Charlie Bellino

Chief Market Strategist @ Creative Planning

Investor | Writer | Reader | Thinker

Trying to become a little wiser every day.

[Charlie Bellino @charlesbiello]

https://t.co/LvV7d8Ty2e

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

The AI boom is increasingly being built on borrowed money.

AI-related bond issuance has surged to $419 billion so far in 2026, 90% higher than all of 2025.

Every equity bubble inevitably becomes a credit bubble before it bursts.

[Charlie Bellino @charlesbiello]

The AI boom is increasingly being built on borrowed money.

AI-related bond issuance has surged to $419 billion so far in 2026, 90% higher than all of 2025.

Every equity bubble inevitably becomes a credit bubble before it bursts.

[Charlie Bellino @charlesbiello]

New Post:

The State of the Markets...

https://t.co/NbPeRV71EX…

[Charlie Bellino @charlesbiello]

The most absurd number in CPI? According to the US Government, the cost of health insurance has declined 36% over the last 4 years...

[Charlie Bellino @charlesbiello]

Producer Prices in the US rose 6.3% over the last year and 4.2% per year over the last 5 years.

2% inflation is a myth.

The Fed has lost all credibility when it comes to fighting inflation.

[Charlie Bellino @charlesbiello]

Price Increases over last 7 years...
New Cars: +23%
Used Cars: +30%
Groceries: +33%
Shelter: +35%
Family Health Insurance: +38%
Restaurants: +39%
Transportation: +42%
Electricity: +44%
Auto Insurance: +49%
Home Prices: +60%
Gas Utilities: +62%
Gasoline: +64%
Dozen Eggs: +64%

[Charlie Bellino @charlesbiello]

The top 0.1% of US households now own 15% of all household wealth, a record high.

Meanwhile, the bottom 50% own just 2%.

The wealth gap has never been wider.

[Charlie Bellino @charlesbiello]

42% of FHA home buyers used down-payment assistance last year, the highest share on record.

The affordability crisis is reshaping the American Dream.

[Charlie Bellino @charlesbiello]

US real estate stocks are now at their lowest level ever relative to the S&P 500, erasing all of their relative outperformance from the early-to-mid 2000s housing bubble.

[Charlie Bellino @charlesbiello]

Last 30 years...
US National Debt: +665%
S&P 500 Total Return: +1,820%

Government borrowing isn’t necessarily bad for corporations in the short run.

More borrowing → more spending → higher revenues & profits.

The long-term consequences

[Charlie Bellino @charlesbiello]

Global Central Bank Update:
-Australia hiked rates for the 4th time this year, 25 bps move up to 4.60%.

[Charlie Bellino @charlesbiello]

The longest duration Treasury bond ETF is now down 67% from its peak in March 2020.

How is that possible?

The 30-Year Treasury yield has moved from an all-time low of 0.8% in March 2020 up to 5.6% today.

Long duration + Rising interest rates from all-time low levels = Pain

[Charlie Bellino @charlesbiello]

President Trump's 37% job approval rating is the lowest of any president before a midterm election (note: polling data goes back to 1990).

[Charlie Bellino @charlesbiello]

"It's the economy, stupid."

[Charlie Bellino @charlesbiello]

Polymarket: Democrats are now favored to take back the Senate (63% probability) and the House (93% probability) in the midterm elections, the highest odds to date...

[Charlie Bellino @charlesbiello]

America’s demographic tailwind is fading.

Growth in the 25-64 population:
1980s: 1.8% per year
1990s: 1.1% per year
Next decade: 0.3% per year

And that assumes immigration rebounds.

Future economic growth will increasingly depend on productivity gains.

[Charlie Bellino @charlesbiello]

Nike is now down 77% from its peak in November 2021, the largest drawdown in company history. $NKE

[Charlie Bellino @charlesbiello]

Nearly 40% cumulative inflation in a decade.

Trillion-dollar deficits.
Exploding national debt.
Money printing.
A Fed that fanned the flames.

This is what happens when fiscal and monetary discipline disappear. Americans are left paying the bill.

Video: https://t.co/QKqwcSfy6f

[Charlie Bellino @charlesbiello]

The S&P 500's CAPE Ratio has moved up to 41, its highest level since 2000 and above 99% of historical valuations.

Video: https://t.co/QKqwcSfy6f…