I was half joking when I posted this, but I'm dead serious now. Time to download those weights!
My essentials:
- GLM 5.3
- GLM 5.3 Flash
- DeepSeek V4.1 Flash
- Qwen3.8-27B
https://t.co/ELebWsuwin
You'll also notice something else about that chart. It reliably mean reverts. If it doesn't, then the most liquid options market in the world is not efficient. There's a strategy in that too
This holds up at every expiry too. Go out to 7-DTE, 14-DTE. Long term return is 0%. Straddles are a free hedge. A strategy that will profit whenever things get crazy and cost you nothing long term. Just be sure to combine it with other strategies.
https://t.co/SngPxSgd0X
How efficient is the market?
If you bought the SPX 0DTE straddle at 9:31 every morning since May 2022, you paid $3,422,010.
You got back $3,416,418.
1,111 sessions and you're down $5,592. That's 0.16%.
(1 lot at mids before cost)
The path is interesting..
From Jan 2025-Jun 2026, there were 362 trading days. Regular trading hours are 6.5 hours per day. That means that Trump's money manager made:
- 79 trades per day
- 12 trades per hour
- 1 trade every 5 minutes
Gonna show this to my mom who thinks she’s usually correct. @CliffordAsness I find it incredible how many problems surfaced in funds over the past month when the direction of the market has been so sharply up over the past 1.5yrs.
Relationships of all kinds breaking down. CCC rated credits at the wide end of the range with B rated at the very tight end of the range isn’t something seen before.
The game is not really about the direction of technology in history. It's about the prices you pay. In the late 1800s and early 1900s, countless people got carried out betting electricity would be ubiquitous in the future. There are no risky assets. Only risky prices.
https://t.co/kJatinKvT9
one of the great tragedies of markets is you can be staggeringly right about the direction of technology in history but if you're not willing to be near term commercial, near term prideless, you'll get carried out
no one's gonna stop you from dying young and miserable and right
@zeeg@jarredsumner The part that's hardest to believe for me is $550 at API pricing. I can spend $300+ per day just building web apps at API pricing. I guess demos like this don't need authentication or unit tests or anything else a production application requires but still