My interview with Richard Moglen and TraderLion!
I rambled quite a bit but hope you get something out of it! Now open to watch for everyone.
https://t.co/7N6wDb930D
In case this is anyone's first time. Semis and Memory names are highly cyclical (boom/bust). I personally love trading them because they TREND like nothing else. Just be aware, when it's over, they can drop farther than you can imagine.
Is the trend over? I don't know. Just something to be aware of.
I still remember the first time I got caught in a blow up trade. The disbelief, frozen in fear. The thought that "this can't possibly be happening to me. I'm a special snowflake. This kind of stuff only happens to other people."
Was a punch in the gut. ANY-THING can happen in markets. I am not special. I am just one of tens of millions of market participants.
Spoke with a friend in China who regularly travels to Nigeria to do business and hires security to escort him around with AK-47s so he can pass “check points” (bribe spots) with guys who are also armed with AK-47s.
He finds that less risky than trading stocks.
I had a pretty good idea that the top 10 trades made my entire year. I went back to my data to see just how close it was.
Top 10 trades = 127 risk adjusted R
Total risk adjusted R return for 2025: 129
So yeah, remove the top 10 trades and I am break even.
I can attest that the chinese real estate market is in very bad shape. The area we are staying in, the apartments used to sell for 6mm RMB. Now they are sitting at 3mm RMB unsold (private owners can't sell them at 2.5mm). They are renting for less than 1% yield. Half of them are unsold and they keep building more.