CΗΙΞΝ🍭投資筆記

非營銷也不帶單，分享及紀錄投資想法，順便梳理自己的思路｜非永賺｜非永對｜盈虧自負 #bitcoin

[CΗΙΞΝ🍭投資筆記 @chainwu0929]

關於我：
2019年7月，因資金盤詐騙接觸幣圈，認識幣圈前景。
20年312事件後，帶著本金50w入圈抄底。
21年初生之犢搭上元宇宙風潮，成功透過槓桿將本金翻十餘倍，然而隨BTC跌破六萬進入熊市，本金連同收益也遭清算歸零。
22年認知「盈虧同源」的概念，決定重新開始，開啟定投質押的佛系交易生涯。

[Sykodelic 🔪 @Sykodelic_]

The $60k level continues to be strong.

There isn't another period in Bitcoins history similar to where we are now.

Bitcoin has always played with ranges...

But every single time it has been in a strong downtrend, it has always sliced through lows very quickly.

It is highly uncommon for a level to be defended like this if it is not in fact a strong low.

In addition, Bitcoin has been in HTF oversold conditions since Feb, and never in its history has it held a level like this in oversold conditions that hasn't marked its bottom within 15%.

In addition we have:
- Most amount of coins in a loss ever
- ETF capitulation
- Saylor and STRC FUD
- Hovvering around the 200sma
- Largest whale accumulation ever
- The 300SMA at $54,000

All of these things are happening at the same time as Bitcoin continues to hold $60k.

And has now put in 2W, 1W, 5D, 3D, 1D & 4H bullish divergences.

After all of this I do not see the case for much more than another drive into the $54k's to clear out the funding, remaining longs and provide another opportunity for the big boys to load up again.

I personally think the worst of the STRC FUD is behind us, and after the lowest RSI since COVID, we could still hold our bull divs on a drop to $54k.

If/when we get that we would want to see some decent volume come in.

Three very key metrics here add the main confluence:

1. The Bitcoins in a loss are at the highest level ever of any bear market

2. Bitcoin has never dropped below the 300SMA, which sits at $54,000

3. $54,000 is Quantile 3 which is almost the lowest reading ever

If we get back above $65,000 I think the low is in.

If we are to get $54,000 it should happen this coming week.

Let's see how it goes :)

[陳威廉 @williamlab]

卧槽嘞，不是签协议了么？怎么又轰炸了。。。

这协议跟草纸一样，擦屁股都嫌硬啊。

[DurdenBTC @DurdenBTC]

the bottom signal i've been waiting for just fired.

it's caught every cycle low since 2016.

and it will still feel terrible for weeks. if buying here were comfortable, the signal wouldn't exist.

mark the zone. let time do the rest.

[Ted @TedPillows]

$BTC bottomed after 87% dump in 2015.

Bitcoin bottomed after 84% dump in 2018.

BTC bottomed after 78% dump in 2022.

And people are now thinking we'll bottom after a 50% drop.

IMO, Bitcoin will have at least a 60%-65% dump this time before the bottom.

[Ted @TedPillows]

Ethereum OGs are selling.

$52,000,000 in $ETH has been sold today by OGs after 8 years of dormancy.

[CΗΙΞΝ🍭投資筆記 @chainwu0929]

@lanhubiji 比特幣的本質沒有變過。

[CΗΙΞΝ🍭投資筆記 @chainwu0929]

華爾街空頭的主戰場是針對 $STRC 的脱錨，
對 $MSTR 實施隔山打牛的狙擊戰術，
而 $BTC 只是附帶的。

[Murphy @Murphychen888]

看到一位博主用公司债务、优先股和现金，按当时/当前BTC的价格，将净高级债权（Senior Claims，SC）换算成对等的BTC，并将 2022 VS 2026 做了横向对比：

2022年：持有130,000 BTC；SC：146,735 BTC；
普通股权益暴露 -16,735 BTC；

2026年：持有847,363 BTC；SC：351,567 BTC；
普通股权益暴露 +495,796 BTC；

每股指标与NAV：
2022年：−14,786 sats/股，CEBE NAV −$2.33/股。
2026年：138,146 sats/股，CEBE NAV +$81.69/股。

