Jack

CFB / NFL / NBA
Thoroughly researched props and sides.

[Jack @cfbjack]

Roman Wilson cash itttt ✅

[Jack @cfbjack]

Roman Wilson - O 20.5 Receiving Yards
📊 @propsdotcash
PIT @ CLE

Despite the mistakes he's made, he has been Rodgers most productive receiver this season.

- 114 rec yards (1st on team)
- 18 targets (2nd most on team)
- 11 receptions (tied 1st on team)

Browns DC Mike Rutenberg opened the year playing a lot of zone (around 67–73% in Week 1), then flipped back toward man in Week 2, where they had more success. On the season they’re one of the most man heavy defenses in the league (43% man, second in the NFL) they mostly have Denzel Ward and Tyson Campbell on islands. Metcalf and Pittman are likely going to attract most of the attention from Ward and Campbell (if he plays), which gives Wilson more favourable match ups.

Wilson is a receiver that the Steelers line up all over the place, depending on personnel. He has a lot of speed and is capable of winning 1 on 1, as shown in week 3 where he cooked Jalen Davis (Bengals NB) for a 38 yard TD.

On Sunday, despite having a good game numbers wise, Rodgers threw a pass directly to him and he somehow batted it up in the air, leading to a pick. After this mistake, Wilson only played 5 more snaps the rest of the game. Whilst that is concerning, it's unlikely that they're going to sit him down and not target him this week, especially given that he has been their most productive receiver this season.

Browns also have some secondary injury worries, both Tyson Campbell (knee) and Grant Delpit (shoulder) are questionable for this game, Campbell missed week 3.

20.5 is such an achievable number for a receiver who has been targeted 6 times in every game so far this season and leads his team in rec yards.

Browns pass defence has allowed 224 yards per game through the air this season. They've allowed 466 receiving yards to wide receivers, 14.6 yards per catch.

[Jack @cfbjack]

Can get Wilson at 18.5 on a lot of books now. I placed 2 days ago

[Jack @cfbjack]

TNF Plays ✍🏻

Steelers -2.5
Roman Wilson O 20.5 Rec Yards
Quinshon Judkins O 55.5 Rush Yards

[Jack @cfbjack]

Penn State -2.5 @ Northwestern

Penn State's defence have basically played 5 minutes of bad football all season. With less than 4 minutes left in the game last Saturday, they led 20-10 vs Wisconsin. They gave up a TD in the redzone and then another lapse in concentration left Jacob Harris wide open for Wisconsin's 72 yard game winning score. Penn State's offence in that game wasn't great either, they only managed 1 TD, but I think they bounce back on Friday night in their 2nd BIG10 game of the season. Here is why 👇

Penn State have a huge edge in the trenches and on defence overall. They rank #4 in the FBS in pass defence, they're allowing 126.3 pass yards per game. They also rank #9 in the FBS in total defence, allowing less than 240 total yards per game. Northwestern's rush defence has been a major issue for them, they are giving up 199.3 rushing yards per game and 5.3 yards per carry. Northwestern blew Colorado out 41-7, but still allowed 180 yards on the ground vs them.

Northwestern gave a valiant effort against Indiana last weekend no doubt, they went toe to toe with them, but I see this as a potential emotional let down spot for them and a bounce back spot for PSU.

Aidan Chiles has been productive 6 TDs without an interception, but Northwestern ranks 113th in sack rate allowed vs FBS opponents. I don't see them being able to sustain drives against this PSU defence if they are unable to consistently give Chiles protection and time to throw.

Northwestern couldn't get anything going on the ground vs Indiana, they managed just 32 yards on 27 attempts, they don't have a top tier rushing attack, despite rushing for a good amount of yards against lesser opposition in their first 2 games.

Northwestern do have some injury concerns also, multiple DB's are out, C Ezomo Oratokhai is out, and their standout TE Luke Dehnicke is questionable.

