Some random thoughts that may or may not help right now (long ramble):
Let's start with Bitcoin as it dictates everything in crypto, and everything else is mostly downstream from the orange coin.
I still lean towards BTC going up after this period of chopsolidation ends (and yes we can go lower before up of course).
Is it possible BTC goes into prolonged bear market from here?
It's possible, but I think it would be the result of something I am not aware of currently e.g. some huge entities blowing up as a result of 10/10, and therefore forced selling and liquidations happen over a longer period of time.
I have no edge, or information on that, but of course it is a possibility.
I don't think what you have seen over the last year is similar at all to previous Bitcoin cycles.
BTC has basically been in and around $100k for an entire year. The amount of selling that has been absorbed, and therefore the amount of buying on the other side has been huge.
In any previous Bitcoin cycle that level of selling would have taken BTC far lower already.
There is no doubt this is an institutional cycle, not a retail one.
That sets up a very interesting dynamic here, as institutions don't behave like retail, but retail are still insistent on interpreting BTC PA as if it is being driven by retail.
If BTC were to find some strength soonish and put in a proper move then I think you would have a lot of momentum chasers come back. Especially as selling overpriced gold or overpriced stocks for a rotation into lagging BTC just looks way too attractive to turn down.
If BTC were to chop for another two months holding that $100k level then I think it is also very likely that BTC would move much higher in 2026.
It does feel like we are in a close to 50:50 moment (although I lean to higher odds of more upside) where whatever happens next will be obvious in hindsight.
Either:
• 1 year of chopping around a huge level of $100k, and all the OG sellers are absorbed before moving higher, or
• OG selling overwhelms buyers + some bodies float to the surface and we go into a bear market.
As always, ETH + alt coins will do something if BTC breaks higher.
The ETH DAT company bid is gone. All of the mNAVs are below 1, except Bitmine (which is 1), and that means they can't buy in size.
I don't know who the buyer in size is for ETH at this moment in time. Momentum buyers can show up should BTC break much higher, but that's not the strongest thesis, and not the most attractive trade.
Alt coins need retail, and there are no retail inflows to crypto. This is for various reasons, but a mixture of stocks doing well (plus AI & robotics being faster horses), so why chase shittier, worse returning assets, being rinsed on memes last time they came in, and nothing particularly new, shiny or exciting since the last time they took a look.
Should BTC get some momentum, then of course we will see risk on returning for a bit, and the alts with real fundamentals (utility, revenue, flows and value accrual) should move higher.
The rest will do nothing, or eventually trend towards zero, as they should.
This is a normal maturing process for the industry. I could write more on this, but I think most people understand it now.
I don't think max exposure makes sense with the current set up that we have, and protecting your downside is logical here.
Short term crypto positioning could look like a barbell of BTC, HYPE/alt that has shown strength since 10/10 (ZEC another) + cash. Select alts could be added back depending on BTC's next move.
Fwiw my gut says BTC still has a big move in it, and people have forgotten what it can do when it really trends. But entirely possible people go insane before it happens, if they aren't already mentally ill.
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