Canadian official who threatened to shut off oil to US fires back after ... https://t.co/HlElHh3Jo7 via @YouTube
Let's be sensible regarding Trade...one of the loudest voices on Free Trade was George W Bush. I hate to see Americans suffer with higher inflation.
What are the implications from the significant drone attack on Saudi Arabia’s oil fields? Oil prices have recorded an unprecedented jump pressuring bonds and equities. It is clearly inflationary and is a tax on growth, especially oil importing Asia and Europe.
The European stock markets are at the highest levels recorded first in September 2018. Asset classes of all categories are being inflated by super low interest rates. However, the greater the excess of any asset class, the sharper and bigger the ultimate reversal and fall.
The rally in European bond yields this past week was not mirrored in the US. Will the excitement in an economic recovery evident in European equities and bonds ultimately be reflected in the real economy?
Just a week ago, the Financial Times reported: “German factory executives have reported that industry conditions are in a free fall.” This was based on the July Ifo Institute’s manufacturing climate index which slumped to the lowest level since 2009.
Investors are so keen to reduce risk that they are willing to pay to park their cash. The ECB is doing almost everything possible to encourage investors to buy risky assets with the intent of stimulating the European economies, but it seems to not be working.
The fear of a recession lifted bond prices and brought down yields in many cases to historical lows. In Germany, the key bond market for Europe, the 30 year bund yield dropped into the negative zone on Friday finishing at zero percent.
Today, the 30-year German Bund closed at a zero percent yield, a record low. It touched -.01% earlier in the day. This is remarkable. What does that tell us? Can't be good.
With the passage of time, the global economy continues to weaken. This past Thursday, the July Ifo Institute statistics were released and they were very weak providing evidence that the global economy has not yet begun to stabilize.
Consistent with this, the Citibank Surprise Index for Europe had one of its worst weeks of the year dropping almost 30 points to -37.50. Given the shaky global macroeconomic outlook, we believe a cautious stance towards elevated equity markets is warranted.
The final rhythm we waltzed to this week was the coming and going of chief executives. The typical incumbency is five to six years. That’s the same length of time an alpha male lion dominates a pride (source Financial Times).
Notable highlights we observed supporting the case for lower economic growth include weak base metal prices and further falls in interest rates. For example, the 10-year German bund yield declined another 6bp to a record low yield of -.26.