Overall, I think Penn State are a bad match up for this Northwestern team on both sides of the ball. Penn State opened -7 for this game and now it's down to -2.5, which I will happily take, I think they have the edge in almost every department, except home field of course.

[Jack @cfbjack]

Steelers -2.5

Rodgers is still lethal when he has time to throw. 🎯

Through 3 games, Cleveland ranks 20th in average time to pressure (2.70s) and 19th in get off time (0.83s). Opposing QBs are getting 3.03s to throw, 6th highest in the NFL. Browns are also blitzing just 23.3% of the time, meaning they rely heavily on generating pressure with four.

Rodgers had 3.19 seconds to throw vs Cincinnati last week, one of his cleanest pockets since joining Pittsburgh, and he responded with 292 pass yards and 3 TDs against a defence that had looked excellent before that game. His INT was from a perfectly thrown pass that Roman Wilson batted into the air.

Cleveland's 2 wins this season came against teams with QB's who statistically hang on to the ball longer before throwing, Baker Mayfield and Bryce Young. Mayfield's time to throw is 2.99 seconds (8th highest in NFL) and Young's is 3.02 (7th highest). Where Cleveland don't blitz all that much, this benefits them because their 4 rushers have more time to get home on these QB's. Compare that to week 1 where they played Trevor Lawrence, who has the 12th quickest avg time to throw in the NFL (2.82 seconds), Cleveland only managed 6 pressures in that game and got blown out.

If the Steelers O-line plays as well as they did vs Cincinnati, Rodgers will have plenty of time to pick this Cleveland defence apart. Rodgers is averaging 2.89 seconds to throw this season, last week vs CIN, that number rose to 3.19.

Steelers had a lot of success running the ball on Sunday vs CIN, Jaylen Warren averaged 7.5 yards per carry. Cleveland is allowing 120.3 rushing yards per game, 23rd in the NFL, so Warren running well again tonight will be crucial for the Steelers.

Aaron Rodgers is 9-2 ATS in his career on TNF against divisional opponents (found with @trendscenterapp)

[Jack @cfbjack]

@CollegeFBonX Take the over for sure

[Jack @cfbjack]

Jadan Baugh (Florida) - O 114.5 Rush Yards
Florida @ Missouri, Sat 3 Oct
📊 @propsdotcash

RUN THE BAUGH 🐊

He's had 83 carries in 4 games this season, but more importantly in the the 2 SEC match ups that Florida have had, he's had 26 (@ Auburn) and 29 carries (vs Ole Miss). Florida's opening 2 games were blowout victories vs FAU and Campbell, where he only had 14 carries in each. Barring an injury, 20 carries @ Missouri will be his floor.

He has 600 rushing yards in 4 games, averaging 7.2 yards per carry and 150 rushing yards per game. He has 255 yards AFTER CONTACT, (103 of those were vs Ole Miss). He leads the FBS in rushing 1st downs (29), missed tackles forced (34), and PFF rushing grade (92.6).

Missouri's rush defence is ranked 43rd in FBS, they're solid, but not exceptional. Fluff Bothwell had 122 yards on 25 carries in Mississippi State's victory over Missouri on Saturday. Baugh has gone way over 150 rush yards against both SEC opponents he's faced so far this year.

Best line -114 Fanduel

[Jack @cfbjack]

Quinshon Judkins - O 55.5 Rush Yards
📊 @propsdotcash
PIT @ CLE

Volume is 🔑 here. 88% of the Browns rush attempts this season have come from Judkins and QB Deshaun Watson (66 out of 75).

Judkins has 42 carries for 124 yards through 3 games, which is not spectacular at all, he's been averaging 3 yards per carry. However, he has faced 2 top 10 rush defences in the league ON THE ROAD over this stretch, @ Tampa Bay who are #2 in the NFL against the rush, only allowing 76.0 total rush yards per game. He's also faced the Jaguars who are #8 in the NFL in rushing defence, allowing 91.3 yards per game.

