Jo-AnnMort

Journo, Analy, Poet, advisor-specialty Israel/Palestine and social Democracy, A PRECISE CHAOS, poetry 4thcoming from @Arrowsmithpress

[Danny (Dennis) Citrinowicz ,داني سيترينوفيتش @citrinowicz]

A View from Tehran: Iran's Leadership Is Entering a New Phase But Not a New Direction

A. As Iran prepares for the post-Ali Khamenei era, it is worth examining the power dynamics emerging inside Tehran. Khamenei was the architect of the Islamic Republic's strategy of resistance for more than three decades, and only weeks after what Iranian leaders view as a war of survival against Israel and the United States, the system is beginning a new phase of adaptation.

B. It is still too early to draw definitive conclusions. The Islamic Republic is only at the beginning of what could be called its "3.0" phase. History offers a useful reminder: when Ali Khamenei himself became Supreme Leader in 1989, he was chosen largely because he was perceived as a compromise candidate rather than the strongest figure in the system.

C. Still, The emerging leadership appears likely to be more collective than under Khamenei. Mojtaba Khamenei is widely seen as first among equals, but not as an undisputed decision-maker like his father. For the first time since the 1979 Revolution, senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commanders are likely to play a much larger role not only in security affairs but also in shaping the Islamic Republic's broader strategic direction.

D. The current leadership seems relatively pragmatic, but that should not be mistaken for moderation. There appears to be broad agreement among the political and security elite that negotiations with the United States should continue, but only within the Islamic Republic's established red lines. The fact that even Mohammad Baqer Zolghadr, the secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, publicly endorsed the memorandum of understanding with Washington reflects that consensus.

E. At the same time, Tehran has not become more trusting of the United States. Quite the opposite. Iranian leaders continue to assume that Washington could return to military action if diplomacy fails. As a result, Iran is determined to preserve what it considers the strategic gains achieved during the recent conflict, particularly its expanded leverage in the Strait of Hormuz. From Tehran's perspective, control over Hormuz is no longer merely a military asset, it has become an ideological symbol of sovereignty and an essential pillar of deterrence. Likewise, Iran's nuclear program remains a non-negotiable bargaining chip. Tehran is unlikely to make meaningful nuclear concessions before reaching a comprehensive agreement with Washington.

F. Lebanon remains another major obstacle. Iran is unlikely to abandon its demand for a full Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon. Combined with the practical difficulties of maintaining continuous negotiations, this makes it unlikely that the current talks will conclude quickly. If both sides continue to see value in diplomacy, an extension of the negotiating process appears more likely than a rapid breakthrough.

G. Iran's willingness to pursue diplomacy is driven largely by economic necessity. The country's economy was under severe strain even before the recent war, and the conflict only deepened those challenges. The leadership increasingly appears to believe that a favorable agreement, one that provides economic relief while preserving Iran's strategic capabilities, would strengthen, rather than weaken, the long-term survival of the Islamic Republic.

H. Meanwhile, internal political tensions remain visible. The recent interruption of Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf's televised interview highlighted underlying rivalries. Beyond personal competition, hardline factions such as Paydari continue to oppose diplomatic engagement. Supreme Leader Khamenei's reported effort to reassure critics, while backing President Masoud Pezeshkian after receiving guarantees about Iran's red lines, suggests an effort to manage these divisions rather than allow them to widen.

I. At the same time, Tehran continues preparing for the possibility of future confrontation. It is rebuilding military capabilities while deepening strategic cooperation with China, with Ghalibaf playing an increasingly prominent diplomatic role. The vacuum created by Ali Khamenei's departure has not destabilized the system, but the new leadership structure remains a work in progress.

The bottom line is that Iran's leadership wants to preserve negotiations with the United States, but not at the expense of what it considers its core strategic assets. That is likely to produce a prolonged negotiating process rather than a quick agreement. Although internal rivalries persist, there is broad consensus around a pragmatic strategy that combines diplomacy with deterrence. Mojtaba Khamenei appears to be the ultimate arbiter, but unlike his father, he is likely to govern through a more collective leadership whose contours are still taking shape.

#iran

[Jo-AnnMort @ChangeCommNYC]

Love Haaretz - subscribe folks !

[Haaretz.com @haaretzcom]

Opinion | Without Haaretz, Israelis wouldn't know there's an occupation | Gideon Levy https://t.co/JeAAwj3Ndv

[Noga Tarnopolsky נגה טרנופולסקי نوغا ترنوبولسكي @NTarnopolsky]

#BREAKING: Maj. Gen. Nitzan Alon, Israel's chief hostage negotiator, says that hostages held by Hamas could have "come back alive" but the Netanyahu government repeatedly turned down truce deals on the altar of "the lie" of "total victory."
@UnxeptableD

[Jo-AnnMort @ChangeCommNYC]

@arash_tehran Yes but Arafat would say one thing one day and one thing an hour later alas

[Jeremy Ben-Ami @JeremyBenAmi]

I’ve known @BradLander for more than 25 years, and I’ve always appreciated his willingness to reject false choices when it comes to Israel, Palestine and our politics.

Today at 4pm ET / 1pm PT, Brad joins me on Word on the Street Live just days after his primary victory to discuss what his campaign says about the Democratic Party, the Jewish community and where we go from here. Hope you’ll join us:

https://t.co/0HsiYLq8ix

[Jo-AnnMort @ChangeCommNYC]

@PeterBeinart Btw I have been going in and out of the West Bank and Gaza (including Jenin) meeting with people and reporting for more than 30 years and always have been known by those I meet to be a Zionist - treated well and protected always -

[UnXeptable @UnxeptableD]

“The political leadership in Israel refused earlier deals– complete, done deals, in the name of that 'total victory' which... I think is a lie.” — Maj. Gen. Alon Nitzan, Israeli Chief Hostage Negotiator. 🚨

Devastating testimony confirming what we all knew and fought against: time and again the Netanyahu government rejected comprehensive truces that could have brought the hostages home alive. Instead, they chose endless war, dragging the fighting out for over two years until the US forced an end to it anyway.

