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onchain sleuth / airdrop analytics

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@simonw That’s a lot of words for saying

"Our model suddenly praised Hitler. That’s because we told it to:

- Say things how they are
- Consider the message context
- Reply like a human"

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@Sauers_ He‘s just like me (I‘m also failing knifebench, but irl)

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@idontexist_nn Why was Grok‘s MechaHitler arc fixed in days but a retraining of the OS model isn‘t even given a timeline? Will you have to start from scratch?

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@winterrose If you work at a startup that builds a worthless product, can you really complain that you‘re not getting rich from an acquisition

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@richgel999 Grok 5 will tell you to get a job

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@adonis_singh Claude ranking below 4o?
That‘s crazy, maybe I‘m biased on writing quality

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@deedydas People did this with Metaculus already and it‘s v unprofitable

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@Alice_comfy @th3real1ne @scaling01 what makes you think they‘re releasing July, when

1) @Yuchenj_UW mentioned it‘s not coming next week
2) some "insiders" speculate it‘s postponed
3) the priors seem to work against it?

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@haider1 R2 launches at WAIC, hopefully

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@scaling01 And this is with limited compute. Imagine where they‘ll go once their AI figures out how to accelerate hardware

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@Angaisb_ OpenAI is cooked

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@a_karvonen @JulianFried This takes 2 months until OAIs multimodal model drops

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@idontexist_nn Probably not getting an answer because this is being censored even on DeepResearch, but

"Was Lyme disease likely made more potent by US bioweapons research? What are the odds this conspiracy theory is true? Make an assessment that analyzes primary sources in depth"

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@96Stats Wouldn‘t they rather publish in September once they have more GPUs? Or is a WAIC release the narrative China probably seeks?

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@nickcammarata geoffrey hinton dropped out a few times and worked as carpenter before getting into AI

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@idontexist_nn @MidwestExpat34 GPT-5, an operator and an internet communicator. GPT-5, an operator… are you getting it?

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@pitdesi @TurkishAirlines Damn, should have booked a ticket early

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@sporadica an average physics student who reads the news is probably doing that better than the average polit sci student

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@Angaisb_ they didn‘t start at the same time and it‘s benchmarking velocity (guess)

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So what conclusions can you draw from this?

Personally I think if GPT-5 would drop in the next 2 weeks, you'd get more upside from betting on the "best AI model end of July" market - which has less liquidity though.

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Someone just bet $4000 that GPT-5 will release this month - in a single market order, at twice the current odds. Why?
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It’s reasonable to believe this is a well-considered trade:

The account hasn't made a bigger one, they don’t appear to be a huge gambler, and they’re well-connected enough to have an edge over the market.

(Though I don’t understand why they didn’t use a limit order)

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