Making CFF easier to win.
๐ Rankings โข Waiver Wire โข Sleepers
๐ Player reports & depth chart intel
๐จ Fast updates. No fluff.
๐ New content every day.
Monday's episode is live ๐๏ธ
Week 10 was the best week for the CFF All Day rankings since grading started: 39 of 70 start calls hit an A or B (56%)
๐น Week 10 in five stories
๐น Rankings receipts
๐น Your questions graded, including the Gutierrez miss
๐น Superflex: Daniels or Eshelman?
๐น NEW: the Gross Games of the Week ๐คข
๐น Week 11 waiver top 10 + 2QB streamers
Spotify: https://t.co/lMCo3pe7gA
Apple: https://t.co/XTMTaEWM6F
Good question, and that's on us for not making it clearer. Think of it from the offense's side: a higher # means an easier matchup.
#1 = the toughest defense to face
#138 = the easiest
So Ball State at #138 vs QBs means QBs have scored more against it than against any other defense. Green = good matchup to start your guys, red = tough one.
DEFENSE RANKINGS: Wednesday night
Tonightโs six defenses, ranked at every position out of 138, from our first week of rankings (after Week 7) to now.
One is dead last against QBs, one got a lot tougher against TEs, and one moved to the tough side against WRs ๐
Lab Day episode is live ๐๏ธ
๐น Tuesday MACtion receipts
๐น Grading the defense rankings graphic: did the colors hold up?
๐น Wednesday start/sit
๐น Taking Over for the Playoffs: young roles that jumped the last two games, and who they play in Weeks 11โ13
Spotify: https://t.co/flk0gQYpJ2
Apple: https://t.co/hthueqM08D
Order imo:
Trent Mosley, USC (86%)
Cataurus Hicks, Pitt (53%)
Wayne Harris, Kent State (42%)
Alex Taylor, Georgia Southern (7%)
Mosley: 20+ in 4 of 6 healthy games. Indiana is tough vs WRs but he scored 27 at Penn State and 21.1 vs Ohio State.
Hicks: 20+ in all 3 of his games vs soft WR defenses (Miami OH, Va Tech, Miami FL). Florida State leans soft.
Harris vs Taylor is the close one. Harris has the ceiling (27.4, 42.6, 21.2 in 3 of his last 4). Taylor has the steadier floor lately (14.5, 19.3, 19.4) and the softer matchup (Georgia State). If inconsistency is the worry, Taylor.
Yes imo, as a flex in 12-team and deeper leagues. In 10-team leagues, flex him over anyone averaging under 14.
Since Week 6: 27.4, 6.3, 42.6, 21.2. Two of those big games came against average defenses, not soft ones, and heโs drawn 44% and 55% of the targets in his best games.
Bowling Green is on the tough side vs WRs (only 2 receivers have hit 20 on it), so 20+ isnโt the expectation. But itโs well within his range.
WAIVER MARKET | Week 11
๐ Landon Sides, ECU WR: 10% โ 24%
51% of ECUโs targets Saturday (19 targets)
Next: @ Charlotte (soft, #134 vs WRs)
๐ Devonte Lyons, FIU RB: 8% โ 21%
4 straight games as FIUโs lead back, 38.8 pts Saturday
Next: @ Delaware (#100 vs RBs)
๐ Thomas Castellanos, Texas Tech QB: 40% โ 50%
2 starts: 31.5 and 44.7 pts
Next: @ Oklahoma State (#108 vs QBs)
๐ Oran Singleton, Tulsa WR: 33% โ 42%
44% of Tulsaโs targets, 48.7 pts
Next: vs FAU (soft, #125 vs WRs)
๐ Baylor Hayes, Tulsa QB: 10% โ 16%
Next: vs FAU (#137 of 137 vs QBs)
*Still under 20% and still owning their roles:
- Boogie Woods, Kennesaw State RB: 8% โ 13%
83โ100% of the backfield in each of his last 4 games
Next: @ Sam Houston (#95 vs RBs)
- Gio Richardson, Arizona WR: 8% โ 14%
6.33 yards per route Saturday, 2nd among WRs with 20+ routes
Next: vs Utah (average, #64 vs WRs)
Fallers ๐
- Matthew Fuller, South Carolina RB: 62% โ 44%
Broken lower leg, out for the regular season
- Maguire Anderson, FIU WR: 50% โ 43%
15% of FIUโs targets Saturday; 7.0, 7.8 and 1.8 pts over his last 3 games
- Western Michigan DST: 37% โ 18%
Dropped the day it plays Akron, whose offense gives defenses 12.5 pts a game
MACtion is back tonight. Three games, and the start/sit for every one is in the thread ๐
๐น Western Michigan at Akron (6 CT)
SMASH
- Jalen Buckley, Western Michigan RB (90%): 64% of the backfield this season, and 65, 72 and 75% over his last 3 games. He averages 14.3 points against FBS teams and has scored 15+ in 5 of 8. Last week's 7.7 came on 24 carries. Akron is 123rd vs. RBs, and backfields score 8.6 points over their normal against it, combined. Western Michigan is favored by 13.5.
