The $60k level continues to be strong.
There isn't another period in Bitcoins history similar to where we are now.
Bitcoin has always played with ranges...
But every single time it has been in a strong downtrend, it has always sliced through lows very quickly.
It is highly uncommon for a level to be defended like this if it is not in fact a strong low.
In addition, Bitcoin has been in HTF oversold conditions since Feb, and never in its history has it held a level like this in oversold conditions that hasn't marked its bottom within 15%.
In addition we have:
- Most amount of coins in a loss ever
- ETF capitulation
- Saylor and STRC FUD
- Hovvering around the 200sma
- Largest whale accumulation ever
- The 300SMA at $54,000
All of these things are happening at the same time as Bitcoin continues to hold $60k.
And has now put in 2W, 1W, 5D, 3D, 1D & 4H bullish divergences.
After all of this I do not see the case for much more than another drive into the $54k's to clear out the funding, remaining longs and provide another opportunity for the big boys to load up again.
I personally think the worst of the STRC FUD is behind us, and after the lowest RSI since COVID, we could still hold our bull divs on a drop to $54k.
If/when we get that we would want to see some decent volume come in.
Three very key metrics here add the main confluence:
1. The Bitcoins in a loss are at the highest level ever of any bear market
2. Bitcoin has never dropped below the 300SMA, which sits at $54,000
3. $54,000 is Quantile 3 which is almost the lowest reading ever
If we get back above $65,000 I think the low is in.
If we are to get $54,000 it should happen this coming week.
Let's see how it goes :)
the bottom signal i've been waiting for just fired.
it's caught every cycle low since 2016.
and it will still feel terrible for weeks. if buying here were comfortable, the signal wouldn't exist.
mark the zone. let time do the rest.
$BTC bottomed after 87% dump in 2015.
Bitcoin bottomed after 84% dump in 2018.
BTC bottomed after 78% dump in 2022.
And people are now thinking we'll bottom after a 50% drop.
IMO, Bitcoin will have at least a 60%-65% dump this time before the bottom.
$MSTR holders lost a kidney, then decided to mortgage their house to buy $STRC. 🤦♂️
Lesson is, whenever somebody gains a messiah, cult like following, run.
$BTC shorts are having fun here.
Too many short positions opening, and spot selling is supporting it.
But if spot selling stops, all these late shorts will be in huge trouble.
It's either one scenario or the other:
1. A prolonged period of consolidation below $60K before expansion.
2. Quick deviation below $60K followed by expansion.
Both scenarios ultimately lead to the same outcome for $BTC. I don't see any other realistic possibilities playing out besides these two.