John 'The Mustache' Bolton

Macro trader | Building a personal research system | Daily notes on markets, macro, and what I'm learning | DMs open | Not financial advice

[John 'The Mustache' Bolton @Charlesforless]

8/ The bottom line

The easy money has been made. 2026 isn't 2024.

This is a market that punishes complacency:
→ Hike risk is back on the table
→ Geopolitics is binary (Hormuz = on/off switch)
→ AI is the only bid that matters in tech

Trade smaller. Take profits. Let the data come to you.

Follow for more 👤📈

[John 'The Mustache' Bolton @Charlesforless]

Markets weekly recap thread 🧵

This week changed the game:

→ Warsh's first Fed meeting
→ US-Iran peace deal signed
→ Oil crashed, stocks ripped
→ Nasdaq +1.7% Thursday to erase Fed losses

Here's what smart traders are watching next 👇

[John 'The Mustache' Bolton @Charlesforless]

7/ Setup for next week

Markets closed Friday for Juneteenth. Three-day weekend to digest.

Key levels to watch:
• SPX 7,500 support → 7,650 resistance
• NDX 26,500 reclaimed
• VIX sub-15 = complacency

CPI/PPI data drops soon. If hot → the hike trade accelerates fast.

[John 'The Mustache' Bolton @Charlesforless]

3/ Equities are still acting like growth will win.

The S&P 500 jumped 1.1% and the Nasdaq rose 1.9% Thursday, led by tech.

But if rates stay higher for longer, the market is telling you to stay selective — not blindly bullish.

[John 'The Mustache' Bolton @Charlesforless]

Markets just got a 1-2 punch this week nobody's pricing correctly.

1/ The Fed held rates at 3.50-3.75% — but new Chair Kevin Warsh dropped forward guidance entirely and 9 of 18 officials now pencil in a HIKE by year-end.

This isn't the Powell Fed. Read that again. 🧵👇

[John 'The Mustache' Bolton @Charlesforless]

2/ Meanwhile, the US-Iran MOU just reopened the Strait of Hormuz to tanker traffic.

Brent crude is down 9% this week to $79 — and ~37% off its late-April peak.

That's a massive tax cut for every consumer and a real relief valve for inflation-watching central banks.

[John 'The Mustache' Bolton @Charlesforless]

🎯 Bottom line: bullish tape, hawkish Fed, geopolitical tailwind = a rare combo.

But the Warsh Fed means higher realized vol. Don't chase into the weekend. Trim size, keep dry powder for any post-Junteenth gap.

Stay disciplined. See you Monday. (10/10)

[John 'The Mustache' Bolton @Charlesforless]

Markets just closed. Here's what actually moved today and why it matters going into a holiday-shortened week. A thread 🧵 (1/10)

[John 'The Mustache' Bolton @Charlesforless]

🗓️ What to watch next week:
• Markets CLOSED Friday for Juneteenth
• Thin liquidity into 3-day weekend = expect chop
• Reopen Monday June 22
• Big catalyst: any CPI/PCE leaks, more Iran-deal confirmation, semiconductor follow-through (9/10)