- Western Michigan DST (18%): It was dropped in 19% of leagues the day it plays Akron.
Defenses average 12.5 points against Akron's offense in FBS games.
Western Michigan has scored 10+ in 6 of 8 FBS games.
GOOD ROLE
- Jordan Gant, Akron RB (71%): 74 to 89% of the backfield in each of his last 4 games. He's averaged 19.8 points since he took over the job in Week 4. Start him, but lower the bar: Western Michigan is 31st vs. RBs and holds backfields 5.2 points under their normal, combined.
DART
- Aveion Chenault, Western Michigan WR (3%): 30% of the targets this season and 44% over his last 3 games. He averages 12.0 points against FBS teams. The catch: Western Michigan runs the ball. He's run 20+ routes in only 2 of his 7 FBS games. Akron is soft vs. WRs: receiver groups score 8.6 points over their normal, combined, and 7 of 8 have beaten it. Wayne Harris scored 42.6 there.
BENCH (10- and 12-team)
- Marcel Williams, Akron WR (30%): 23% of the targets, and an average of 11.4 points against FBS teams. Western Michigan is average vs. WRs.
๐น Kent State at Bowling Green (6 CT)
GOOD ROLE
- Wayne Harris, Kent State WR (41%): 27% of the targets this season and 30% over his last 3 games. He drew 55% at Akron. He's all or nothing: an average of 15.0 against FBS teams, but a typical game of 6.7. His last 3 games were 6.3, 42.6 and 21.2. Bowling Green leans tough vs. WRs: receiver groups score about 3 points under their normal, combined, and only 3 of 8 have beaten it. Flex him in 12-team and deeper leagues only if you need a ceiling. Bench him in 10-team leagues.
- Austyn Dendy, Bowling Green RB (51%): He's questionable (undisclosed) and was a surprise scratch last game. He averages 7.9 points against FBS teams with 52% of the backfield. Kent State is soft vs. RBs (119th; backfields score 7.3 points over their normal, combined). If he's active, flex him in 14-team and deeper leagues only. If he's out, bench him everywhere.
DART (deep leagues, if Dendy is out)
- Nakai Amachree, Bowling Green RB (1%): He had 71% of the backfield last week with Dendy out and scored 10.8.
๐น Ohio at Miami (OH) (7 CT)
SMASH (2QB / superflex)
- Nick Poulos, Ohio QB (12%): He's scored 20+ in 4 of his 5 healthy games against FBS teams, with an average of 20.9. His last 3 games: 15.4 (a 48โ7 blowout), 21.8 and 21.4. Miami (OH) is 129th vs. QBs, and quarterbacks score 7.3 points over their normal against it.
- Ohio DST (12%): 12+ points in each of its last 5 FBS games. Miami (OH) is down to backup QB Caleb Heavner, who averages 14.4 in his starts.
GOOD ROLE
- Riley Neer, Ohio WR (26%): 34% of Ohio's targets this season and 40% last week. The points have stalled: 9.4, 10.6 and 9.4 over his last 3 games. But the targets are there, which makes this a usage-intact, results-down case. Miami (OH) is the softest WR defense in the country by a mile: receiver groups score 20.0 points over their normal, combined, and 7 of 8 have beaten it. Chance Morrow scored 45.9 there last week. Start him as a flex in 12-team and deeper leagues. In 10-team leagues, flex him over anyone averaging under about 12.
FLEX (14-team and deeper)
- Duncan Brune, Ohio RB (46%): 62% of the backfield last week, and an average of 11.3 points against FBS teams. Miami (OH) is average vs. RBs (59th). Bench him in 10- and 12-team leagues.
DART
- Rodney Nelson, Miami (OH) RB (16%): Ohio is 133rd vs. RBs (backfields score 10.9 points over their normal, combined). But it's a split: Nelson has 43% of the backfield this season, and D'Shawntae Jones had 53% last week. Nelson scored 26.2 in the one other soft spot like this (Akron).