Steelers are allowing 113 rush yards per game, but they've been particularly good at not allowing QB's to run on them. QB rushing numbers vs Steelers this season: 6 carries, 30 yards. This is by design, Steelers are great at getting to the QB quickly, they have an elite group of pass rushers, but also ahead of the New England game, Pittsburgh knew Drake Maye was a scrambling threat, and the Steelers' own players talked about needing to maintain discipline in their rush lanes. The plan wasn't simply "get to Maye as fast as possible", it was to squeeze the pocket without creating escape lanes.

However, running backs have had success against the Steelers, Bijan and Brian Robinson Jr. combined for 114 rush yards, Rhamondre Stevenson and Trey'veyon Henderson combined for 119, and then on Sunday Chase Brown had 61 yards on only 13 carries.

So far this season, the Browns haven't really given carries to other running backs, it's primarily been Judkins and Deshaun Watson running the football.
Raheem Sanders is the RB2, he's had 4 carries in 3 games, whilst Jaleel McLaughlin who is listed as RB3 has 1 carry.

Rush attempts for the Browns this season:
Judkins - 42
Watson - 24
Sanders - 4
McLaughlin - 1
KC Concepcion (WR) - 4

This is a Thursday Night Primetime divisional match up, with a low total (38.5) and a close spread (PIT -2.5). If the Browns are winning or if the game is close, I think they'll lean on Judkins all night and give him plenty of work, he's had a minimum of 12 carries in every game so far, and as explained above they haven't been giving much work to the other running backs they have.

[Jack @cfbjack]

4 CFB Player Props that have a 100% hit rate this season 🧪✅

#1 Aidan Chiles (Northwestern) - O 212.5 Pass Yards
Penn State @ Northwestern, Friday Oct 2

- Avg 269 pass yards per game, 70% completion percentage.
- Threw for 293 yards vs Indiana last week, Indiana rank #6 in the nation in total defence.
- Penn State had a super easy start to the season, but then lost their BIG10 opener at home to Wisconsin on Saturday, allowing 235 pass yards to Colton Joseph.
- Northwestern struggled running the ball vs Indiana, they only had 32 yards as a team on the ground. Penn State's rush defence has been very solid, so Chiles is likely going to have to throw a lot again.
- Best line -114 Fanduel

#2 Jadan Baugh (Florida) - O 114.5 Rush Yards
Florida @ Missouri, Sat 3 Oct

- Legit might be the best running back in the FBS. He's had 83 carries in 4 games this season, but more importantly in the the 2 SEC match ups that Florida have had, he's had 26 (@ Auburn) and 29 carries (vs Ole Miss). Florida's opening 2 games were blowout victories vs FAU and Campbell, where he only had 14 carries in each. Barring an injury, 20 carries @ Missouri will be his floor.
- He has 600 rushing yards in 4 games, averaging 7.2 yards per carry and 150 rushing yards per game. He has 255 yards AFTER CONTACT, (103 of those were vs Ole Miss). He leads the FBS in rushing 1st downs (29), missed tackles forced (34), and PFF rushing grade (92.6).
- Missouri's rush defence is ranked 43rd in FBS, they're solid, but not exceptional. Fluff Bothwell had 122 yards on 25 carries in Mississippi State's victory over Missouri on Saturday. Baugh has gone way over 150 rush yards against both SEC opponents he's faced so far this year.
- Best line -114 Fanduel

