As someone from the Pacific Northwest I have an irrational fear of midwestern properties. I know some people have figured it out, but operating with such strong seasonality (snow to significant heat) worries me about building systems robustness. Then layer in how your neighborhoods work (very different than our land use boundaries) and local economic dynamics.
So, without many months and probably years of study, we are going to stick to our knitting where we know how to make things work.
@phil_mcalister Great list. I would add keeping sufficient reserves on hand and liquid is another important component to deal with the ups and downs of real estate
@Cernovich@AJA_Cortes Weird to think about this. At 44 Iβm further down the back 9 of my life than I would have thought I was.
Much more effort into health for longevity now as well as being in the moment with my kids.
Woof this is scary.
What this highlights to me is that his and many GPs business model is to flip deals on a short term basis. His alternative was to flip to an investment model to βsaveβ the deal.
When you invest with a short term horizon you run the risk of getting caught. If he would have taken a long duration approach (and therefore less IRR but more MOIC/EM) he would have dealt with this with a more controlled risk profile.
It makes me wonder if people really know what business they are in and the risks of each.
We had a similar path. After mid 2021 (when we found our last quality deal until 2024), nothing made sense and fundamentals were beyond stretched and deteriorating. We now seeing capitulation and deals start to make sense. 2025 never quite presented opportunities that we liked enough to pull the trigger, but it seems like things are starting to break loose.
I donβt understand people raising for bad deals and continuing to raise. However, if they identified a lesson learned and find religion about risk controls, then maybe there is a compelling reason to work with them.
@mamboitaliano__ 50 meters? They must have been so deep in the throws of narcosis before they passed. That is a technical and risky dive. Not a recreational dive.