An unimaginable price paid for a false promise. 💔🎗️

#BringThemHome #Israel #Netanyahu #October7

[Louisa Loveluck @leloveluck]

After another, quieter, week of layoffs impacting local staff, the Washington Post has now laid off all of its reporters who have covered Gaza full time since 2023.

This is a choice about what coverage and whose voices matter.

[Jo-AnnMort @ChangeCommNYC]

@simon_schama @JohnStrawson So ironic since klezmer was also the music of the Bund now romanticized by the anti-Zionist left

[Jo-AnnMort @ChangeCommNYC]

@Etanetan23 @ArnoRosenfeld @haaretzcom @Bsamuels0 This is such good news

[Jo-AnnMort @ChangeCommNYC]

@jjz1600 Jim - not all those running - Bennett is not everyone running and now he isn’t even leading

[Noga Tarnopolsky נגה טרנופולסקי نوغا ترنوبولسكي @NTarnopolsky]

���IDF soldiers (of both sexes) were dislodged from their position to allow Netanyahu to be photographed with an all-male ultra-orthodox brigade during his photo-op in south Lebanon yesterday. The mother of a female artillery soldier told @RoySharon11 that commanders ordered female soldiers to move to another structure to accommodate the PM. (No, it is not legal, even on foreign soil, to endanger soldiers for PR purposes.)

[Jo-AnnMort @ChangeCommNYC]

@Etanetan23 Sickening

[Jo-AnnMort @ChangeCommNYC]

Beyond sickening

[J Street @jstreetdotorg]

Ambassador Mike Huckabee’s decision to hold an American Independence Day celebration in a West Bank settlement sends a devastating message.

To millions of American Jews, it says the U.S. is embracing a settlement movement that most of us do not support.

To Palestinians living under occupation, it says their freedom and future do not matter.

https://t.co/qVjURGVVe1

[Jo-AnnMort @ChangeCommNYC]

@arash_tehran Yay

[Gadi Eisenkot - גדי איזנקוט @gadi_eisenkot]

ראש ממשלה שמתבדח על טבח שבעה באוקטובר ומתגאה בכך שמה שהשתנה אצלו מאז המחדל החמור בתולדותינו, במשמרת שלו, הוא ״ירידה במשקל״ - הוא אדם מנותק, לא כשיר ואינו ראוי לעם הזה.

ועדת חקירה ממלכתית שתחקור את המחדל ותמנע את הישנותו, היא צו השעה. אנחנו נקים אותה.
זה בנפשנו.

[Jo-AnnMort @ChangeCommNYC]

@gnuseibeh I am in Israel in July if you are in Jerusalem text me

[Jo-AnnMort @ChangeCommNYC]

@aarondmiller2 We can hope -:)

[Jo-AnnMort @ChangeCommNYC]

Thank you to Dahlia for this

[Dahlia Scheindlin @dahliasc]

Why Israelis (& Jewish Americans) Should Stop Being Afraid of Mamdani-backed Brad Lander https://t.co/qldmmLppg7

[Danny (Dennis) Citrinowicz ,داني سيترينوفيتش @citrinowicz]

One of the biggest problems with Israel's political leadership ahead of the next elections is that many still fail to grasp how dramatically Israel's international standing has deteriorated.

Calls to topple Hamas through a prolonged military campaign in Gaza come with a significant cost: further eroding what remains of Israel's international legitimacy. Likewise, another strike on Iran without the backing of the U.S. administration would be an unprecedented gamble with Israel's security. And perhaps most importantly, there is still little recognition that the strategic reality has fundamentally changed after the Iran campaign. The idea that regime change in Tehran is a realistic policy objective is no longer credible.

Much of Israel's political discourse remains rooted in the assumption that Israel can continue using military force while preserving broad international support. From Washington to European capitals, however, the prevailing perception is that Israel has reached a crossroads. Continuing down the same path will almost certainly come at the expense of its already weakened international legitimacy.

This is about more than hope for Israelis or ending an endless cycle of war. It is about a basic strategic reality: actions that much of the international community tolerated in the past are unlikely to receive the same acceptance in the future.

It is difficult to speak about economic growth, attracting investment, or reversing the emigration of talented Israelis while simultaneously advocating for the military overthrow of Hamas or another war with Iran. That contradiction suggests many Israeli politicians still underestimate how damaged Israel's global image has become.

Those who believe Iran is Israel's greatest threat should pay close attention to what the world is saying about, and increasingly to Israel.

Most Israelis do not want to live in a modern-day Sparta. Ironically, the recent confrontation with Iran also exposed the limits of Israeli military power. Even with remarkable operational successes, military force alone cannot solve Israel's long-term strategic challenges.

Israel may not be an island geographically, but it is very much one geopolitically. Its economy depends on trade with Europe, and its security depends heavily on its strategic partnership with the United States. Both relationships could come under increasing strain if Israel continues on its current course. The same is true for the peace agreements with Egypt and Jordan, which remain pillars of regional stability.

These are the issues Israel's political leadership should be focused on, not promises of another strike on Iran or claims that Hamas can be eliminated through military force alone. The central challenge today is preserving Israel's long-term security, international legitimacy, and strategic partnerships, not pursuing objectives that may prove unattainable at an unsustainable cost.

If the goal is to strengthen the world's only Jewish state over the long term, it will require a fundamental strategic reassessment, not simply promises to continue with more of the same. That is the leadership Israel needs today.