#CFF
DEFENSE RANKINGS: Tuesday night
The softest receiver defense in the country plays tonight. So do 4 of the 25 softest run defenses.
Hereโs every matchup in tonightโs 3 MAC games, and which direction each defense is trending ๐
Target share up three weeks in a row, all under 40% rostered ๐ (share of team targets, Week 8 โ 9 โ 10)
๐น AJ Williams, New Mexico State WR (0%): 19 โ 26 โ 38%, 35.0 pts Sat ยท @ Missouri State (average vs WR)
๐น Marcus Calwise, Louisiana Tech WR (0%): 10 โ 25 โ 34%, 28.7 pts Sat ยท vs Southern Miss (average vs WR)
๐น Destyn Hill, Tulane WR (5%): 18 โ 25 โ 33% ยท @ Rice (average vs WR)
๐น Grady O'Neill, Sam Houston WR (2%): 25 โ 30 โ 31% ยท vs Kennesaw State (leans soft vs WR)
๐น Walker Lyons, BYU TE (38%): 13 โ 27 โ 30% ยท vs Baylor (leans soft vs TE)
๐น Horatio Fields, Ole Miss WR (4%): 16 โ 21 โ 29%, 17.6+ pts in all three ยท @ Oklahoma (tough vs WR)
๐น Elija Lofton, Miami TE (29%): 6 โ 14 โ 28%, 11 targets and 42 routes Sat ยท vs Duke (leans tough vs TE)
๐น Matt Coleman, Sacramento State WR (36%): 14 โ 23 โ 28% ยท @ Central Michigan, Wed (average vs WR)
Jackson Gutierrez (Navy, QB, 67% rostered) is on a heater ๐ฅ
57.12 points vs Temple: 180 rush yds, 5 rush TDs + 178 passing
Last 5 games:
- 46
- 46
- 50.12
- 19.8
- 57.12
๐น 14 rush TDs in that span
๐น 178 rush yds a game
Isaac Brown if he plays: GT is 131st vs RBs. He's questionable (lower body), so if your league allows late swaps, flex him and keep Xavier Williams (Iowa's lead back with Moulton out) as the same-kickoff pivot. If your lineup locks early, go Sowell: probable, back from injury, and Koby Howard is out.
Hawkins imo. 35.4 a game vs FBS and never under 24. Tech's D is average vs QBs (86th), and their bigger threat is keep-away but even in WVU's worst blowout he scored 24.6.
Gutierrez has the bigger spike weeks (46, 46, 50) but also 12.9 and 19.8. 6-pt pass TDs help Hawkins (9 TD passes) a bit more than Gutierrez (7), since Navy throws only 13ish times a game. Start Hawkins.
Castellanos imo. He's listed QB1 on Tech's depth chart for WVU, and McGuire said he expects him to stay the starter (28 dropbacks + 16 designed runs in his first start).
Rice expects Jacurri Brown back healthy and says it plans to use both QBs. Ochoa's 57 came on 12 carries and five 50+ yd TDs. North Texas is the softer D but role beats matchup here.
@cffallday How about castellanos vs. Ochoa? Finding rice information is difficult and imagine brown should be healthy so unsure of ochoaโs status as the starter.
Hawkins imo. He's averaging 35+ a game vs FBS + has never dipped below 24, with most of it on the ground, where 6-pt pass TDs don't matter.
Tech's D is about average vs QBs (86th), so the matchup isn't a worry. WVU's D is bad (111th vs QBs, 127th vs RBs, 135th vs WRs), so expect a shootout. In WVU's four 40+ point allowed games, Hawkins averaged 37ish. His worst blowout was still 24.6.
Castellanos has 1 real start (31.5 vs Arizona). He's a fine 2QB/superflex play, but Hawkins is a must-start imo.
Week 10 rankings episode is live ๐๏ธ
๐น Thursday receipts
๐น The Leonard Farrow miss, and the new rule it created
๐น Friday night start/sit
๐น How the rankings are built (new RB/WR/TE matchup tests)
๐น Every Smash Play + the top Role Win and Dart at every position
Spotify: https://t.co/L0CWBhAsGP
Apple: https://t.co/7mPbEbhA4D
Thursday episode is live ๐๏ธ
๐น Wednesday receipts + new rule for split backfields
๐น Thursday start/sit: smash plays, good roles, darts
๐น CFF Games of the Week
๐น The Running QB Rule tested. Do QB matchups matter less than you think?
Spotify: https://t.co/f2pcDdtor5
Apple: https://t.co/YB9uNugTRJ