#3 Ja'Kobi Jackson (Ohio State) - Anytime TD
Ohio State @ Iowa, Sat 3 Oct

- His season stats: 31 carries, 206 yards, 5 rushing TDs, 6.65 YPC, Longest Rush 49 yards.
- Ja'Kobi has become Ohio State's redzone back, 4 of his 5 TD's have come from 11 yards or closer, 2 of them have come from inside the 2 yard line.
- Iowa is yet to allow a rushing touchdown this season through 4 games, but Michigan were able to move the ball on them, they had 153 yards as a team on the ground on Saturday. Michigan also moved the ball through the air, Underwood had 276 pass yards, but Iowa's bend don't break style defence kept them out of the end zone for the most part. This is where I like Ja'Kobi anytime TD, if Ohio State are inside the 10 yard line, Jackson should get his opportunities to punch it in.
- Best line +123 Caesars

#4 Kamario Taylor (Miss State) - O 1.5 Pass TD
Alabama @ Mississippi State, Sat 3 Oct

- Taylor has been on fire to start the season, not against bad teams either, he's played Minnesota, South Carolina, and Missouri. He has 14 Pass TD, 3+ in every game.
- Wild stat: on second down he is 26/34, 7 TD's.
- Alabama defence is a definite step up in competition, but they have allowed 5 pass TD this season, at least 1 in every game, and Ashton Daniels threw 2 against them in a shootout.
- Best line 128 Fanduel

Stats from the best tool in the game @propsdotcash 📊

[Jack @cfbjack]

Roman Wilson - O 20.5 Receiving Yards
📊 @propsdotcash
PIT @ CLE

Despite the mistakes he's made, he has been Rodgers most productive receiver this season.

- 114 rec yards (1st on team)
- 18 targets (2nd most on team)
- 11 receptions (tied 1st on team)

Browns DC Mike Rutenberg opened the year playing a lot of zone (around 67–73% in Week 1), then flipped back toward man in Week 2, where they had more success. On the season they’re one of the most man heavy defenses in the league (43% man, second in the NFL) they mostly have Denzel Ward and Tyson Campbell on islands. Metcalf and Pittman are likely going to attract most of the attention from Ward and Campbell (if he plays), which gives Wilson more favourable match ups.

Wilson is a receiver that the Steelers line up all over the place, depending on personnel. He has a lot of speed and is capable of winning 1 on 1, as shown in week 3 where he cooked Jalen Davis (Bengals NB) for a 38 yard TD.

On Sunday, despite having a good game numbers wise, Rodgers threw a pass directly to him and he somehow batted it up in the air, leading to a pick. After this mistake, Wilson only played 5 more snaps the rest of the game. Whilst that is concerning, it's unlikely that they're going to sit him down and not target him this week, especially given that he has been their most productive receiver this season.

Browns also have some secondary injury worries, both Tyson Campbell (knee) and Grant Delpit (shoulder) are questionable for this game, Campbell missed week 3.

20.5 is such an achievable number for a receiver who has been targeted 6 times in every game so far this season and leads his team in rec yards.

Browns pass defence has allowed 224 yards per game through the air this season. They've allowed 466 receiving yards to wide receivers, 14.6 yards per catch.

[Jack @cfbjack]

Monday Night Football🍴

Kyle Monangai - O 51.5 R+R
Jalen Hurts - O 17.5 Completions

8-2 so far this week on NFL 💰

[Jack @cfbjack]

Jalen Hurts - O 17.5 Pass Completions
📊 @propsdotcash
Eagles @ Bears

Since the start of last season including playoffs, 14/21 QB's have had 18 or more completions against this Bears defence. Of the QB's who didn't hit 18 or more, 2 of them were back ups (Wentz, Huntley), and JJ McCarthy x2 (who is now a 3rd string QB).

Hurts is averaging 21.8 completions per game in his last 5 road games. He went 22/37 @ CHI last season. Last week the Bears defence played Wentz at home in appalling conditions and he only had 11 completions, but in week 1 against Bryce Young, they gave up 23 completions.

Best line I have found for this is -125, also playable at 18.5. Another bet I liked the look of was Hurts O 28.5 Pass attempts, he's also over this in 4 of his L5 road games, averaging 34.6 per game.