在2022年熊底，Strategy真实存在理论上的“资不抵债”，但也并未被强制清算，股票也没归零。

而相比之下，2026年的资产负债表远更稳健，这是无法用FUD就轻易推翻的数学事实。

另外还有一个细节区别：

2022年的24亿美元是带到期日的债务，有抵押清算风险（Silvergate 那笔BTC抵押贷款是当时真正的风险点，但后来折价偿还了）。而2026绝大部分是永续优先股，没有到期墙。

虽然说，MSTR仍旧存在被稀释，优先股分红压力，BTC价格波动等系列风险，但“死亡螺旋/清算危机”等极端叙事，显然与当前资产负债表的事实不符。

----------------------------

虽然我并不愿往“阴谋论”的方向去想，但隐隐中总感觉有一股力量正在利用STRC的脱锚制造声浪，对BTC进行极限施压。

一些不明所以的围观群众，以讹传讹。传到最后的版本，就变成了本轮周期“微策略”要被清算80w枚BTC，所以BTC价格还会再腰斩 🤣🤣🤣

[CΗΙΞΝ🍭投資筆記 @chainwu0929]

熊途漫漫，記得耐心等待，
今年的主線任務無他，就只有這件事了
而定投會是我們的好朋友⋯
$BTC

[Bob Loukas 🗽 @BobLoukas]

$MSTR holders lost a kidney, then decided to mortgage their house to buy $STRC. 🤦‍♂️

Lesson is, whenever somebody gains a messiah, cult like following, run.

[Ted @TedPillows]

$BTC shorts are having fun here.

Too many short positions opening, and spot selling is supporting it.

But if spot selling stops, all these late shorts will be in huge trouble.

[Ted @TedPillows]

$12,250,000,000 in $BTC and $ETH options will expire next week.

Max pain for Bitcoin: $72,000
Max pain for Ethereum: $2,000

[Dragonball @SonGoku98853117]

週線底背離2022年熊市已經告訴你了
接下來就是一直瘋狂暴漲

[Killa @KillaXBT]

It's either one scenario or the other:

1. A prolonged period of consolidation below $60K before expansion.

2. Quick deviation below $60K followed by expansion.

Both scenarios ultimately lead to the same outcome for $BTC. I don't see any other realistic possibilities playing out besides these two.

[Moon bobo｜Options Trader👨‍🎓 @0xBoboCrypto]

https://t.co/zC196U3Niq

[Ted @TedPillows]

$BTC wants another lower high.

And after that, one more nuke to form the cycle bottom.

[CΗΙΞΝ🍭投資筆記 @chainwu0929]

$BTC 照著計劃來，
只要4小時均線壓制持續，
下跌行情就還沒完全脫離。

[Ted @TedPillows]

Leverage is still pretty high for Bitcoin.

I want to see a full reset similar to Feb 2026 for any strong relief rally.

[CΗΙΞΝ🍭投資筆記 @chainwu0929]

我只能說

LUNA炸開之前也看過這種言論

我覺得 我認為 我以為

沒有對賬單 純口嗨都沒用

#LUNA #MSTR #STRC

[陈桂林 @Guilin_Chen_]

牛市顶部多利好消息，熊市底部多利空消息。

牛市顶部给利好消息的目的是为了能有足够的时间去换手把顶部做好，同理，熊市底部给利空消息的目的也是一样。

看图中两个红圈，都是出现了各种利好，我记得第二个圈，当时是不少大币申请了ETF，不少人是在等大币ETF再带起一波行情的。

牛熊一般都是怎么翻转的？当利好消息放出来却发现价格怎么也抬不上去了，这个时候主力玩家们就知道差不多要到头了，该走了；

熊市是当利空消息放出来，却发现价格越来越难砸了......

消息本身是催化剂，同时也是主力玩家对市场当前状态的测试。

就如同 @Murphychen888 文章里的数据，你别看他们怎么说，你得看他们怎么做，LTH的持仓量是不会说谎的。

MSTR在牛市是信仰，那在熊市里，可以把STRC脱锚当做是当前阶段的一个对市场的极限试探了，接下来怎么看？

1，是看此雷有多大？会不会爆？ 对市场影响多大；

2，是看后续有没有其他的雷引出来。

我个人的观点是，币圈，特别是比特币，每一轮周期都相较于上一轮体量更大，同时也更成熟，这一轮相较于上一轮熊市，理应表现的更好。

[Ted @TedPillows]

New all-time low for $STRC.

Oh Shit...