
❌ 17 FGA vs Golden State (31 minutes)
❌ 21 FGA vs Portland (35 minutes)
He failed to clear this line in 6/6 games, averaging just 20.3 FGA per/36. Expanding the sample, Kawhi has also stayed under in 11/11 games against top-23 SF defenses when Zubac is on the floor, with an even lower 18.4 FGA per/36.
This matchup features the two slowest-paced teams in the league, and Leonard is expected to draw Boston’s best wing defender, Jaylen Brown. Since being traded to the Clippers in 2019–20, Kawhi has never exceeded 20 FGA in vs Brown (15, 16, 12, 20). Even during his peak with Toronto in 2019, his volume still dipped in those matchups (15, 19).
I like Kawhi and wouldn’t be surprised if he has an efficient night, but his FGA line feels significantly inflated.
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🏀 NBA 2026 Finals Game 1
Karl-Anthony Towns U 33.5 PRA (1.89)
Julian Champagnie O 9.5 Pts (1.83)
Jalen Brunson O 6.5 Asts (1.68)
DeAaron Fox O 12.5 FGA (1.80)
Mikal Bridges O 18.5 PR (1.95)
OG Anunoby O 5.5 Rebs (1.90)
Dylan Harper O 4.5 2PA (1.68)
Josh Hart O 4.5 Asts (2.10)
🏀 NBA 2026 Finals Game 1
Karl-Anthony Towns U 33.5 PRA (1.89)
Julian Champagnie O 9.5 Pts (1.83)
Jalen Brunson O 6.5 Asts (1.68)
DeAaron Fox O 12.5 FGA (1.80)
Mikal Bridges O 18.5 PR (1.95)
OG Anunoby O 5.5 Rebs (1.90)
Dylan Harper O 4.5 2PA (1.68)
Josh Hart O 4.5 Asts (2.10)
🏀 NBA WCF Game 7 Betting Card
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 1.5 3PM (1.71)
Chet Holmgren Under 22.5 Pts + Rebs (1.83)
Victor Wembanyama Over 11.5 2PA (1.71)
Stephon Castle Over 1.5 Asts 1Q (1.68)
De'Aaron Fox Over 12.5 FGA (1.83)
📈 13-5 (72%) on Conference Finals props!
🏀 NBA WCF Game 7 Betting Card
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 1.5 3PM (1.71)
Chet Holmgren Under 22.5 Pts + Rebs (1.83)
Victor Wembanyama Over 11.5 2PA (1.71)
Stephon Castle Over 1.5 Asts 1Q (1.68)
De'Aaron Fox Over 12.5 FGA (1.83)
📈 13-5 (72%) on Conference Finals props!
🏀 NBA WCF Game 7 Betting Card
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 1.5 3PM (1.71)
Chet Holmgren Under 22.5 Pts + Rebs (1.83)
Victor Wembanyama Over 11.5 2PA (1.71)
Stephon Castle Over 1.5 Asts 1Q (1.68)
De'Aaron Fox Over 12.5 FGA (1.83)
📈 13-5 (72%) on Conference Finals props!