[Jack @cfbjack]

Kyle Monangai - O 51.5 Rush + Rec Yards
📊 @propsdotcash
Eagles @ Bears

Nobody is averaging more rushing yards per game this season than the Chicago Bears (212.5)... and that was with Caleb Williams at QB. With him being ruled out, I expect Ben Johnson to give plenty of work to his 2 backs, Swift & Monangai.

He is not going to let Case Keenum or Bagent attempt to chuck it around all night against a Vic Fangio pass defence that is only allowing 166 yards per game through the air this season. I'm expecting plenty of rushing and quick throws to get the ball out of the QB's hands fast.

Eagles run D has given up 254 yards on 61 carries (4.16 YPC), sitting 25th in rushing yards allowed per game. Washington ran for 132 on them, Titans had 122. And we already know what this Bears backfield did to them last year, 281 rushing yards, Monangai himself went 22 for 130 and a TD.

Monangai season stats so far:
- 20 Rush Attempts
- 147 Rush Yards
- 4 Receptions
- 35 Receiving Yards

[Jack @cfbjack]

@DrJesseMorse @InjuryExpertz Nice phantom injury and storyline you’ve invented here bud!

[Jack @cfbjack]

NFL Sunday Recap: 5-2

Chiefs -9.5 ✅
Lions -6.5 ✅
Jaguars -2.5 ✅
Jaxon Smith-Njigba O 6.5 Rec ✅
Juwan Johnson O 33.5 Rec Yards ✅
Dalton Kincaid ❌
Derrick Henry ❌

[Jack @cfbjack]

NFL Plays

Chiefs -9.5
Lions -6.5
Jaguars -2.5

Player Props:
Dalton Kincaid O 54.5 Rec Yards
Derrick Henry O 89.5 Rush Yards
Jaxon Smith-Njigba O 6.5 Receptions
Juwan Johnson - O 33.5 Rec Yards

[Jack @cfbjack]

@dunkitflaply @propsdotcash he has over 50 yards 👍

[Jack @cfbjack]

Juwan Johnson - O 33.5 Receiving Yards
📊 @propsdotcash
Raiders @ Saints

Perfect throwing conditions today.

Tyler Shough has been putting up serious numbers in Kellen Moore's pass oriented scheme so far this year. 662 pass yards (2nd in NFL), Juwan Johnson has been targeted 11 times in 2 games and has 120 receiving yards.

Tyler Shough is getting the ball out super quick, average time to throw is 2.7 seconds. He’s been efficient (68.9% completion) and has used Johnson as a safety valve: short-to-intermediate, high YAC (8.6 yards after catch per reception this year), two 25-yard+ plays off shorter throws already.

The Saints are also missing starting LT Kelvin Banks Jr., so Asim Richards is in and the tight ends (Johnson and Fant) have already been mentioned as chip help. That usually means Johnson is on the field a lot in protection packages, then releases.

[Jack @cfbjack]

@dreamgoghty @propsdotcash check now

[Jack @cfbjack]

Chiefs -9.5 ✅
Lions -6.5 ✅
Jaguars -2.5 ✅
Jaxon Smith-Njigba O 6.5 Rec ✅
Dalton Kincaid ❌

Juwan Johnson and Derrick Henry left to go ⏳

[Jack @cfbjack]

NFL Plays

Chiefs -9.5
Lions -6.5
Jaguars -2.5

Player Props:
Dalton Kincaid O 54.5 Rec Yards
Derrick Henry O 89.5 Rush Yards
Jaxon Smith-Njigba O 6.5 Receptions
Juwan Johnson - O 33.5 Rec Yards

[Jack @cfbjack]

NFL Plays

Chiefs -9.5
Lions -6.5
Jaguars -2.5

Player Props:
Dalton Kincaid O 54.5 Rec Yards
Derrick Henry O 89.5 Rush Yards
Jaxon Smith-Njigba O 6.5 Receptions
Juwan Johnson - O 33.5 Rec Yards