Anthropic hit $14 billion in annualized revenue this month. OpenAI ended 2025 at $20 billion. That gap is closing fast. But zoom out and the math gets wild.
Anthropic grew from $1B to $14B in 14 months. OpenAI grew from $2B to $20B in 24 months. Anthropic is doing it with roughly 1,500 employees. OpenAI has over 3,000. Revenue per employee at Anthropic is approaching $9 million. That’s venture capital efficiency at enterprise scale.
The chart assumes both companies sustain their current growth multipliers. They won’t. Both companies’ own projections show deceleration. Here’s what each company actually forecasts:
OpenAI: $20B in 2025 → ~$30B in 2026 → $100B by 2029. That’s 3.3x growth over 2025, then 1.5x, then diminishing from there.
Anthropic: $9B in 2025 → $18-26B in 2026 → $55B in 2027 → $70B in 2028. That’s 2-3x in 2026, then 2-3x again, then slowing to 1.3x.
Even with deceleration baked in, the lines still converge by 2027. Anthropic’s own projections show $55B in 2027 revenue. OpenAI needs to hit $60-70B that same year to stay ahead, and its growth multiplier is already lower.
Here’s what the chart doesn’t show: profitability trajectory. Anthropic expects to break even by 2028. OpenAI is projecting $14 billion in losses for 2026 alone, $74 billion in operating losses by 2028, and $115 billion in cumulative cash burn through 2029. Anthropic forecasts its burn rate dropping to 9% of revenue by 2027. OpenAI’s stays at 57%.
OpenAI spends $1.69 for every dollar of revenue it generates. It has committed $1.4 trillion in compute deals over the next eight years. Anthropic is building its own data centers.
Claude Code alone hit $2.5 billion in annualized revenue this month, more than doubling since January. A single product generating more ARR than most public SaaS companies.
Revenue lines crossing on a chart makes for a good graphic. The company that gets to profitability first wins the decade. And on that metric, the gap between these two companies is already enormous.
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La vasta tempesta di sabbia che ha colpito la Spagna è arrivata anche sulle Alpi italiane e svizzere. Guardate che differenza tra la giornata di ieri(a sinistra) e quella di oggi(a destra).
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