CFB Quant

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[CFB Quant @cfbquant]

TLDR
• Offense: 3 first-quarter points in our last 4 games, and 0 for 6 scoring on SEC opening drives. South Carolina's D ranks #54 (#80 vs the pass), the softest left on our schedule.
• Defense: South Carolina's offense ranks #6, the best left. 19 of their 57 big plays are LaNorris Sellers runs or scrambles, and no SEC defense allows more per QB run than we do.
• Reco: Throw early. Spy Sellers.

1. OPENING DRIVES
• Them: 0 of 7 SEC offenses scored on their first drive vs South Carolina.
• Us: 0 for 6 on SEC openers.

[CFB Quant @cfbquant]

SEC's best and worst at stopping QB Runs
/ Sellers averages 7.3. QB runs = designed runs plus scrambles.
/ Sellers gets more of his rush yards from scrambling than Byrum does
/ Sellers leads the SEC for Rush YPA, 50+ attempts

#CFB #Gamecocks #WPS #Mizzou #RTR

[CFB Quant @cfbquant]

@jacobdaviscfb PR agency they hired with their investor’s (fans) investments, to crisis manage instead of buying trust with a couple bullet points of actual gameplan.

[CFB Quant @cfbquant]

@JohnNaborsShow That was the opportunity to legitimize it, and it was a drafted response by the PR agency they hired. This was round 3 (4?) of them PR’ing the need state of it. Low hanging opportunity for them to cite 5-10 bullet points on 30/60/90 action plan and that would’ve sufficed.

[CFB Quant @cfbquant]

South Carolina vs. P4 2026
/ leading at half: 3-2 (14th in SEC)

Beamer 2025-2026
/ leading at half: 5-4 tied for worst in the country

Leading the 4th: 9-5 since 2024, good enough for 4th worst in the country.

He’s got Briles, but is the country’s most prominently recognized lead loser and earlier this season was projected to get him fired.

[CFB Quant @cfbquant]

@gatadata88 How come?

[CFB Quant @cfbquant]

@alsochad Breaking this export down into bite size pieces later on but has the unit match-ups for it. Clearly QB Designed runs is a coaching preparedness flaw.

[CFB Quant @cfbquant]

@clarkbrooks_On3 Never considered factoring erased sacks into OL assessment, but will going forward!

[CFB Quant @cfbquant]

DL and LBs spread out in second half after seeing us stack the box slow Byrum’s inside runs down. Second time the DC’s gameplan this year changed, counterintuitively, after half and we lost in a one score game.

I’ll be impressed if we hold South Carolina to 4.5 Rush YPC. We’re the worst P4 Rush defense they face this year. Kentucky Rush D ranked over 40 spots higher than us - the second easiest South Carolina has faced, and they put up 6.3 YPC on them.

South Carolina’s opponent Rush defenses last 7 games: 15th, 16th, 22nd, 26th, 48th, 2nd, 29th.
And they’re still third for Rush YPG in SEC.

[CFB Quant @cfbquant]

@JacksonCollier Smart on them. If you’re optimistic about the choices you make leading to a better position for your school in 3-4 years, then you shouldn’t make 6+ year deals.

[CFB Quant @cfbquant]

Texas vs. LSU

[CFB Quant @cfbquant]

Biggest edge in LSU 🐅 vs Texas? The trenches.

LSU's D-line vs Texas' O-line (FBS rank):
…QB pressure: #2 vs #126
…Sacks: #3 vs #124
…Runs stuffed: #7 vs #117

LSU ranks higher in all 6 on the card.

Texas has 2 edges of its own when LSU has the ball ⬇️

#CFB #GeauxTigers #HookEm

[CFB Quant @cfbquant]

DL: Worst DL2-DL4 in the country by a WIDE margin. Under no circumstance unless we go get better ones and they become insurance. Jones had a good game against the 2nd most allowed sacks in the country. Wasn’t progress. New elite RT1, LT1, DT1, DT2, End1 as a group are needed more than all other needs combined if we want to win more than 7 next year.

Soles and JQ, sure. Lockett falls under top half of 2026 class. Kash also falls under IOL.

[CFB Quant @cfbquant]

@CCignettiIU Bad losses, by the numbers 👇

Lost to an unranked team: Georgia, Texas (twice), BYU, Texas Tech

Indiana's only loss: by 4 to No. 20 Ohio State

Wins over the CFP top 25: Texas 4, Indiana 0

[CFB Quant @cfbquant]

All 6 matchups, free:
https://t.co/AhfEI3SXAe

1. The link opens on this battle
2. Tap Players to see both lines man by man, with snaps and FBS ranks
3. Tap the battle chips to flip through the other 5
4. Projected score and win odds are up top

[CFB Quant @cfbquant]

Biggest edge in LSU 🐅 vs Texas? The trenches.

LSU's D-line vs Texas' O-line (FBS rank):
…QB pressure: #2 vs #126
…Sacks: #3 vs #124
…Runs stuffed: #7 vs #117

LSU ranks higher in all 6 on the card.

Texas has 2 edges of its own when LSU has the ball ⬇️

#CFB #GeauxTigers #HookEm

[PEARatings @PEARatings]

DELETE

[CFB Quant @cfbquant]

I think too many look at conferences as aggregates.

These are an illustration, not exacts:
/ The top ~2-3 of SEC are equal with Top ~2-3 of Big 10

/ ~2-4 of SEC and Big 10 are equal to 1-3 of Big 12 and 1 of ACC.

/ In some years the Big 12’s 1-2 are up there with SEC and Big Ten 1-3.

/ The bottoms of each P4 conference are awful. Bottom 3-4 of ACC would be competitive in G6. Bottom 1-2 of of the rest.

/ Then the middle grouping of each fluctuate significantly year to year. They’re tight knit within the conference.

[CFB Quant @cfbquant]

there will be 60k at Saturday’s South Carolina game assuming weather isn’t bad. Arkansas’ Noncon weekday basketball games aren’t unique to Arkansas, but there are other similar sized metros as Arkansas with less exciting basketball programs who have better attendance. There’s more than one problem for the basketball attendance. and it won’t substantially improve just by solving the top 2-3.

[CFB Quant @cfbquant]

@wholehogsports Last year, if we had an 80th ranked defense we would’ve won 10-11 games. NIL hasn’t been our problem, and isn’t our problem this year. We’d be 5-4 right now if our defense wouldn’t have gotten out-coached against at half against Tennessee and Auburn.