BREAKING: Thailand is not at war with Iran. Thailand did not participate in Operation Epic Fury. Thailand did not vote for strikes. Thailand did not host bases. Thailand is a Southeast Asian kingdom of 72 million people whose principal relationship with the Strait of Hormuz is that its ships pass through it carrying cargo.
Today the IRGC struck one of those ships.
The “Mayuree Naree”, a Thai-flagged bulk carrier, 178 metres long, 30,193 deadweight tonnes, built 2008, IMO 9323649, was hit by an unknown projectile 11 nautical miles north of Oman while attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz.
The projectile ignited a fire in the vessel. Twenty crew members were rescued by Omani naval forces. Three are missing.
Three Thai sailors are missing in a war their country has no part in, on a ship that was trying to do what 138 ships per day used to do without incident: cross a 33-kilometre waterway carrying cargo from one side of the world to the other.
The weapon that struck the Mayuree Naree has not been identified. The signature is consistent with IRGC coastal-launched projectiles, kamikaze drones, or fast-boat missile attacks that have characterised every strike in the Strait since 28 February. No claim of responsibility has been issued. The Mosaic Doctrine does not claim. Any of the 31 autonomous provincial commands with coastal access could have launched the attack without authorisation from Tehran, without consulting other commands, and without the knowledge of a Supreme Leader who has not spoken, not appeared, and exists at his own rally as a cardboard cutout.
The fire was extinguished after several hours. A skeleton crew reportedly remains aboard. The vessel is damaged but has not sunk. No environmental spill has been reported. But the damage to the vessel is not the damage that matters. The damage that matters is to every shipowner on Earth who just watched a neutral country’s bulk carrier get hit for the crime of attempting to transit.
The US Navy has three carrier strike groups in the region. The USS Abraham Lincoln in the Arabian Sea. The USS Gerald R. Ford in the Red Sea. The USS George H.W. Bush en route. Combined firepower exceeding the military capacity of most nations. Reuters reported the Navy has refused near-daily escort requests from the shipping industry since 28 February because the risk is too high. The Mayuree Naree transited without escort. It transited without war-risk insurance, which seven P&I clubs cancelled effective 5 March. It transited because someone calculated that the cargo was worth the risk. The calculation was wrong.
The ship’s insurer, if it had one, will not pay for a vessel that entered a war zone after coverage was voided. The owner faces a total loss on a 17-year-old bulk carrier that is now damaged, crewless, and anchored in waters where mines have been confirmed and 31 autonomous commands continue firing. Salvage would require a tug to enter the same corridor that just struck the vessel it would be rescuing. The insurance that would cover the tug does not exist either.
Iran did not strike Thailand. Iran struck a ship. The Mosaic Doctrine does not distinguish between flags. It distinguishes between presence and absence. Any vessel in the Strait is a target. Any vessel outside is safe. The doctrine’s enforcement is binary: you are in the corridor or you are not. Nationality, cargo, neutrality, and intent are irrelevant. The 31 commands that fired on the Mayuree Naree do not know it is Thai. They know it is there.
Three sailors are missing. The ship is burning. And the Strait that was supposed to be “very complete” just attacked a country that was never in the war.
Full analysis below.
https://t.co/eMrt5qYqCV
Vote counting irregularities in 🇹🇭 election notwithstanding, I will say that the liberal-progressive camp has clearly lost to the conservative establishment. The main election results are unlikely to change. Next it’s time for deep reflection by @PPLEThai & @PheuThaiParty. 1/2
You know what, just in case of the ban covering predictions too, here's my prediction on Thai election a week before the vote.
🟠 PPLE: 198
💙 BJT: 136
🔴 PT: 82
🌐 DP: 32
🌾 KT: 26
☪️ PCC: 9
🪖 PPRP: 4
🪙 ECON: 3
⚪️ TRP: 3
🟣 TST: 2
🧬 UTN: 1
🩶 Others: 4
@pakhead There’s a theory that it primarily has to do with Cambodia’s “Stone Temple Nationalism” and the fact that contested areas between Thailand and Cambodia are full of these temples.
@RonallChersan Task force ในที่นี้ไม่น่าจะใช่ military task force แบบ“กองกำลังพิเศษ” นะครับ น่าจะหมายถึง “คณะทำงานที่ได้รับมอบหมายพิเศษ” แบบกว้างๆ
https://t.co/DphlpjckhX
https://t.co/Zh8nUeiBG9
Scoured through Getty Images, here you go some of the best pics from the pope's funeral cause it was pretty damn aesthetic.
#popefrancisfuneral#FuneralPapaFrancisco